Rubio demographic study, polling data, etc for early primary states

[Torie]

I am not sure on which Board to link this long 271 page tome, but given how un-user-friendly it is, I decided to put it in Muon2's hood, where the really hard core masochists hang out.

An interesting bit at the end, that Jimtex and politicians will love, is about political advertising and media penetrations, and census tracts and so forth.

The two things that stuck out for me in a quick speed read are 1) how much more Democratic younger voters are in South Carolina than older ones, and 2) how depressing low still pro-SSM numbers are among Republican voters. Only among young Pubs in New Hampshire are the numbers close, and perhaps it's just polling error, but the youngest cohort of Pubs in Nevada is less supportive of SSM than more middle aged Pubs.  

[muon2]

My board is up to the challenge. I'll add it to my reading list.

Without reading it, my reaction to the NV SSM-by-age data is probably more about party identification. Middle-aged Pubs are more likely to hold on to their party ID and let their social views evolve with the county. Younger voters are in the process of creating their sense of party ID, and will gravitate to the one that matches their views. So younger voters are more likely to select the GOP if they have views in line with the positions perceived as the core including opposition to SSM.

[Torie]

My board is up to the challenge. I'll add it to my reading list.

Without reading it, my reaction to the NV SSM-by-age data is probably more about party identification. Middle-aged Pubs are more likely to hold on to their party ID and let their social views evolve with the county. Younger voters are in the process of creating their sense of party ID, and will gravitate to the one that matches their views. So younger voters are more likely to select the GOP if they have views in line with the positions perceived as the core including opposition to SSM.

The anomaly just appears in NV however. NH goes the other way rather dramatically for example. Young Pubs are much more supportive of SSM than older Pubs.

[muon2]

My board is up to the challenge. I'll add it to my reading list.

Without reading it, my reaction to the NV SSM-by-age data is probably more about party identification. Middle-aged Pubs are more likely to hold on to their party ID and let their social views evolve with the county. Younger voters are in the process of creating their sense of party ID, and will gravitate to the one that matches their views. So younger voters are more likely to select the GOP if they have views in line with the positions perceived as the core including opposition to SSM.

The anomaly just appears in NV however. NH goes the other way rather dramatically for example. Young Pubs are much more supportive of SSM than older Pubs.

So I would assume they are identifying as Pubs for reasons unrelated to social issues. It seems to be the case the New England Pubs have been working for some time to downplay social issues in their party.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

. Only among young Pubs in New Hampshire are the numbers close, and perhaps it's just polling error, but the youngest cohort of Pubs in Nevada is less supportive of SSM than more middle aged Pubs. 

Funny how two states with strong libertarian streaks would have such widely differing views on gay marriage, especially among young voters.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Interesting stuff!

A couple of initial  observations:

- There's barely any gender gap in turnout rate in Iowa's primary elections in 2012 among the 35-54 age cohort.

- Related to Torie's point about South Carolina youngs being more Democratic: there's a 23-point gender gap among voters in the 18-34 cohort,  with women in that cohort being 69% Democratic and men in that cohort being 46% Democratic.

- However, notice that men in that same cohort are 34% Republican while women are 24% Republican-a 10-point gap.   Thus, 20% of young men in SC are "non-partisan", compared to just 7% of young women.