25 Years From Now. . . (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 08:00:12 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  25 Years From Now. . . (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 25 Years From Now. . .  (Read 11422 times)
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,905


« on: May 01, 2005, 09:07:29 PM »

Here is my prediction

Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,905


« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2005, 12:53:02 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2005, 12:57:26 PM by thefactor »


Very interesting. Seeing as (IMO anyway) your analysis is usually worth reading, I'd be interested to know why you think that.

This is basically my current view of what would happen if the Thomas Frank view of the party was revived. I'm not surprised that you are interested in it, though I am not at all sure that it what would necessarily happen. I threw it in there for no small part in to contrast between the other predictions. One of the biggest trends in American politics over the past 5 years you see is the rise of economic liberalism and the decline of social liberalism. As with other trends I see this not only as a U.S. trend but a worldwide trend, starting with the Mexican peso crisis in 1994. That was the first major blow to the neoliberal economic establishment (the first major blow for that establishment also came in Latin America, with the success of Augusto Pinochet's economic policies, which were later followed by leaders of the UK, US. Russia, China, and 100 other countries. This may be one not-so-oft-told reason why the left hates him in particular so much).

This (economic liberalism, or as you say in Europe leftism) is going in the opposite direction of what the other predictions are hinting at. They suggest that the libertarian-leaning southwest could trend Democratic. The problem is if economic liberalism is finally reviving after 35 years of crisis (which would fit any theory of cyclical economic performance or of self-balancing economics), then the Democrats will soon move in the opposite direction, and all the predictions based on Clinton's "triangulation" formula will collapse. If John Kerry had had the will to smash the free-trade consensus in a Goldwateresque fashion by proposing protective tariffs, for example, he might have won Ohio. It's just a matter of time before the Democrats figure this out. I just thought it was funny all the other projections are based on the late 1990s paradigm of the future when reality has been going in the other direction the past 5 years or more. That's not to say they're necessarily wrong, but they're not necessarily right either.

The recent trends could be a backlash to the 1990's, or it could be something deeper, especially given the long term trends of economics and religion. The Nixon win of 1968 was seen as just a backlash to the '60s, but it turned out to not just be a backlash but a realignment. Under these circumstances the social scientists will begin to point out that since 1932, the more populist party has always been the majority party. Thus, both parties would adopt relatively socially conservative views, ala what Gore tried but failed to project in 2000, in order to be seen as as populist as possible. Under these circumstances, the battle is fought out over economic issues, with higher-income states falling on one side and lower-income states falling on another side. And I made my map based on a balanced election taking place under those circumstances.
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,905


« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2005, 07:33:45 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2005, 07:36:02 PM by thefactor »

Al- your welcome.

It's an interesting analysis, factor, yes.
I'll agree the other maps are much too cautious (and much too stuck on keeping the two parties roughly similar, btw.) Just look at King's every-24-years timeline.
Some minor points (to Al as well as you): I don't think the law & order rhetoric and especially the anti-immigration rhetoric we're getting over here is really socially conservative. Certainly it doesn't appeal only to social conservatives. Nor is it to any extent whatsoever founded on christian teachings.

I would consider that law & order and immigration are social issues, only in the sense that they are not economic or foreign policy issues. They certainly don't involve religion, but I tend to categorize any issue that isn't primarily either economic or foreign policy as a social issue. For the most part, I identify less libertarian (tough-on-crime and anti-immigrant) policies as relatively conservative on the social axis, though of course this suffers the pitfalls of all left-right axis thinking. And certain tendencies such as the Democrats' anti-smoking/gun control bent would seem to go against the grain. But I think they're generally speaking the exceptions.
 
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I won't pretend to be an expert on Pinochet, I know very little about him... and I hadn't seen your previous posts, I didn't intend to discount them. One of the things I had picked up though besides his brutal authoritarianism was that he was one of the first to implement the neoliberal economic policies. Here's what wikipedia says on his economic policy:

"Once in power, Pinochet immediately set about making market-oriented economic reforms. He declared that he wanted "to make Chile not a nation of proletarians, but a nation of entrepreneurs". To formulate his economic policy, Pinochet relied on the so-called Chicago Boys, who were economists trained at the University of Chicago and heavily influenced by the monetarist policies of Milton Friedman.

Pinochet launched an era of economic deregulation and privatization. To accomplish his objectives, he abolished the minimum wage, rescinded trade union rights, privatized the pension system, state industries, and banks, and lowered taxes on wealth and profits. Supporters of these policies (most notably Milton Friedman himself) have dubbed them "The Miracle of Chile", due to the 35% increase in real per capita GDP from 1960 to 1980 (later, from 1980 to 2000, it increased by 94%, but Pinochet was no longer in power after 1990). Opponents such as Noam Chomsky dispute this "miracle" label, [5] (http://www.chomsky.info/articles/199011--.htm) pointing out that the unemployment rate increased from 4.3% in 1973 to 22% in 1983, while real wages declined by 40%. However, Pinochet did manage to address at least part of these problems during his final years as President, since unemployment was down to 7.8% in 1990. The shortage problems during the final years of Allende's administration were also remedied.

The privatizations, cuts in public spending and anti-union policies generally had a negative impact on Chile's working class and a positive one on the country's more wealthy strata.

The former President Allende's economic policy had involved nationalizations of many key companies, notably U.S.-owned copper mines. This had been the primary reason for the external (mostly American) opposition to Allende's government. Much of the internal opposition to Allende's policies was from business sectors, and recently released US government documents confirm that the U.S. funded the lorry driver's strike, [6] (http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,260382,00.html) which was to a significant degree responsible for the chaotic situation just before the coup."
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,905


« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2005, 08:26:33 PM »


NC has moved righter over the years...

Well not really.  It has fluctuated a bit but is really very stable. 
Democrat vote percentages in NC over the last 25 years:
2004 - 43.58%
2000 - 43.20%
1996 - 44.04%
1992 - 42.65%
1988 - 41.71%
1984 - 37.89%
1980 - 47.18%
That's almost grotesquely stable! I note the Dem increase between 92 and 96 had no effect whatsoever in NC.
Probably a sign of the lack of a political realignment during the last 25 years. A realignment doesn't necessarily affect every state, but it affects enough of the states to change the overall dynamics. One reason I wouldn't want to speculate on 2030, is that a realignment is more likely than not before then, IMO.

There was a realignment, only it occured in 1968, so you won't see it show up on a timeline beginning in 1980.
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,905


« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2005, 03:04:39 AM »

I know what you're thinking... Ian, you crazy mofo!  WTF are you thinking?  Well, to tell you the truth, this map is pretty unlikely, but I'll stand by it.  The parties will centrist-ize, I do believe, and social issues will be put on the backburner.  An election based solely on economic issues, which is what I believe the future of American politics will be and following trends creates this map:


Um, why is Missouri and the states bordering it voting for lassiez-faire economic policies?

Why is Nevada and Arizona voting for pro-government economic policies?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 12 queries.