2000 Without Nader?
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  2000 Without Nader?
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Author Topic: 2000 Without Nader?  (Read 2911 times)
Free Bird
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« on: May 10, 2015, 06:13:53 PM »

What would the map look like, assuming Nader took about 5/6 of his support from Gore?
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2015, 06:17:55 PM »

new hampshire and florida are the only two states that flip
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Free Bird
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2015, 06:20:06 PM »

What would the map look like, assuming Nader took about 5/6 of his support from Gore?

Junk assumption. Tongue
2000 without Nader would have looked like this:



GASP! HOW IS NH STILL RED, GUYS?!?!?!?!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2015, 06:20:48 PM »

2000 map with Gore winning Florida and New Hampshire.

Dubya goes into political obscurity, 9/11 never happens.

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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2015, 06:36:22 PM »

nh was 48.1/46.8/3.9. if gore gets at least 2/3 of the nader vote, he wins.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2015, 06:37:32 PM »

2000 map with Gore winning Florida and New Hampshire.

Dubya goes into political obscurity, 9/11 never happens.



Al Gore being elected prevents al Queda from attacking NYC?...  Okay...
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2015, 07:08:06 PM »

Nader didn't take 5/6 of his support from Gore, but he certainly took more votes from Gore than he did from Bush. Florida definitely flips. New Hampshire is iffy because you do have to account for the fact that  a chunk of Nader voters would have just stayed home had Nader not been on the ballot.
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Hydera
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2015, 07:34:31 PM »

Nader didn't take 5/6 of his support from Gore, but he certainly took more votes from Gore than he did from Bush. Florida definitely flips. New Hampshire is iffy because you do have to account for the fact that  a chunk of Nader voters would have just stayed home had Nader not been on the ballot.

http://www.cbsnews.com/campaign2000results/state/poll_flop-.html

Nader's votes actually came from liberals who voted for perot in 1996 as a protest vote.

66-33 of them approved of Clinton on his job. and disapproved 66-33 on him as a person.

While fewwwwwwwww of his support came from ideological conservatives.

Most of his voters were young college students that didn't have much income at all.



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Mister Mets
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2015, 09:12:56 PM »

It might be enough to flip Florida or New Hampshire.

On the other hand, the people who voted Nader might not have gone to the polls if he wasn't available.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2015, 10:10:47 PM »

Certainly Florida would have flipped to Gore. But beyond the voters that would have voted Gore instead of Nader, you also have to consider that Gore would have had to have done less campaigning in "safe states" where he was hurt by Nader and playing defense, giving him the opportunity to devote more time and resources to offense. If I remember correctly, he was still campaigning in states like Illinois and Minnesota in the final few days of the election.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2015, 10:37:21 PM »

2000 map with Gore winning Florida and New Hampshire.

Dubya goes into political obscurity, 9/11 never happens.



Al Gore being elected prevents al Queda from attacking NYC?...  Okay...

He reads the intelligence reports and acts appropriately.
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2015, 10:38:32 PM »

2000 map with Gore winning Florida and New Hampshire.

Dubya goes into political obscurity, 9/11 never happens.



Al Gore being elected prevents al Queda from attacking NYC?...  Okay...

He reads the intelligence reports and acts appropriately.
Gore would not have ignored the intel just because it came from the Clinton admin.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2015, 11:02:06 PM »

2000 map with Gore winning Florida and New Hampshire.

Dubya goes into political obscurity, 9/11 never happens.



Al Gore being elected prevents al Queda from attacking NYC?...  Okay...

He reads the intelligence reports and acts appropriately.

And what "appropriate" action by the president would have led to Mohammed Atta getting caught?
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jfern
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« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2015, 11:46:08 PM »

2000 map with Gore winning Florida and New Hampshire.

Dubya goes into political obscurity, 9/11 never happens.

9/11 had better not happen the way it did with Bush, because Gore probably either resigns or is impeached and removed from office. The Democratic party would probably be dead for a decade if an 8/06/01 memo came out.
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Slander and/or Libel
Figs
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2015, 08:40:23 AM »

Gore probably actually won Florida with Nader, if a proper recount were to have been done. Without him I don't think there's even really a question what would have happened.
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TNF
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2015, 08:49:35 AM »

Jeb still steals the election for Dubya in Florida, but Democrats blame whoever the Greens run anyway, because they're mad that people don't love Al "I invented the Internet" Gore, the wishy-washy centrist technocrat, enough to fight for him to assume the office he won
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2015, 09:25:31 AM »

Florida may or may not flip, but NH does. Nader absolutely cost Gore the election.

9/11 still happens, Gore responds with limited military action in Afghanistan. McCain crushes him in '04.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2015, 09:39:47 AM »

Maybe a state flips in Gore's favor, maybe it doesn't. That's life and we'll never know. 9/11 probably happens in the same way, except with different types of responses if Gore won (no Iraq war).
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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2015, 09:42:22 AM »

Florida may or may not flip, but NH does. Nader absolutely cost Gore the election.

9/11 still happens, Gore responds with limited military action in Afghanistan. McCain crushes him in '04.

I read somewhere (and also stated by Nadar), that you need to multiply the Nadar vote by about 15%, to come up with what it cost Gore in margins. So yes, only Florida flips. Of course, without the butterfly ballot in Palm Beach county, Gore would have carried Florida anyway by about 5,000 votes.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2015, 09:59:24 AM »

I don't think 9/11 would have happened under Gore, because I doubt he would have ignored the warnings as Bush did.

As for the election, Gore would have carried Florida without Nader on the ballot. Of course, with Bush's brother in charge, it was possible that Florida was always guaranteed to go to Bush.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2015, 03:36:42 PM »

Gore wins New Hampshire and thus the election.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2015, 08:11:15 PM »

I don't think 9/11 would have happened under Gore, because I doubt he would have ignored the warnings as Bush did.

What, specifically, would he have done that would have led to Mohamed Atta getting caught?
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2015, 08:15:57 PM »

but Democrats blame whoever the Greens run anyway

right.  there was space on the left for a third-party run after Clinton consciously severed the remnants of the New Deal Democratic party, turned it into full-on business party, attacked labor right out of the gate and govered from the center-right.  a non-Nader Green type could have pulled 1.5% or so.  whether that means Gore would've eked out a win, given the razor thin margins we're talking about, maybe so.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2015, 08:52:45 PM »

Normally I agree with TNF that it's stupid to blame third parties, but come on, he lost by literally 500 votes. At least 500 Nader votes would have switched to Gore.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2015, 09:35:12 PM »

I don't think 9/11 would have happened under Gore, because I doubt he would have ignored the warnings as Bush did.

What, specifically, would he have done that would have led to Mohamed Atta getting caught?


Nothing.  At all.
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