The Real "Firewall": The 206 Firewall
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:07:45 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  The Real "Firewall": The 206 Firewall
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: The Real "Firewall": The 206 Firewall  (Read 1726 times)
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,669


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 04, 2015, 10:17:56 PM »

Assuming that there is no popular vote landslide, neither party can win below 206 electoral votes.  The Cook PVI gives the Republicans and the Democrats both 206 votes that are reasonably comfortably on their side (R/D+3 or more- meaning 6 point victories or more).  Ten states and one divided district (Maine's second) are between D+2 and R+2 and decide which party can get to 270 (or 332).  Given that both sides have exactly 206 "in the bag", these states will perfectly decide an election:



Logged
DS0816
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2015, 10:51:50 PM »
« Edited: July 05, 2015, 09:17:48 AM by DS0816 »

Assuming that there is no popular vote landslide, neither party can win below 206 electoral votes.  The Cook PVI gives the Republicans and the Democrats both 206 votes that are reasonably comfortably on their side (R/D+3 or more- meaning 6 point victories or more).  Ten states and one divided district (Maine's second) are between D+2 and R+2 and decide which party can get to 270 (or 332).  Given that both sides have exactly 206 "in the bag", these states will perfectly decide an election:




Incorrect.
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,669


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2015, 11:14:24 PM »

Assuming that there is no popular vote landslide, neither party can win below 206 electoral votes.  The Cook PVI gives the Republicans and the Democrats both 206 votes that are reasonably comfortably on their side (R/D+3 or more- meaning 6 point victories or more).  Ten states and one divided district (Maine's second) are between D+2 and R+2 and decide which party can get to 270 (or 332).  Given that both sides have exactly 206 "in the bag", these states will perfectly decide an election:



Incorrect.

I get that the left thinks they have some EC lock, but please explain your rationale for disagreeing with the Cook PVI.
Logged
Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2015, 12:06:47 AM »

This is a better floor map then most, but if Minnesota is a swing state, surely North Carolina is too.
Logged
Higgs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,581


Political Matrix
E: 6.14, S: -4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2015, 01:30:49 PM »

This is a better floor map then most, but if Minnesota is a swing state, surely North Carolina is too.

This, Democrats are very capable of winning NC, I would say even more capable than Republicans winning MN
Logged
Slander and/or Libel
Figs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,338


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2015, 10:06:12 AM »

Dems aren't just capable of winning NC; they DID win it in 2008. I don't know why we don't remember this.
Logged
Rockefeller GOP
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2015, 10:17:20 AM »

Dems aren't just capable of winning NC; they DID win it in 2008. I don't know why we don't remember this.

They also won Indiana, do you think that's likely to be repeated?
Logged
Slander and/or Libel
Figs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,338


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2015, 10:18:55 AM »

Dems aren't just capable of winning NC; they DID win it in 2008. I don't know why we don't remember this.

They also won Indiana, do you think that's likely to be repeated?

Not particularly, no. But there are changes happening in NC's population that would lead us to believe that it's getting closer to within reach for Democrats than Indiana, that's all. In 2008 they were both reach states, basically, but IN has stayed about where it is while NC has gotten a bit more obtainable.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2015, 11:22:09 PM »

Make MI Democratic and take out Michigan and North Carolina and I'll agree. The latter two are like the other's antithesis. They won't be won by the other party barring a wave of waves.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2015, 05:59:14 AM »

1. North Carolina is already mentioned.

2. Indiana is not 'in the bag'. It is surrounded on three sides by states seeming to drift D. Turn Fort Wayne D, and Indiana is a swing state. Indiana is simply more rural than Indiana, Michigan, or Ohio.

3. Minnesota is simply inelastic. It's going to go 50-50 in a catastrophic year for Democrats, 52-48 in a 50-50 election, 55-45 in a good year for Democrats, and perhaps 57-43 in a Democratic landslide. I can imagine scenarios in which the Democratic nominee wins 60% of the popular vote and gets 58% of the popular vote in Minnesota.

4. NE-02 is a swing district.   

5. I see Arizona getting increasingly dicey for the GOP. Arizona demographics are becoming more similar to those of California, Colorado, and New Mexico.  Could it be that more of the Hispanics of Arizona are non-citizens unable to vote? When that changes, Arizona is trouble for any GOP nominee. 

6. Republicans have been eking out some shaky wins in Georgia.

Logged
Rockefeller GOP
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2015, 10:51:14 AM »

I'm sick of this meme that ONLY "ruralness" makes a state Republican, as it plays to many Democrats' misplaced superiority complex they seem to have about who their voters actually are.  The suburban vote in the state of Indiana is pretty damn Republican, it's not like the state's politics can be summed up as a bunch of rural folks barely outnumbering the poor cosmopolitan liberals who just happen to be stuck in Indiana.
Logged
Clark Kent
ClarkKent
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,480
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2015, 12:04:27 PM »

This is a better floor map then most, but if Minnesota is a swing state, surely North Carolina is too.
I've done the math. In 2012, North Carolina was much more Republican compared to the nation as a whole than Minnesota was Democratic.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2015, 01:08:39 PM »

Indiana is simply more rural than Indiana, Michigan, or Ohio.

True, true.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2015, 01:11:11 PM »

Dems aren't just capable of winning NC; they DID win it in 2008. I don't know why we don't remember this.

They also won Indiana, do you think that's likely to be repeated?

Not the same LOL
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2015, 01:12:39 PM »

This is a better floor map then most, but if Minnesota is a swing state, surely North Carolina is too.
I've done the math. In 2012, North Carolina was much more Republican compared to the nation as a whole than Minnesota was Democratic.

2012 was a GOP wave year

Obama only won reelection by four states and the Dems only made 2 Senate pickups

In a regular year (2006, 2008, etc.) you would see that NC is much swingier than MN
Logged
Rockefeller GOP
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 07, 2015, 01:53:17 PM »

This is a better floor map then most, but if Minnesota is a swing state, surely North Carolina is too.
I've done the math. In 2012, North Carolina was much more Republican compared to the nation as a whole than Minnesota was Democratic.

2012 was a GOP wave year

Obama only won reelection by four states and the Dems only made 2 Senate pickups

In a regular year (2006, 2008, etc.) you would see that NC is much swingier than MN

Andddd your credibility is shot by calling 2012 a Republican wave year and 2006/2008 "normal," LOL.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 07, 2015, 02:04:56 PM »

There's no such thing as a "firewall". The Democrats can win Arizona if they really tried, Republicans could win New Jersey if they really tried. Just because states usually go one way doesn't mean they always will.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 07, 2015, 03:26:10 PM »

Dems have the 242 Blue wall, all they need is 28 electors to win. OH or NV&CO plus NH.
Logged
Clark Kent
ClarkKent
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,480
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 07, 2015, 03:32:51 PM »

Yeah, I know the colors are reversed from the way this site usually does things, but I like this better:



The results are all from 2012 as they were compared to the nation as a whole:

Darkest blue is Democratic with a margin greater than 15% (DC, HI, VT, NY, RI, MD)

Dark blue is Democratic with a margin between 15% and 20% (MA, CA)

Medium blue is Democratic with a margin between 10% and 15% (DE, NJ, CT, IL, ME, WA)

Light blue is Democratic with a margin between 5% and 10% (OR, NM, MI)

White is swing, going from 5% Democratic to 5% Republican (MN, WI, NV, IA, NH, PA, CO, VA, OH, FL)

Pink is Republican with a margin between 5% and 10% (NC)

Medium red is Republican with a margin between 10% and 15% (GA, AZ, MO, IN, SC)

Dark red is Republican with a margin between 15% and 20% (MS, MO, AK, TX)

Darkest red is Republican with a margin greater than 20% (LA, SD, ND, TN, KS, NE, AL, KY, AK, WV, ID, OK, WY, UT)
Logged
Rockefeller GOP
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 07, 2015, 03:33:41 PM »

Dems have the 242 Blue wall, all they need is 28 electors to win. OH or NV&CO plus NH.

Is this a key on your keyboard like how at fast food restaurants they have buttons for each order?

"8. Blue wall/electors comment"
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.23 seconds with 12 queries.