So you seem like a version of Trump, only less bombastic and more soft-spoken, pragmatic, reasonable and moderate. This might help or hurt you in Clinton County. The county is quite Democratic and has not voted red in some time, but is rural. It gave Obama over 60% but Clinton only a plurality and then Biden a narrow majority. Specifically it went blue by 5.2%, which means it can be flipped by a conservative/Republican. However it seemed to actually like Trump's rhetoric and I feel like you are less extreme and "populist" than him in rhetoric, you may do worse, but not significantly so. Trump got 45% and 46.5% in his two runs, and you'd underperform him somewhat...I'd give you 44-46% or so, anywhere within that range is fairly plausible.
