Why Is Hillary Running Left?
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Why Is Hillary Running Left?
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Author Topic: Why Is Hillary Running Left?  (Read 2921 times)
Reginald
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« Reply #25 on: May 01, 2015, 03:05:26 PM »

Reginald, you seem to be looking for far more detail than one should expect from a pundit of any political stripe. Recombining everything at the level of the CD will probably turn up in a graduate student's thesis before too long. Look at the work and time Griffin is putting into his county-level analysis of white Dem support in 2012. A professional political analyst writing for a website isn't paid to take that amount of time, so until there is a research paper one is limited to nationwide analyses. That said, I have to add that Trende does a much better job of using real data to model across elections than most pundits.

I totally agree. There are a lot of moving parts here, and an op-ed or whatever isn't likely (or even liable) to capture everything that's relevant. But that's pretty much my point. It's quite the weighty conclusion given such insufficient analysis, and it should thus be taken with some skepticism.

More broadly though, the point about the future of the Obama minority coalition is apt. However, to that point, I'd submit that there might simultaneously be something of an anti-Obama coalition whose future needs to be kept in mind as well.
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FEMA Camp Administrator
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« Reply #26 on: May 01, 2015, 06:23:59 PM »

Really depends what you're talking about. Within the Democratic Party, she's a centrist. Worldwide, she's a centrist. But in contemporary nationwide American politics, she's clearly a liberal.

Has the Democratic Party really steered that hard to the left? She was a liberal kook during the Hillarycare days.

Moreover, who's to say that "liberal" doesn't mean "centrist"? After all, TNF has yet to chime in on this article.
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compson III
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« Reply #27 on: May 01, 2015, 07:11:01 PM »

I would imagine that analysis of these kind of broad aggregates is fairly amateurish compared to what is going on behind the scenes right now.  The DNC has at its disposal a dataset that is bigger, deeper, and more detailed than the exit polls or any other public information; I saw it first hand in the 2012 campaign.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #28 on: May 01, 2015, 07:41:42 PM »

A big reason why this analysis sucks is the multivariate nature of an election.

If you hold everything else equal between two elections and focus on one thing, maybe you have a point about that one thing.  You need to make those assumptions to get a clear picture.  But, elections are dynamic and complex beasts. 

You could say Hillary Clinton will lose the male vote because she's female, so holding everything else equal, she will lose votes vs. Obama.  But, she's a woman, so she can gain those votes back with women.  You could say Hillary Clinton will lose the black vote because she's white, so holding everything else equal, she will lose votes vs. Obama.  But, she's white, so she can gain those votes back with white voters. 

These trend analysis articles are never very accurate at predicting the future.  People thought Obama would lose because of PUMA voters in 2008, because of the 2010 election in 2012, because of the weak economy, because of racism, because of lack of enthusiasm in 2012, etc.  It never happened. 

The only proven predictor of elections is public polling.  In current polling, Hillary Clinton is ahead.  So, the clear strategy is to focus on appealing to the base.  At the point, Hillary Clinton just needs to solidify her base, get Obama voters to show up and show her authenticity.  It would be easy necessarily, but that's a clear strategy.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #29 on: May 01, 2015, 10:19:22 PM »

Trende is a hack who parroted dutifully for years all the Republican talking points about how Obamacare would destroy America.
Torie's feigned ignorance about his partisan leanings is most amusing.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #30 on: May 02, 2015, 02:46:37 PM »

Hillary is running left, because she's terrified of an impending announcement by a progressive juggernaut, Martin O'Malley.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #31 on: May 11, 2015, 01:38:13 PM »

Because the progressives, for whatever reason, hate her.  I don't get it, because she toes their line on nearly every issue.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #32 on: May 11, 2015, 03:31:39 PM »

Torie WOULD read Sean Trende pieces.
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