25 Years From Now. . .

[Beet]

I know what you're thinking... Ian, you crazy mofo!  WTF are you thinking?  Well, to tell you the truth, this map is pretty unlikely, but I'll stand by it.  The parties will centrist-ize, I do believe, and social issues will be put on the backburner.  An election based solely on economic issues, which is what I believe the future of American politics will be and following trends creates this map:

Um, why is Missouri and the states bordering it voting for lassiez-faire economic policies?

Why is Nevada and Arizona voting for pro-government economic policies?

[opebo]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interestingly the same sort of thing seems to be happening over here; some of the rhetoric (and policies) coming from Labour have been much more leftish than the previous two elections (they're being more open about the re-distributive stuff as well) while the Tories have not tried the usual "we'll slash spending and cut yer taxes" trick they've been using since 1979 as much as normal (Flight got fired for suggesting that they'd do that if they won the election...) which would seem to indicate that it's not electorally popular anymore. The decline of social liberalism in the U.K is very obvious from UKIP's strong showing in last years Euro elections, and the increasly hardline stances politicians are taking on immigration/multiculturalism/crime/asylum seekers/etc.

My suspicions of what the result pattens were be were broadly correct.
I'll write some stuff up on this (and conclusions for U.S trends) later today.

[ian]

I know what you're thinking... Ian, you crazy mofo!  WTF are you thinking?  Well, to tell you the truth, this map is pretty unlikely, but I'll stand by it.  The parties will centrist-ize, I do believe, and social issues will be put on the backburner.  An election based solely on economic issues, which is what I believe the future of American politics will be and following trends creates this map:

Um, why is Missouri and the states bordering it voting for lassiez-faire economic policies?

Why is Nevada and Arizona voting for pro-government economic policies?

There will still be people voting for Republicans because of social issues, just like there are still people today who vote for Democrats because of the Civil War, though neither are issues at all or will have been for a long time.  And I think that the south will be so conservative that it will stay that way for a while after social issues are less existant.
As far as NV and AZ, I just stuck them with the Democrats because of their current trends to the left.

[12th Doctor]

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas

I would say that that map is pretty accurate.  Though, I would take Centre County out of the "stagnant" rural category, because State College is growing pretty rapidly and there is an expected merger with the surrounding townships soon.

And Pittsburgh is starting to turn around.  They just need to get back on their feet financially.  The city itself is doing pretty well, even if city government is in miserable shape.

[danwxman]

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas

Pretty good map I guess. Although Centre county is growing...and Fulton county is starting to get some Washington DC exurbs (Interstate 70 enters PA in Fulton county).

[Josh/Devilman88]

[danwxman]

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas

I would say that that map is pretty accurate.  Though, I would take Centre County out of the "stagnant" rural category, because State College is growing pretty rapidly and there is an expected merger with the surrounding townships soon.

And Pittsburgh is starting to turn around.  They just need to get back on their feet financially.  The city itself is doing pretty well, even if city government is in miserable shape.

Didn't Pittsburgh just announce a budget SURPLUS? Hooray for them!

[Colin]

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas

I would say that that map is pretty accurate.  Though, I would take Centre County out of the "stagnant" rural category, because State College is growing pretty rapidly and there is an expected merger with the surrounding townships soon.

And Pittsburgh is starting to turn around.  They just need to get back on their feet financially.  The city itself is doing pretty well, even if city government is in miserable shape.

Didn't Pittsburgh just announce a budget SURPLUS? Hooray for them!

We did? I must have missed it because of all the negative "City Under Siege" reporting that was going on.

[danwxman]

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas

I would say that that map is pretty accurate.  Though, I would take Centre County out of the "stagnant" rural category, because State College is growing pretty rapidly and there is an expected merger with the surrounding townships soon.

And Pittsburgh is starting to turn around.  They just need to get back on their feet financially.  The city itself is doing pretty well, even if city government is in miserable shape.

Didn't Pittsburgh just announce a budget SURPLUS? Hooray for them!

We did? I must have missed it because of all the negative "City Under Siege" reporting that was going on.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/trib/pittsburgh/s_329091.html

[Colin]

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas

I would say that that map is pretty accurate.  Though, I would take Centre County out of the "stagnant" rural category, because State College is growing pretty rapidly and there is an expected merger with the surrounding townships soon.

And Pittsburgh is starting to turn around.  They just need to get back on their feet financially.  The city itself is doing pretty well, even if city government is in miserable shape.

Didn't Pittsburgh just announce a budget SURPLUS? Hooray for them!

We did? I must have missed it because of all the negative "City Under Siege" reporting that was going on.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/trib/pittsburgh/s_329091.html

That only says that Murphy has predicted a surplus not that their is one. There is a big difference between saying that you will have a surplus next year and actually having a surplus. This may be political rhetoric and optimism or it may actually be true, problem is we don't know yet.

[Jake]

Yep, Centre is always the one I miss and that's fairly good news on Pittsburgh.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Democrat Strongholds & Leans--297EVs (44-50% PV)
Republican Strongholds & Leans--203EVs (42-48% PV)
Green (or some variant) Strongholds & Leans--38EVs (8-12%PV)
Preface:  No, I'm not on crack
(01)  If the Democratic party becomes more populist (moderate-liberal social, moderate defense), they'll retake the South (it will also be the stronghold).  This will be at the sacrafice of the Northeast and Upper-Midwest.  Democrats will become the down-to-earth, bread & butter party--always maintaining a balanced budget (and targeted tax cuts to middle class for a persistant budget surplus).  Republicans will remain conservative (except for their rubber-stamp, pork-barrel, spend-and-bankrupt fiscal agenda).  Thus the third party will strip many moderates from both sides.
(02)  Because Democrats will present themselves as the socially moderate party, a socially liberal--perhaps Libertarian or Green--party base will emerge in the North and a few Midwestern states.  The most socially liberal states will indeed award their EVs to said party.  For NY, MA, and VT, expect 50%I/25%R/25%D.  Expect MN, IL, and the remaining Northeastern states to vote Republican (38%R/31%D/31%I).  Arizona will also split almost evenly.
(03)  Demographic voting patterns will also change.  Blacks will be less monolithic (60D/35R/5I), Hispanics serve the populist base  as well (55D/40R/5I), and Whites--even Southerners--will vote more evenly (45D/45R/10I).
(04)  Idaho, Alabama, and Utah MAY (at least try to) secede.  A mass exodus of black people from Alabama to NC, FL, GA, and--to a lesser extent--SC will leave Alabama homogeneous.  More whites from surrounding southern states may take the place of blacks, thus stabilizing the population.
(05)  Most of NC's population will consist of a megalopolis from Charlotte (moderate-to-high growth) to the Triad (decrease or stabilizing population) to the Research Triangle (high growth).  BTW, UNC-Chapel Hill and Duke will rank among the top 5 universities.  SC will see growth exclusively in the Lowcountry (Charleston on down).  GA will taper off once the Atlanta suburbs/exurbs fill up, but there may be a small resurgence around Savannah.  VA will boast one huge megalopolis from Richmond to DC.  MD will continue moderate growth (transplants from NY, MA, PA, and OH).
(06)  Expect third parties to be excluded from state ballots.  Some states may adopt a "Choose two" (pick two and whomever receive the most votes wins) policy for ballots.
(07)  Expect primary caucuses to be phased out.  Bitter fights will ensue for which states will hold the first primaries.
(08)  Expect to see a populist, down-to-earth female and/or minority President!!!
(09)  EVs are apportioned according to the 2030 US Census projection figures featured in USA TODAY.

[Phony Moderate]

In fact it only took 11 years.