Which states will flip from 2012 in a Clinton vs Trump matchup?
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  Which states will flip from 2012 in a Clinton vs Trump matchup?
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Question: Which states/districts will have a different result when compared to 2012?
#1
ME-2
 
#2
New Hampshire
 
#3
Pennsylvania
 
#4
Ohio
 
#5
Michigan
 
#6
Indiana
 
#7
Wisconsin
 
#8
Minnesota
 
#9
Iowa
 
#10
Missouri
 
#11
Virginia
 
#12
North Carolina
 
#13
Georgia
 
#14
Florida
 
#15
Colorado
 
#16
Arizona
 
#17
NE-2
 
#18
Nevada
 
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Author Topic: Which states will flip from 2012 in a Clinton vs Trump matchup?  (Read 10434 times)
AGA
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« on: June 01, 2016, 04:23:07 PM »

Many are saying that Clinton will prevail in this election and flip some traditionally Republican states such as Georgia or Arizona, and others say that Trump's appeal to working class voters in the Midwest can give him a win. Which states/districts will have a different result when compared to 2012?
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LLR
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2016, 06:33:39 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2016, 08:50:46 PM by The Artist Formerly Known as LLR »

NC, GA, AZ, NE-2

Also SC, but that's not listed.
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Santander
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« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2016, 08:02:10 PM »

IA, OH, FL, PA and WI in that order.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2016, 10:15:09 PM »

The way things stand right now, just NC. In a great election for Clinton, NE-2, GA, IN, and MO are theoretically possible, though unlikely. In a great election for Trump, FL, OH, PA, VA, IA, and CO are possible.
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AGA
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« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2016, 02:59:45 PM »

NC, GA, AZ, NE-2

Also SC, but that's not listed.

South Carolina has not voted for a Democrat since 1976. There was a Clinton vs Trump poll conducted in November that had Trump up by 5 points, but we'll see.
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LLR
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2016, 03:06:49 PM »

NC, GA, AZ, NE-2

Also SC, but that's not listed.

South Carolina has not voted for a Democrat since 1976. There was a Clinton vs Trump poll conducted in November that had Trump up by 5 points, but we'll see.

ANGRY URBAN MOMS WILL CARRY CLINTON TO VICTORY
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2016, 07:15:48 PM »

NC, GA, AZ, NE-2

Also SC, but that's not listed.

South Carolina has not voted for a Democrat since 1976. There was a Clinton vs Trump poll conducted in November that had Trump up by 5 points, but we'll see.
ANGRY URBAN MOMS WILL CARRY CLINTON TO VICTORY

SHHH!!!

You don't want you-know-who to start developing a South Carolina obsession, do you? Tongue
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2016, 09:39:13 PM »

NC, GA, AZ, NE-2

Also SC, but that's not listed.

South Carolina has not voted for a Democrat since 1976. There was a Clinton vs Trump poll conducted in November that had Trump up by 5 points, but we'll see.
ANGRY URBAN MOMS WILL CARRY CLINTON TO VICTORY

SHHH!!!

You don't want you-know-who to start developing a South Carolina obsession, do you? Tongue

Run for your lives! The big women are angry! Save yourselves while there's still time! No! I'm trying to warn you! They're already here! They're ready to take over!
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2016, 06:56:46 PM »

If, as I'm expecting, Trump wins by 3-5 nationally:

OH, (NC), IA, PA, FL, WI, ME-02, VA, MI (in that order)

Closest Clinton wins: NH, MN, NV, OR, ME at large, NJ
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2016, 07:26:02 PM »

NC, GA, AZ, NE-2

Also SC, but that's not listed.

South Carolina has not voted for a Democrat since 1976. There was a Clinton vs Trump poll conducted in November that had Trump up by 5 points, but we'll see.
ANGRY URBAN MOMS WILL CARRY CLINTON TO VICTORY

SHHH!!!

You don't want you-know-who to start developing a South Carolina obsession, do you? Tongue

Run for your lives! The big women are angry! Save yourselves while there's still time! No! I'm trying to warn you! They're already here! They're ready to take over!
Relax. He won't get obsessed unless the state somehow has an all-female Congressional delegation (and one or both of the females Senators are Democrats).
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2016, 08:08:43 PM »

NC, MO, AZ, NE-2
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2016, 01:43:20 PM »

Utah has a better chance of flipping than some of these states.
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Lachi
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 01:02:00 AM »

In this order: NC, GA, AZ, NE-2,

MAYBE SC.

UT only if Johnson does well, he MIGHT help give it to Clinton on plurality.
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2016, 09:55:18 PM »

My current prediction is NC and NE-2.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2016, 02:37:00 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2016, 03:05:01 PM by Da-Jon »

Trump will come close in Iowa, but NEB 2 will be the only 1

VA and OH were supposed to flip but Trump won't win them.
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Lachi
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2016, 08:06:39 PM »

In this order: NC, GA, AZ, NE-2,

MAYBE SC.

UT only if Johnson does well, he MIGHT help give it to Clinton on plurality.
Remove UT and SC completely, move AZ to very unlikely, Move GA to possible, keeping NC and NE-2 as probable.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2016, 09:55:01 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2016, 10:06:49 PM by Da-Jon »

FL, Iowa, NV and OH

Clinton holds onto 272 VA, CO, Pa & NH, ME 2 should be interesting. But, Kaine was a smart pick in maintaining VA for special and have Senate majority for 2 full years
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Buffalo Bill
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2016, 02:22:11 PM »

Way too early to tell.  A month ago I would've said Trump will be lucky to get 100 EV.  Now he could get close to 300 if things continue in their direction.  I'll tell you the night before the election.
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Eharding
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« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2017, 10:07:51 PM »

IA, OH, FL, PA and WI in that order.

-Solid.
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Eharding
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« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2017, 12:15:20 AM »

If, as I'm expecting, Trump wins by 3-5 nationally:

OH, (NC), IA, PA, FL, WI, ME-02, VA, MI (in that order)

Closest Clinton wins: NH, MN, NV, OR, ME at large, NJ
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #20 on: January 29, 2017, 06:20:10 PM »

If, as I'm expecting, Trump wins by 3-5 nationally:

OH, (NC), IA, PA, FL, WI, ME-02, VA, MI (in that order)

Closest Clinton wins: NH, MN, NV, OR, ME at large, NJ

If only I had left off Virginia...
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Figueira
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« Reply #21 on: January 29, 2017, 07:32:15 PM »

If, as I'm expecting, Trump wins by 3-5 nationally:

OH, (NC), IA, PA, FL, WI, ME-02, VA, MI (in that order)

Closest Clinton wins: NH, MN, NV, OR, ME at large, NJ

If only I had left off Virginia...

In your defense, this was posted before Tim Kaine was announced as Clinton's running mate.
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