Which (EV) bellwether will survive the longest from now?

[Figueira]

Obviously Ohio has lasted the longest until now, but I'm interested in which state will continue to do so for the longest into the future. I'm thinking either Pennsylvania or Florida; I think I'll vote Florida.

Obviously the only states I'm including are Obama 2012/Trump 2016 states. I didn't include ME-2 because district lines can change.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pennsylvania will vote Democratic again for sure in 2020 and become the longest bellweather.  Forget about Ohio. Dems need to focus on VA and PA

[Xing]

Since it does seem like Ohio will go Republican in a narrow Democratic victory, Florida will become the "ultimate bellwether" once that happens. I do think that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will (at least in the short term) flip back to the Democrats if they win in a close race, but since they went for Kerry in 2004, Florida will be the longest standing bellwether. Also, poor Nevada. It was going to be the next bellwether, but it proved that it's just too blue for that, not that I have a problem with that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida will be electing Puttman Governor in 2018, a GOPer.  WI, PA, IL, NV, NJ and VA will be electing Democratic Governors in 2018, possibly Lisa Madigan in Illinois.  So PA with Wolfe will be the bellweather.

Florida is a GOP state now.

[eric82oslo]

I'd say either Pennsylvania or Michigan. Although I've learned never to underestimate Florida lol.

[Person Man]

I'd say either Pennsylvania or Michigan. Although I've learned never to underestimate Florida lol.

They definitely need to do better in all of these places.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forget Florida, again it is a naturally red state Pennsylvania will be the bellweather and always will be.

[Pericles]

Ohio and Iowa went for Trump by nearly double digits, they can't be considered swing states anymore and are not bellwethers. Hillary would have won Texas before she won Iowa. Pennsylvania was trending R demographically even before Trump and I think it is increasingly shifting in that direction. Michigan and Wisconsin are possible but both are very white and Rust Belt states not demographically representative of the nation. I'd say Florida, it has always been a swing state and has a good demographic balance so I think it will stay a bellwether for the longest. However it's possible in the future a state like Texas or Georgia could become a new bellwether.