25 Years From Now. . .

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here is my prediction

Very interesting. Seeing as (IMO anyway) your analysis is usually worth reading, I'd be interested to know why you think that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of the biggest trends in American politics over the past 5 years you see is the rise of economic liberalism and the decline of social liberalism. As with other trends I see this not only as a U.S. trend but a worldwide trend,

Interestingly the same sort of thing seems to be happening over here; some of the rhetoric (and policies) coming from Labour have been much more leftish than the previous two elections (they're being more open about the re-distributive stuff as well) while the Tories have not tried the usual "we'll slash spending and cut yer taxes" trick they've been using since 1979 as much as normal (Flight got fired for suggesting that they'd do that if they won the election...) which would seem to indicate that it's not electorally popular anymore. The decline of social liberalism in the U.K is very obvious from UKIP's strong showing in last years Euro elections, and the increasly hardline stances politicians are taking on immigration/multiculturalism/crime/asylum seekers/etc.

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Interesting theory that

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Also very interesting

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IMO his entire strategy was wrong; he shouldn't have bothered with states where the economy hadn't been doing all that bad, he should have concentrated more on the rust belt.

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Maybe they have; they got Casey to run for Senate after all.

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Very interesting. Thanks for the analysis.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thing is some things are predictable if your willing to think the unthinkable; 1948 clearly showed that a large rift had opened up between the Deep South Democrats and the national Party for example.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think the law & order rhetoric and especially the anti-immigration rhetoric we're getting over here is really socially conservative.

I tend to think that it is (up to a point) in the U.K, mainly because the last time there was a lot of it (early '70's) was effectively a backlash to the percieved (and IMO innacurate; 20 million people watched the Black and White Minstels every week in the '60's...) liberalism of the '60's.

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Very true. We'll only find that out for sure on friday morning, but I have a suspicion that while a lot of socially conservative people have liked the vicious attacks on immigrants, a lot of others have been appalled by it. Have to wait... oh... 48 hours or so to find out though.

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Very true, but the thing is, it wasn't seen like that by the rest of the world.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Georgia moving *towards* the Democrats? You're having a laugh aren't you?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think you're whole theory is probably deeply flawed, but seeing as it's one a lot of other people have come out with there's no point attacking you'res especially

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interestingly the same sort of thing seems to be happening over here; some of the rhetoric (and policies) coming from Labour have been much more leftish than the previous two elections (they're being more open about the re-distributive stuff as well) while the Tories have not tried the usual "we'll slash spending and cut yer taxes" trick they've been using since 1979 as much as normal (Flight got fired for suggesting that they'd do that if they won the election...) which would seem to indicate that it's not electorally popular anymore. The decline of social liberalism in the U.K is very obvious from UKIP's strong showing in last years Euro elections, and the increasly hardline stances politicians are taking on immigration/multiculturalism/crime/asylum seekers/etc.

My suspicions of what the result pattens were be were broadly correct.
I'll write some stuff up on this (and conclusions for U.S trends) later today.