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ChrisDR68
PoshPaws68
Jr. Member
Posts: 395
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« Reply #876 on: August 17, 2015, 08:50:40 AM » |
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Foot was DOA because he was not someone people could take seriously as a potential PM. Foot didn't take himself seriously as a potential PM which makes you wonder what he thought he was doing putting himself forward as a contender in the 1980 leadership contest in the first place. The SDP experiment failed due to the following reasons: 1. It's appeal was too middle class which didn't touch Labour's inner city and urban core vote. If it was going to replace Labour as the main centre left party (which is what their aim was) they had to eat into Labour's heartlands or they were wasting their time. Amazingly they don't seem to have realised this at the time or since. 2. It relied on a couple of senior politicians at the top of the party to put it's message across. There was no great or deep grass roots movement. 3. While the Labour Party was seen as a potentially dangerous organisation to vote into government (especially on defence issues) most swing voters would end up backing the Conservatives as the traditional (if relatively unpopular at the time) safety first option at general election time. In those circumstances a vote for the SDP/Liberal Alliance was seen as a bit indulgent and feckless. That is why I feel there won't be a split within the Labour Party this time around if Corbyn wins the leadership. The splitters will ultimately be wasting their time. Better to wait out the left's ascendancy and try and win back the leadership at a later date.
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ViaActiva
Jr. Member
Posts: 253
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« Reply #885 on: August 17, 2015, 05:56:04 PM » |
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« Edited: August 17, 2015, 05:59:41 PM by ViaActiva »
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Sorry but the idea that Labour lost the 1983 election due to the SDP and the Falklands War is absolute nonsense. Analysis (see Appendix) of second preferences showed that Liberal/SDP voters were more likely to favour Thatcher's Conservatives than Labour in 1983 (43% to 36%). Let that sink in more a moment. If the SDP had never happened, it's likely that Labour's defeat would have been even worse - as middle class voters who opted for the SDP in 1983 would have gone for Thatcher instead. The Conservatives were recovering in the polls before the Falklands War, as the temporary surge of the Alliance due to by-election victories inevitably slid away and the economy began to recover. There's a reason that Thatcher called the election in 1983 and not in 1984 - she knew she was going to win. I think that Labour could have done slightly better if the War had never happened - but in this case Thatcher would have delayed the election a year, and with the economy in good shape, it's likely the result would have been similar. Polls mid-Parliament are always a referendum on the current government and not an accurate reflection of voting choices. Thatcher's government was very unpopular, but when it came to voting, many felt there was no alternative. Polls always move back towards the government towards the election...otherwise Mr. Miliband would be Prime Minister now (even assuming that the final polls were off to the same degree!). Labour won just 27% in 1983. Labour were still blamed for the Winter of Discontent and trade union militancy. The Bennite insurgency of 1979-81 completely destroyed the constitutional balance in the Party and left the Party a shambles - who could possibly vote for a Labour leadership that couldn't control its own Party, let alone the country? Labour lost the election well before the Limehouse Declaration and the Falklands War.
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