If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors...

[minionofmidas]

...nobody knows, since in that case there'd either be much less gerrymandering or a revolution would have occurred ages ago.

[minionofmidas]

2000 data is on this site if you look closely. I think you have to be a member to get the exact data, but you can do a map count. Anyways Bush wins.
2004 data isn't completely compiled yet, but I don't doubt Bush wins again.

[minionofmidas]

Depending on two seats that Dave considers too close to call, and my reading of the California map, Bush would have had anything from 283 to 286 EVs in 2000.

[minionofmidas]

Going by the states that are up,
Bush gains 14
Kerry loses 11
due to about equal parts to reapportionment,  regerrymandering and the Republicans' larger majority.
Tossup/don't know loses 1 (I can decipher the California map, being more comfortable with the new districts. There is a new tctc district in NC to replace the one in TN.)
Overall gain of 2 because the states not up yet lost 2 seats net. They are:
Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, and Washington.