The Democrats manage to scrape through the 2018 midterms fairly unscathed however in 2019 a deep recession sets in due to instability in the EU. President Hillary has ratcheted up bombing raids in Iraq and sent ground troops into Syria. With her presidency increasingly unpopular and a growing war weariness and unemployment at over 7% Rand Paul, the runner up in 2016 makes it through a crowded GOP primary field and runs an isolationist campaign which proves to be quite popular. He even gets to Hillary's left on civil liberties and manages to win by a fairly comfortable margin.
Paul/Snyder 303
Clinton/Castro 235
2018 wont be unscathed for the DEMs