United Nations Secretary-General selection, 2016

[Simfan34]

I've said it before, the Bulgarian UNESCO chief seems like the favourite here.

[Simfan34]

Since I've brought up Ban Ki-moon's political future recently, I thought this deserved a bump. Irina Bokova still appears to be as much of a shoe-in as ever. This may very well turn out to be the least competitive Secretary-General election (note to Retromike: this is an election rather than a "selection") since Dag Hammarskjöld was chosen back in 1956. No viable competitor to Bolkova appears to have emerged as of yet. I consider to be so heavily favoured for the post for three reasons--

1. She's a woman. There has not as of yet been a woman Secretary-General, which seems a glaring omission for an organisation as progressive (not necessarily in the American sense) as the United Nations, especially considering its recent push for women's rights. There was a significant clamour from many quarters for a woman to be elected back in 2006, which failed despite receiving support from some permanent members of the Security Council, as well as the incumbent Kofi Annan, primarily because it was then felt that the Secretary-General should come from an Asian country (it is said that China would have actually vetoed a non-Asian candidate), and (apparently) no suitable female Asian candidate could be found. Now, however, the feeling is that a woman is long overdue for the post and should be elected.

2. She's from Eastern Europe. There also has not yet been a Secretary-General from the Eastern European Group, which essentially is the former Eastern Bloc. The UN has more recently tended to rotate the post between regions, and the fact that no Secretary-General has come from this region suggests that they would naturally be in line for a turn.

3 She would be accepted by the Russians. The problem with most potential candidates in Eastern Europe, women included, is that their career in multinational organisations (if they have had one) has involved a stint in the European Union. Most potential candidates from this region, therefore, are likely to be pro-European and, by, extension, anti-Russian. The UN has until now shied away from career politicians, and this now seems unlikely to change-- and even if not, any officeholder nominated by a contemporary government would almost certainly be just as pro-European, if not more. Russia, of course, can veto any candidate it did not find to its liking. It would appear that there would be no acceptable candidate, woman or not, from Eastern Europe-- if not for Bokova. Bokova was Bulgaria's foreign minister back in the 1990s but has not been involved in front-line politics since, instead holding a number of diplomatic posts before becoming UNESCO chief. To sweeten the deal even further for the Russians, she is a member of the Socialist Party and studied in the Soviet Union (but also in the United States).

Thus we are essentially left with one person who fits the desired criteria for Secretary-General.

[Simfan34]

Working at the UN now, and Bokova still seems likely. The French will still veto anyone who doesn't speak the language. Ban seems to have tricked them on this.

On Monday they had a debate.

[Simfan34]

Kevin Rudd would be cool.

Helle Thorning-Schmidt would be a good choice.

Neither of these people are candidates.

[Simfan34]

The process is already underway. There's no way for him to jump in, just like Romney cannot jump in the US election at this point.

Russia is known to be insisting that the rotation be followed. So while this would apparently give Turk the lead, there will be a lot of gnashing of teeth if a woman is not chosen.

[Simfan34]

It won't be Rudd.

Turnbull continues to be a petty piece of sh*t.

Jesus Christ people how many times must I say that the process has already started. The time for nominations has long passed; the Security Council is already voting. It's been a year now. It's completely ridiculous to complain about someone doing the impossible.

[Simfan34]

Idiot.

[Simfan34]

Hoping it will be António Guterres

I'm increasingly hearing the Russians won't allow it.

Certain members saying the General Assembly might even revolt if the Security Council puts him forward (because a) he is not Eastern European, breaking the rotation convention, b) he is, on top of that, a Westerner, raising the spectre of continually electing Westerners if the convention is broken, and c) he's not a woman) but I doubt that.

On the other hand I'm quite certain the belief of some (within the UN!) that the General Assembly must approve the Council's selection is incorrect. Dag Hammarskjold and U Thant were elected by secret ballot. But there is a lot of demand for an actual, substantive appointment resolution making all sorts of demands of the new SG rather than a pro forma resolution adopted by consensus that says "The General Assembly hereby appoints xxx as Secretary-General for a term of five years...", although I don't necessarily see any real movement towards starting the process for drafting an actual resolution.