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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2020: Clinton/Castro (D) vs Paul/Snyder (R)
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Author Topic: 2020: Clinton/Castro (D) vs Paul/Snyder (R)  (Read 3947 times)
Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« on: May 01, 2015, 10:51:18 pm »

The Democrats manage to scrape through the 2018 midterms fairly unscathed however in 2019 a deep recession sets in due to instability in the EU. President Hillary has ratcheted up bombing raids in Iraq and sent ground troops into Syria. With her presidency increasingly unpopular and a growing war weariness and unemployment at over 7% Rand Paul, the runner up in 2016 makes it through a crowded GOP primary field and runs an isolationist campaign which proves to be quite popular. He even gets to Hillary's left on civil liberties and manages to win by a fairly comfortable margin.


Paul/Snyder     303
Clinton/Castro  235
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2015, 10:59:46 pm »

The Democrats manage to scrape through the 2018 midterms fairly unscathed however in 2019 a deep recession sets in due to instability in the EU. President Hillary has ratcheted up bombing raids in Iraq and sent ground troops into Syria. With her presidency increasingly unpopular and a growing war weariness and unemployment at over 7% Rand Paul, the runner up in 2016 makes it through a crowded GOP primary field and runs an isolationist campaign which proves to be quite popular. He even gets to Hillary's left on civil liberties and manages to win by a fairly comfortable margin.


Paul/Snyder     303
Clinton/Castro  235


How the heck would Paul get 60% in Pennsylvania while losing Virginia?  There aren't that many defense contractors!
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Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2015, 11:14:58 pm »

The Democrats manage to scrape through the 2018 midterms fairly unscathed however in 2019 a deep recession sets in due to instability in the EU. President Hillary has ratcheted up bombing raids in Iraq and sent ground troops into Syria. With her presidency increasingly unpopular and a growing war weariness and unemployment at over 7% Rand Paul, the runner up in 2016 makes it through a crowded GOP primary field and runs an isolationist campaign which proves to be quite popular. He even gets to Hillary's left on civil liberties and manages to win by a fairly comfortable margin.


Paul/Snyder     303
Clinton/Castro  235


How the heck would Paul get 60% in Pennsylvania while losing Virginia?  There aren't that many defense contractors!

That was an error, I meant to have it at 50%, though I suppose it's theoretically possible if he campaigned heavily in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to cut into Hillary's lead while winning in a blowout everywhere else.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2015, 11:10:03 am »

If Paul wins Michigan and Oregon, he also wins Florida and Virginia.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2015, 12:16:48 pm »

In this situation you just described, its almost at the level of Jimmy Carter running for re-election.



374-164
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Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2015, 01:00:46 pm »

If Paul wins Michigan and Oregon, he also wins Florida and Virginia.

Not necessarily, it has to do with where he appeals individually.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2015, 06:42:54 pm »

The Democrats manage to scrape through the 2018 midterms fairly unscathed however in 2019 a deep recession sets in due to instability in the EU. President Hillary has ratcheted up bombing raids in Iraq and sent ground troops into Syria. With her presidency increasingly unpopular and a growing war weariness and unemployment at over 7% Rand Paul, the runner up in 2016 makes it through a crowded GOP primary field and runs an isolationist campaign which proves to be quite popular. He even gets to Hillary's left on civil liberties and manages to win by a fairly comfortable margin.


Paul/Snyder     303
Clinton/Castro  235


2018 wont be unscathed for the DEMs
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2015, 12:35:50 am »



374-164
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2015, 10:54:56 am »

I doubt Snyder would deliver MI
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mathstatman
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2015, 07:54:15 pm »

I agree. Snyder barely won re-election in 2014, 51-47.
Clinton / Castro 237
Paul / Snyder 301
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RFayette
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2015, 10:27:26 pm »

A mediocre 2018 probably would help the GOP in 2020 as it gives them more ammunition against the "Democratic machine."
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2015, 01:16:27 pm »



Home state advantage 101
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wifikitten
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« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2015, 04:24:30 pm »

What kinda Hillary hack are you, there is NO way she will win Colorado, ever, they hate condoms.
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Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2015, 04:34:41 pm »



I forgot to set the margin of victory in Colprado at +90% for Rand Paul.
Home state advantage 101
What kinda Hillary hack are you, there is NO way she will win Colorado, ever, they hate condoms.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2015, 07:22:14 pm »

A mediocre 2018 probably would help the GOP in 2020 as it gives them more ammunition against the "Democratic machine."

That's true.  An incumbent party holding strong in a midterm is more often a curse than a blessing.  1934-36 is the obvious exception, but that was basically the most favorable environment for an incumbent party since the Civil War.
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