25 Years From Now. . . (user search)
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  25 Years From Now. . . (search mode)
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Author Topic: 25 Years From Now. . .  (Read 11402 times)
opebo
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« on: May 02, 2005, 09:14:33 AM »

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opebo
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Posts: 47,009


« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2005, 05:21:02 AM »


Not feeling you on Ohio.  I would put Wisconsin and possibly North Carolina as tossups.

Well I didn't allow myself any tossups - heck if I did that there'd be tons of 'em on there. Smiley
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opebo
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« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2005, 08:09:14 AM »


NC has moved righter over the years...

Well not really.  It has fluctuated a bit but is really very stable. 
Democrat vote percentages in NC over the last 25 years:
2004 - 43.58%
2000 - 43.20%
1996 - 44.04%
1992 - 42.65%
1988 - 41.71%
1984 - 37.89%
1980 - 47.18%
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opebo
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Posts: 47,009


« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2005, 12:50:21 PM »

Here's my trend map.  Most of the country is gray, as it will not chang all that much, certainly not enough to change the way the gray states now lean. 
Blue is moving Republican
Red is moving Democrat
Shades indicate rate of change from insignificant to rapid.
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opebo
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Posts: 47,009


« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2005, 05:30:30 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2005, 05:41:31 PM by opebo »

Georgia moving *towards* the Democrats? You're having a laugh aren't you?

Well, good point - it is funny you picked out the one thing I regretted after posting it.  Well that and maybe a couple of changes in shading.  With Georgia I was thinking in the long run it will be going the way of North Carolina/Virginia.  Quite a leap I'll admit.
Corrections:
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opebo
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Posts: 47,009


« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2005, 05:44:16 PM »

Texas is moving towards the Democrats?

I guess when you've reached bottom, there's no way but up.  Still, I haven't seen Texas Democrats show any inclinations of moving from that position.

Your map is optimistic for Democrats, to say the least.

Yes, I made a few corrections, but the title of this thread is '25 years from now'.  That's 2030.  I am pretty confident the Democrats will have a bigger percent of the vote in Texas by then - but as you said, they're at the bottom now.  Keep in mind also my shading - the light pink is only a very slight trend in that direction, certainly not enough to flip the state unless it is already very close.

I honestly think the far future - 20-30 years, does look pretty good for the Democrats. 
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opebo
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Posts: 47,009


« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2005, 06:42:49 AM »

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