2016 Presidential Predictions (General)

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm pretty much doing generic Rep/Dem until after the primary season, so I won't touch it again until then, because obviously, predictions are kind of meaningless at this point

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515

[ElectionsGuy]

I wouldn't usually do this, but I'm updating my prediction (just a little bit). Its clear that Donald Trump is pulling the Republican Party into a more anti-immigration platform. No matter who the nominee is, the whole process of talking about birthright citizenship, the 14th amendment, and restricting legal immigration, is going to hurt Republicans with Latinos and Asians. Therefore, I have moved Nevada to Lean D and New Mexico to Strong D.

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton vs Trump Prognostication

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: CO, MI, MN, NH, WI
Lean D: FL, IA, ME-02, NV, PA, VA
Toss-Up: NE-02, NC, OH
Lean R: AZ, GA
Likely R: AK, IN, MO, MT, UT
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-01, NE-03, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 49 EVs
Lean D: 75 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Lean R: 27 EVs
Likely R: 33 EVs
Safe R: 130 EVs

Democratic: 314 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Republican: 190 EVs

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 44%
Johnson: 3%
Other: 2%

Overall Rating: Lean D (bellwether: PA, NV or IA)

Most likely result in my view is a repeat of 2012 except with North Carolina going narrowly to Clinton. I am perfectly flexible to changing ratings with new polling data, shifts in the race, or worldwide/nationwide events.

Atlas Prediction

May 31st Update

Likely D --> Lean D: ME-02, NH
Toss-Up --> Lean R: NC
Lean R --> Likely R: MO
Likely R --> Safe R: TX, UT

Temporarily, the race has moved in more favorable conditions for Trump, with a slight Clinton advantage still. My atlas prediction remains the same, but a Hillary win of 3-6% is more likely now with the current conditions.

July 5th Update

Lean R --> Toss-Up: NC
Safe R --> Likely R: UT

Added Overall Vote Prediction

August 1st Update

Lean D --> Likely D: CO
Likely D --> Lean D: NV

Updated Overall Vote Prediction

So Nevada is showing signs of being more competitive than previously thought. I will give the benefit of the doubt to Democrats since they are usually underestimated in the state polling and data, so I do not plan on ever moving to toss-up, but I can move it Likely D again. Colorado is because three polls came out averaging Clinton +10, and the state has one of the most college educated electorates in the nation, terrible news for Trump. Of course, flexible and can move back to Lean D. I do feel weird having Nevada more competitive than Colorado, but have to go with it for now.

8/6/16 Update

GA: Likely R --> Lean R
NH: Lean D --> Likely D

Updated Overall Vote Prediction

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to do a new one of these for all the changes that have come from the recent week or so in Clinton's direction.

Clinton vs Trump Ratings

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: CO, ME-02, MI, MN, NH, PA, VA, WI
Lean D: FL, NV, OH
Toss-Up: AZ, IA, NE-02, NC
Lean R: GA, MO
Likely R: AK, IN, MT, NE-01, SC, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-03, ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 83 EVs
Lean D: 53 EVs
Toss-Up: 33 EVs
Lean R: 26 EVs
Likely R: 65 EVs
Safe R: 88 EVs

Democratic: 326 EVs
Toss-Up: 33 EVs
Republican: 179 EVs

Atlas Prediction

Ratings I'm stuck on: Nevada (Lean D vs Likely D), both Dakotas (Safe R vs Likely R), Texas (Safe R vs Likely R), Indiana (Likely R vs Lean R). Particularly because we haven't seen polls from many places other than battlegrounds. Nevada and Indiana particularly look weird, but I may update them in the coming weeks.

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 50%
Trump: 44%
Johnson: 4%
Other: 2%

Rating: Likely D, bellwether: Colorado, Pennsylvania

August 16th Update

AZ: Lean R --> Toss-Up
TX: Safe R --> Likely R

August 23rd Update

UT: Likely R --> Safe R

September 9th Update

IA: Lean D --> Toss-Up

Changed Overall Vote Prediction

[ElectionsGuy]

Hillary on the downswing:

PA - Lean D to Toss-Up
NJ - Safe D to Lean D
RI - Safe D to Lean D
ME-2 - Lean D to Toss-Up
ME-AL - Safe D to Lean D
NE-2 - Toss-Up to Lean R

Oh give me a break. Do you actually believe those Washington Post numbers that much?

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe Clinton: 190
Likely Clinton: 62
Lean Clinton: 27
Toss-Up: 69
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 27
Safe Trump: 136

Clinton: 279
Trump: 190
Toss-Up: 69

Overall: Lean Clinton
Tipping Point: Pennsylvania
Bellwether: Pennsylvania

[ElectionsGuy]

Ratings

Safe D: 190
Likely D: 82   <-- Overall
Lean D: 51
Toss-Up: 36
Lean R: 32
Likely R: 65
Safe R: 82

Clinton: 323✔
Trump: 179
Toss-Up: 36

Prediction

Clinton/Kaine: 348
Trump/Pence: 190

Specific State and CD percentages

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Predictions

Here

Final Ratings

Safe D: 185
Likely D: 87
Lean D: 36
Toss-Up: 34
Lean R: 17
Likely R: 46
Safe R: 133

Clinton: 308✔
Trump: 196
Toss-up: 34

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm doing a post-prediction analysis and recording how wrong I was in each state. Clinton +2 means I was 2 points more favorable for Clinton than the actual result, etc.

Alabama: Clinton +2
Alaska: Clinton +3
Arizona: Trump +2
Arkansas: Clinton +5
California: Trump +1 (so far)
Colorado: Clinton +4
Connecticut: Clinton +7
Delaware: Clinton +7
District of Columbia: Trump +4
Florida: Clinton +5
Georgia: Trump +1
Hawaii: Clinton +5
Idaho: Clinton +4 (+2 McMullin)
Illinois: Clinton +3
Indiana: Clinton +10 (ouch)
Iowa: Clinton +3
Kansas: Clinton +2
Kentucky: Clinton +6
Louisiana: Clinton +3
Maine: Clinton +13 (embarrassing)
Maryland: Clinton +3
Massachusetts: Trump +3
Michigan: Clinton +11
Minnesota: Clinton +10
Mississippi: Clinton +5
Missouri: Clinton +10
Montana: Clinton +7
Nebraska: Clinton +9
Nevada: Clinton +4
New Hampshire: Clinton +7
New Jersey: Clinton +3
New Mexico: Clinton +2
New York: Clinton +7
North Carolina: Clinton +5
North Dakota: Clinton +19 (oops)
Ohio: Clinton +7
Oklahoma: Clinton +4
Oregon: Clinton +6
Pennsylvania: Clinton +7
Rhode Island: Clinton +10
South Carolina: Clinton +6
South Dakota: Clinton +14 (another oops)
Tennessee: Clinton +5
Texas: Even
Utah: Trump +5 (McMullin +1)
Vermont: Clinton +3
Virginia: Clinton +3
Washington: Clinton +4 (so far)
West Virginia: Clinton +11 (ouch)
Wisconsin: Clinton +8
Wyoming: Clinton +8

Overall: Clinton +3
Electoral: Clinton +91