25 Years From Now. . .

[Colin]

Here is my prediction

Very interesting. Seeing as (IMO anyway) your analysis is usually worth reading, I'd be interested to know why you think that.

From what I can extrapolate it seems that thefactor's map seems to show a shift with the Democrats becoming moderate populists and the Republicans becoming moderate libertarians. That would account for why the South and Great Plains has turned red while the west coast has turned blue. Seems also that the Republicans pick up more of the Black vote while the Hispanic vote remains about the same as it is now. Party loyalty or, possibly, a successful liberal third party in the Northeast allows states like New York and Vermont to stay in the red column while latte liberals go back into the Republican voting block.

[Colin]

From what I can extrapolate it seems that thefactor's map seems to show a shift with the Democrats becoming moderate populists and the Republicans becoming moderate libertarians. That would account for why the South and Great Plains has turned red while the west coast has turned blue. Seems also that the Republicans pick up more of the Black vote while the Hispanic vote remains about the same as it is now. Party loyalty or, possibly, a successful liberal third party in the Northeast allows states like New York and Vermont to stay in the red column while latte liberals go back into the Republican voting block.

So latte liberal = libertarian?

It's kind of werid how the pc can break down at times.  I'd say on average they would be more liberal socially and conservative ecnomically, but yet in a washed down, suburbanite kind of way.

Yes actually Preston is rather right. Many of these people, who are usually upperclass suburbanites used to be Republicans back when the party could be described as more moderate. Many of these people fled the party after the Reagan era do to the growing influence of the social conservative wing and the so-called religious right wing. They are economically centre-right and socially libertarian, or to put it in terms that you know jfern liberal. If the Republicans moved into a more moderate libertarian position many of these would come back into the fold of the Republican Party, especially if the Democrats move to a more Populist position.

[Colin]

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas

I would say that that map is pretty accurate.  Though, I would take Centre County out of the "stagnant" rural category, because State College is growing pretty rapidly and there is an expected merger with the surrounding townships soon.

And Pittsburgh is starting to turn around.  They just need to get back on their feet financially.  The city itself is doing pretty well, even if city government is in miserable shape.

Didn't Pittsburgh just announce a budget SURPLUS? Hooray for them!

We did? I must have missed it because of all the negative "City Under Siege" reporting that was going on.

[Colin]

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas

I would say that that map is pretty accurate.  Though, I would take Centre County out of the "stagnant" rural category, because State College is growing pretty rapidly and there is an expected merger with the surrounding townships soon.

And Pittsburgh is starting to turn around.  They just need to get back on their feet financially.  The city itself is doing pretty well, even if city government is in miserable shape.

Didn't Pittsburgh just announce a budget SURPLUS? Hooray for them!

We did? I must have missed it because of all the negative "City Under Siege" reporting that was going on.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/trib/pittsburgh/s_329091.html

That only says that Murphy has predicted a surplus not that their is one. There is a big difference between saying that you will have a surplus next year and actually having a surplus. This may be political rhetoric and optimism or it may actually be true, problem is we don't know yet.