UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao

[Slow Learner]

Could this be the next Labour PM?

Muslim’s Labour Candidacy Shapes London Mayoral Race

By STEPHEN CASTLE
APRIL 30, 2016

LONDON —

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I do think Sadiq is fantastic, though maybe that's because he's running against Zac 'he'z a Mooslem' Goldsmith.

He really has handled that muslim issue well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will the next London election take place in 2021 to avoid conflict with the 2020 general?

(Five year terms really screw up the calander)

[IceAgeComing]

They've moved the Scottish, Welsh and NI elections to avoid it, so there's definitely precedent for it.  The question is whether they see the London things as being merely Local elections so less in need of fixing the term length...

The most sensible thing to do would be to change Westminster to four year terms, its a much better term length.  Sure the Euros would be a bit odd and would clash with Westminster every twenty years, but honestly that doesn't really matter, I don't see the issue with the European elections actually getting a good turnout every so often...

[rob in cal]

   Don't know if this has been discussed, but anyone have thoughts how a Prime Minister Milliband would have handled the Migrant issue ongoing in  Europe compared to how Cameron and the Tory government are handling it?  Would he have called for more Syrians, and others as well, being allowed into the UK than Cameron has?

[Blair]

Tbh Miliband would have taken more child refugees in, but everyone in Labour circles knows how much immigration is a major issue; but he would have done much more hopefully.

On other issues Sadiq has done really well- I saw him in 2014 (wasn't impressed at all), and didn't vote for him in the Primary in 2015 (think he was my 3rd choice) However- he'll most likely be the only leadership contender in 2020 who would have governing experience (most of the shadow cabinet doesn't even!!!)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Will Khan retain Tooting? I know Johnson has been both Mayor and MP for the past year.

[afleitch]

Will Khan retain Tooting? I know Johnson has been both Mayor and MP for the past year.

It's Khans choice. There's no requirement for him to stand down. Boris was a special case in a way (end of his second term). However logistically, given the particulars of the Mayor's role, he will probably have to. If he does, i'd expect to see a by-election on the same date as the EU referendum.

[Slow Learner]

Will Khan retain Tooting? I know Johnson has been both Mayor and MP for the past year.

I'm hoping that he'll give it up. It'll look bad if he doesn't.

I have the feeling that Davie Miliband might get involved in the by-election, however...

[Phony Moderate]

Believe he's said that he'd said down.

[Blair]

Do any of the Labourites here know how the selection process works for by-elections? It will be chaos if David Miliband tries to jump, as momentum will try and flood Tooting CLP with members.

Bigger problem is that Tooting is a tory targeted marginal, albeit it in London   

[Blair]

For the record the laborites I've spoke to in london are very worried about turnout, especially in my own constituency which has a 13,000 lab majority

[Hifly]

Do any of the Labourites here know how the selection process works for by-elections? It will be chaos if David Miliband tries to jump, as momentum will try and flood Tooting CLP with members.

Bigger problem is that Tooting is a tory targeted marginal, albeit it in London   

NEC panel will interview and shortlist; shortlisted candidates go through to full members selection. Usually the requirement of 6 months membership before voting is applied.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

For the record the laborites I've spoke to in london are very worried about turnout, especially in my own constituency which has a 13,000 lab majority

So, how much should I, as someone who quite likes Khan and hates the philandering race-baiter, be panicking right now?

[dspNY]

Supposedly Labour is going to lose a lot of councillor seats. They had a row/dispute about anti-Semitic undertones among some party members that Corbyn never dealt with effectively.

However Khan looks set to win in London

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Supposedly Labour is going to lose a lot of councillor seats. They had a row/dispute about anti-Semitic undertones among some party members that Corbyn never dealt with effectively.

Yeah, I know. And frankly some of them have some of it coming.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's what I was concerned about, so good.

[dspNY]

Supposedly Labour is going to lose a lot of councillor seats. They had a row/dispute about anti-Semitic undertones among some party members that Corbyn never dealt with effectively.

Yeah, I know. And frankly some of them have some of it coming.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's what I was concerned about, so good.

And on top of that, Labour's structural problems are so dire that the Tories will pretty much occupy 10 Downing for the foreseeable future unless all of the following things happen:

1. Labour somehow gains traction and topples some of the Scottish nationalists. Labour's path to a majority is virtually impossible without Scotland unless there is some incredible crisis that the Tories are blamed for.
2. Labour stops losing voters to UKIP and gains them back. Some blue collar workers are flocking to Farage in the UK over anti-immigrant feelings just like they are flocking to Trump in the States.
3. Labour finds a leader who is between Corbyn (too far left for the UK) and Blair (too moderate). They swung from one extreme to the other and have a leader who is as unpopular and lowly regarded as Tony Benn in the 80s. Maybe Khan, who looks like he will win the London election, is that guy.
4. Labour gets the anti-Semites out of their party. The Tories will pretty much beat them like a drum over this.
5. Labour and the Lib-Dems come closer together than they have been in some time to develop a coalition if the votes are there for Labour to potentially form a minority government. There is serious bad blood between Lab and Lib over Clegg selling out to Cameron

[Slow Learner]

So...Labour did alright in England and Wales, then?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Supposedly Labour is going to lose a lot of councillor seats. They had a row/dispute about anti-Semitic undertones among some party members that Corbyn never dealt with effectively.

Yeah, I know. And frankly some of them have some of it coming.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's what I was concerned about, so good.

And on top of that, Labour's structural problems are so dire that the Tories will pretty much occupy 10 Downing for the foreseeable future unless all of the following things happen:

1. Labour somehow gains traction and topples some of the Scottish nationalists. Labour's path to a majority is virtually impossible without Scotland unless there is some incredible crisis that the Tories are blamed for.
2. Labour stops losing voters to UKIP and gains them back. Some blue collar workers are flocking to Farage in the UK over anti-immigrant feelings just like they are flocking to Trump in the States.
3. Labour finds a leader who is between Corbyn (too far left for the UK) and Blair (too moderate). They swung from one extreme to the other and have a leader who is as unpopular and lowly regarded as Tony Benn in the 80s. Maybe Khan, who looks like he will win the London election, is that guy.
4. Labour gets the anti-Semites out of their party. The Tories will pretty much beat them like a drum over this.
5. Labour and the Lib-Dems come closer together than they have been in some time to develop a coalition if the votes are there for Labour to potentially form a minority government. There is serious bad blood between Lab and Lib over Clegg selling out to Cameron

I'm very aware of all these problems. I still support (meaning, essentially, since I'm not British, 'root for') Labour.

[Cassius]

So...Labour did alright in England and Wales, then?

Well, I don't think you can really say they did alright in Wales. Whilst they did better than was perhaps expected regarding their seat count (although I personally never thought they would be in danger of losing seats to the Tories, and there are only about three Labour held seats that Plaid were capable of managing a strong challenge in, one of which they won), and at the end of the day that's what matters vis a vis government formation, they still shed a lot of votes almost right across the country, with odd exceptions like Arfon. Labour benefited from the fact that there isn't (and hasn't really been since 1999) one party that can definitively claim to be the 'government in waiting'. The existing opposition parties all have different regional bases (the Tories in Monmouth, the Vale and parts of Cardiff, Pembrokeshire and select areas of Central and North Wales, Plaid in predominantly Welsh speaking areas and the Valleys, the Lib Dems now largely in their traditional rural Mid Wales heartlands), and none can hope to challenge Labour for every constituency. UKIP has now further added to this fragmentation, to the detriment (seats wise) of the Conservatives and Lib Dems. Furthermore of course, unlike in Scotland, Labour still have a lot of very safe seats that they'd have to be doing incredibly badly to lose.

I'd also say of course that Labour were quite lucky in some constituencies, particularly the Vales and Blaenau Gwent, and if they had lost those we would be looking at a very different result. As is, just over a third of the vote is hardly a ringing endorsement given that Labour got 42% five years ago and have won more than 50% of the vote in parliamentary elections of the not too distant past. But, then again, I suppose it's still more of a ringing endorsement than for any of the other parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was a pretty poor result that doesn't look it in terms of seats because of enough incumbents with enough personal votes (though equally a seat was lost because of such factors), but the reasons for that aren't really related to the GB-wide troubles.

Comparisons to past parliamentary elections are silly though; the voters treat Assembly elections as a giant local poll and council issues often end up having a impact on results

[Blair]

Dianne Abbott came wading in this morning claiming that Sadiqs victory (not confirmed) was due to Corbyn- ultimate irony is that even Corbynites hate Abbott. Only figure in the party more hated than my namesake.

Rant aside it wasn't as bad as I thought- the welsh results were just in line with the past (barring 2011) but Labor need to be careful as Plaid are coming up as a poor-mans SNP- the gastly Neil Hamilton has returned to public office. The biggest problem with the list system

[Slow Learner]

Dianne Abbott came wading in this morning claiming that Sadiqs victory (not confirmed) was due to Corbyn- ultimate irony is that even Corbynites hate Abbott. Only figure in the party more hated than my namesake.

Rant aside it wasn't as bad as I thought- the welsh results were just in line with the past (barring 2011) but Labor need to be careful as Plaid are coming up as a poor-mans SNP- the gastly Neil Hamilton has returned to public office. The biggest problem with the list system

Dude wtf

[Cassius]

Dianne Abbott came wading in this morning claiming that Sadiqs victory (not confirmed) was due to Corbyn- ultimate irony is that even Corbynites hate Abbott. Only figure in the party more hated than my namesake.

Rant aside it wasn't as bad as I thought- the welsh results were just in line with the past (barring 2011) but Labor need to be careful as Plaid are coming up as a poor-mans SNP- the gastly Neil Hamilton has returned to public office. The biggest problem with the list system

Plaid will never achieve SNP levels of success because they continue to be seen by most people as the party of Welsh speakers, which isn't a winning strategy whenever three quarters of the population can't speak Welsh. Plaid being bound tightly to the Welsh language movement (to put it crudely) does give it a fairly rock solid base in some areas, but stunts its capacity for growth into an actual 'party of Wales'.

Aside from that, Neil Hamilton in the Welsh Assembly should be a laugh.

[dspNY]

Apparently Khan wanted nothing to do with Corbyn and hewed the middle road between Corbyn's socialism and Blair's centrism to win

[Blair]

Dianne Abbott came wading in this morning claiming that Sadiqs victory (not confirmed) was due to Corbyn- ultimate irony is that even Corbynites hate Abbott. Only figure in the party more hated than my namesake.

Rant aside it wasn't as bad as I thought- the welsh results were just in line with the past (barring 2011) but Labor need to be careful as Plaid are coming up as a poor-mans SNP- the gastly Neil Hamilton has returned to public office. The biggest problem with the list system

Dude wtf

A whole year of training myself on Atlasia to say Labour the incorrect was has clearly damaged me