|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2020, 02:39:03 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  25 Years From Now. . .
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 Print
Author Topic: 25 Years From Now. . .  (Read 10220 times)
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,083
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: May 07, 2005, 02:40:43 pm »


NC has moved righter over the years...
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2005, 08:09:14 am »


NC has moved righter over the years...

Well not really.  It has fluctuated a bit but is really very stable. 
Democrat vote percentages in NC over the last 25 years:
2004 - 43.58%
2000 - 43.20%
1996 - 44.04%
1992 - 42.65%
1988 - 41.71%
1984 - 37.89%
1980 - 47.18%
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2005, 08:34:40 am »


NC has moved righter over the years...

Well not really.  It has fluctuated a bit but is really very stable. 
Democrat vote percentages in NC over the last 25 years:
2004 - 43.58%
2000 - 43.20%
1996 - 44.04%
1992 - 42.65%
1988 - 41.71%
1984 - 37.89%
1980 - 47.18%
That's almost grotesquely stable! I note the Dem increase between 92 and 96 had no effect whatsoever in NC.
Logged
muon2
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,495


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: May 08, 2005, 02:15:49 pm »


NC has moved righter over the years...

Well not really.  It has fluctuated a bit but is really very stable. 
Democrat vote percentages in NC over the last 25 years:
2004 - 43.58%
2000 - 43.20%
1996 - 44.04%
1992 - 42.65%
1988 - 41.71%
1984 - 37.89%
1980 - 47.18%
That's almost grotesquely stable! I note the Dem increase between 92 and 96 had no effect whatsoever in NC.
Probably a sign of the lack of a political realignment during the last 25 years. A realignment doesn't necessarily affect every state, but it affects enough of the states to change the overall dynamics. One reason I wouldn't want to speculate on 2030, is that a realignment is more likely than not before then, IMO.
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,393


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: May 08, 2005, 08:26:33 pm »


NC has moved righter over the years...

Well not really.  It has fluctuated a bit but is really very stable. 
Democrat vote percentages in NC over the last 25 years:
2004 - 43.58%
2000 - 43.20%
1996 - 44.04%
1992 - 42.65%
1988 - 41.71%
1984 - 37.89%
1980 - 47.18%
That's almost grotesquely stable! I note the Dem increase between 92 and 96 had no effect whatsoever in NC.
Probably a sign of the lack of a political realignment during the last 25 years. A realignment doesn't necessarily affect every state, but it affects enough of the states to change the overall dynamics. One reason I wouldn't want to speculate on 2030, is that a realignment is more likely than not before then, IMO.

There was a realignment, only it occured in 1968, so you won't see it show up on a timeline beginning in 1980.
Logged
muon2
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,495


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: May 08, 2005, 08:46:01 pm »


NC has moved righter over the years...

Well not really.  It has fluctuated a bit but is really very stable. 
Democrat vote percentages in NC over the last 25 years:
2004 - 43.58%
2000 - 43.20%
1996 - 44.04%
1992 - 42.65%
1988 - 41.71%
1984 - 37.89%
1980 - 47.18%
That's almost grotesquely stable! I note the Dem increase between 92 and 96 had no effect whatsoever in NC.
Probably a sign of the lack of a political realignment during the last 25 years. A realignment doesn't necessarily affect every state, but it affects enough of the states to change the overall dynamics. One reason I wouldn't want to speculate on 2030, is that a realignment is more likely than not before then, IMO.

There was a realignment, only it occured in 1968, so you won't see it show up on a timeline beginning in 1980.

I think that was my point. Smiley

There has been debate on other threads about whether the realignment occurred in 1968 or 1980. The key is whether 1972 or 1976 is the out of place election. Either way, none has occurred since, resulting in the relatively stable voting patterns at the presidential level noted by opebo.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: May 09, 2005, 01:00:07 am »

You'll note there was a big swing in NC between 1980 and 1984 - while national movement was minimal. As far as NC is concerned then, how about 1984 as the true realigning election?
Logged
12th Doctor
supersoulty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,601
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: May 09, 2005, 02:57:56 am »

I love how everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that the issues and thus, political alignments are going to change.  Also, if any one party is getting killed badly in the elections, they will eventually change their possitions until they are once again electable.  The only issue is "where in that cycle will we be at this time"?

That is why I see to major rise in third parties.  If either of the two major parties lose a significant amount of their base to one of the third parties, one of the two will find a way to take those votes away from the third party.

Anyway, these maps show a lack of imagination, above all, (except The Factor's map).  Not really even imagination as they do the lack of ability to anticipate how conditions will change.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: May 09, 2005, 03:02:41 am »

I love how everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that the issues and thus, political alignments are going to change.  Also, if any one party is getting killed badly in the elections, they will eventually change their possitions until they are once again electable.  The only issue is "where in that cycle will we be at this time"?

That is why I see to major rise in third parties.  If either of the two major parties lose a significant amount of their base to one of the third parties, one of the two will find a way to take those votes away from the third party.

Anyway, these maps show a lack of imagination, above all, (except The Factor's map).  Not really even imagination as they do the lack of ability to anticipate how conditions will change.
Well, obviously. None of us is a soothsayer, after all.
But yeah, those who posted maps seem to be th ones imagining very little change. Perhaps because, the more change you envisage, the less feasible making a map appears.
Logged
12th Doctor
supersoulty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,601
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: May 09, 2005, 03:05:11 am »

I love how everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that the issues and thus, political alignments are going to change.  Also, if any one party is getting killed badly in the elections, they will eventually change their possitions until they are once again electable.  The only issue is "where in that cycle will we be at this time"?

That is why I see to major rise in third parties.  If either of the two major parties lose a significant amount of their base to one of the third parties, one of the two will find a way to take those votes away from the third party.

Anyway, these maps show a lack of imagination, above all, (except The Factor's map).  Not really even imagination as they do the lack of ability to anticipate how conditions will change.
Well, obviously. None of us is a soothsayer, after all.
But yeah, those who posted maps seem to be th ones imagining very little change. Perhaps because, the more change you envisage, the less feasible making a map appears.

I want to thank you for the info you provided, BTW.  You are quoted in my paper.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: May 09, 2005, 03:25:49 am »

Yeah, I've read that already. Smiley
Logged
12th Doctor
supersoulty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,601
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: May 09, 2005, 11:07:42 am »
« Edited: May 09, 2005, 11:10:19 am by Senator Supersoulty »

This is a general trend map.  On the whole, I think that the states in blue are treanding more conservative (when you balance economic and social issues) and the red states more liberal.  The grey states will remain about as is.

The three major trends that I see causing the conditions my map perscribes are:

1) The conservative party (presumably the Republicans, but not nessesarily) will break into the inner-cities and start picking up a better percentage of the vote, as more older cities begin to renew themselves.

2) The liberal party will gradually start to do better in areas that have large suburban populations and as the inner-ring suburbs of the old cities become the new depository for all of the problems that haunt the inner-cities now.

3) General population patterns.

Logged
WMS
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,903


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: May 09, 2005, 12:49:34 pm »
« Edited: May 10, 2005, 11:02:00 am by WMS »

This is a general trend map.  On the whole, I think that the states in blue are treanding more conservative (when you balance economic and social issues) and the red states more liberal.  The grey states will remain about as is.

The three major trends that I see causing the conditions my map perscribes are:

1) The conservative party (presumably the Republicans, but not nessesarily) will break into the inner-cities and start picking up a better percentage of the vote, as more older cities begin to renew themselves.

2) The liberal party will gradually start to do better in areas that have large suburban populations and as the inner-ring suburbs of the old cities become the new depository for all of the problems that haunt the inner-cities now.

3) General population patterns.



*edit*
General trend map - d'oh!

And NM may end up trending conservative, depending on which issues are important (social and foreign policy favors a shift right, economic ones a shift left).
Logged
ian
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,463


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: -1.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: May 09, 2005, 04:51:21 pm »
« Edited: May 09, 2005, 04:54:45 pm by ian »

I know what you're thinking... Ian, you crazy mofo!  WTF are you thinking?  Well, to tell you the truth, this map is pretty unlikely, but I'll stand by it.  The parties will centrist-ize, I do believe, and social issues will be put on the backburner.  An election based solely on economic issues, which is what I believe the future of American politics will be and following trends creates this map:
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: May 10, 2005, 10:52:25 am »

This is a general trend map.  On the whole, I think that the states in blue are treanding more conservative (when you balance economic and social issues) and the red states more liberal.  The grey states will remain about as is.

The three major trends that I see causing the conditions my map perscribes are:

1) The conservative party (presumably the Republicans, but not nessesarily) will break into the inner-cities and start picking up a better percentage of the vote, as more older cities begin to renew themselves.

2) The liberal party will gradually start to do better in areas that have large suburban populations and as the inner-ring suburbs of the old cities become the new depository for all of the problems that haunt the inner-cities now.

3) General population patterns.


This is a trend map, right? So red means "more liberal than now", but not necessarily on the Liberal side?
It's an interesting map, and they're interesting assumptions up there that may be true (although the COnservative party would have trouble getting the, presumably largely "Latte Liberal" vote of those new City conservatives), but there are some states that I'd definitely disagree on even on these assumptions. New Hampshire and Vermont I'd put in Red. Rhode Island in Blue. New Jersey in Grey. And so on. Georgia in Blue.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: May 10, 2005, 12:50:21 pm »

Here's my trend map.  Most of the country is gray, as it will not chang all that much, certainly not enough to change the way the gray states now lean. 
Blue is moving Republican
Red is moving Democrat
Shades indicate rate of change from insignificant to rapid.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 62,998
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: May 10, 2005, 03:48:15 pm »

Georgia moving *towards* the Democrats? You're having a laugh aren't you?
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: May 10, 2005, 05:30:30 pm »
« Edited: May 10, 2005, 05:41:31 pm by opebo »

Georgia moving *towards* the Democrats? You're having a laugh aren't you?

Well, good point - it is funny you picked out the one thing I regretted after posting it.  Well that and maybe a couple of changes in shading.  With Georgia I was thinking in the long run it will be going the way of North Carolina/Virginia.  Quite a leap I'll admit.
Corrections:
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 62,998
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: May 10, 2005, 05:31:30 pm »

I think you're whole theory is probably deeply flawed, but seeing as it's one a lot of other people have come out with there's no point attacking you'res especially
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,654


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: May 10, 2005, 05:40:15 pm »

Texas is moving towards the Democrats?

I guess when you've reached bottom, there's no way but up.  Still, I haven't seen Texas Democrats show any inclinations of moving from that position.

Your map is optimistic for Democrats, to say the least.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: May 10, 2005, 05:44:16 pm »

Texas is moving towards the Democrats?

I guess when you've reached bottom, there's no way but up.  Still, I haven't seen Texas Democrats show any inclinations of moving from that position.

Your map is optimistic for Democrats, to say the least.

Yes, I made a few corrections, but the title of this thread is '25 years from now'.  That's 2030.  I am pretty confident the Democrats will have a bigger percent of the vote in Texas by then - but as you said, they're at the bottom now.  Keep in mind also my shading - the light pink is only a very slight trend in that direction, certainly not enough to flip the state unless it is already very close.

I honestly think the far future - 20-30 years, does look pretty good for the Democrats. 
Logged
danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: May 10, 2005, 10:01:26 pm »

I know what you're thinking... Ian, you crazy mofo!  WTF are you thinking?  Well, to tell you the truth, this map is pretty unlikely, but I'll stand by it.  The parties will centrist-ize, I do believe, and social issues will be put on the backburner.  An election based solely on economic issues, which is what I believe the future of American politics will be and following trends creates this map:


In an election on economic issues, Pennsylvania would vote Republican? Ummm...no.

I don't see any reason Pennsylvania turns Republican, even with a realignment. There are just two many different forces. It may go from a Democratic leaning swing state to a Republican leaning swing state in a realignment, thats all.
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,649
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: May 10, 2005, 10:31:52 pm »

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas

Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,489


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: May 11, 2005, 01:54:47 am »

I know what you're thinking... Ian, you crazy mofo!  WTF are you thinking?  Well, to tell you the truth, this map is pretty unlikely, but I'll stand by it.  The parties will centrist-ize, I do believe, and social issues will be put on the backburner.  An election based solely on economic issues, which is what I believe the future of American politics will be and following trends creates this map:


In an election on economic issues, Pennsylvania would vote Republican? Ummm...no.

I don't see any reason Pennsylvania turns Republican, even with a realignment. There are just two many different forces. It may go from a Democratic leaning swing state to a Republican leaning swing state in a realignment, thats all.

Depends on how right wing the GOP gets.  Most of the Philly suburbs are left-center to center economically.  I'd say PA is a total push in years to come.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: May 11, 2005, 02:47:22 am »

If states voted on economic issues 25 years from now, PA would be solidly for the right wing economic party. The Philly Burbs already make up 25% of the state. By that time, they could make up nearly 50% of the state.  Here's a map of the growing suburbs.

Green is dying cities
Yellow is growing suburbs
Orange is stagnant rural areas


It's an interesting map...although I think some of those stagnant rural areas are more like dying and some of those dying cities are more like stagnant. Smiley
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines