De Blasio vs. Bush

[Suburbia]

http://nypost.com/2015/04/20/de-blasio-sets-sights-on-presidential-draft-candidacy-vs-hillary/
Some say that Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City declined to endorse Hillary early because..he may run himself, according to the NY Post, if this is true. How would a Bush v. De Blasio matchup look like?

[King]

Neither DeBlaiso running nor Bush winning the GOP nomination is going to happen.

[Cory]

Something like this:

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Something like this:

I would give New Mexico to de Blasio unless Bush picks Martinez (I don't think she would accept though, but the whole scenario is hypothetical).

[Vega]

Yikes. I couldn't image in it going well. The previous map seems likely.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

I think this is pretty generous.

321-217

[ElectionsGuy]

That's one way to get a Republican landslide.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Bush would win,  and I'd probably end up voting for him in this scenario

[IceSpear]

Bronz, the NY Post is not to be taken seriously.

Anyway, Jeb wins in a landslide.

[© tweed]

it'd be closer to a Bush-2004 type victory than a Bush-1988 type victory.  the Dem floor is pretty high these days.  though Jeb could win a number of 'swing states' by razor-thing margins and approach 325 EVs.

[WVdemocrat]

it'd be closer to a Bush-2004 type victory than a Bush-1988 type victory.  the Dem floor is pretty high these days.  though Jeb could win a number of 'swing states' by razor-thing margins and approach 325 EVs.

^This

You guys are being completely unrealistic about this. With polarization as high as it is today, it's hard to see a Democrat getting below ~230 EVs.

I see a 2004-esque victory for Bush. Bush wins narrowly in Nevada. De Blasio wins narrowly in Iowa and Wisconsin, and somewhat narrowly in New Mexico.

[Sumner 1868]

Sadly, the one who is not smeared daily for refusing to impose Mississippi law would win.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat. He's closer to a more belligerent, less experienced Sanders.

[RFayette]

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat. He's closer to a more belligerent, less experienced Sanders.

This.  De Blasio would do very poorly among police, which is definitely a potent disadvantage.  He'd also alienate mainstream moderate Dems....I could see folks like Manchin refusing to endorse DeBlasio.

[© tweed]

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat.

he managed the sitting Democratic president's wife's Senate campaign in 2000.  it doesn't get much more "mainstream" than that.

[Lincoln Republican]

Jeb easily wins.

De Blasio is simply too much of a leftist extremist to have much of a national appeal.

The only reason he won the Mayoralty of New York City is because Congressman Anthony Weiner defeated himself with his own behavior.

And I believe the map showing Bush with 321 EV is more or less accurate.

[© tweed]

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat. He's closer to a more belligerent, less experienced Sanders.

This.  De Blasio would do very poorly among police, which is definitely a potent disadvantage.

there are about 765k deputized state and local officers in the USA.  the popular vote totaled 130m last time around.

...and I imagine this sub-group votes 3:2 or 2:1 Republican to begin with.  it's disproportionately male and white, to say nothing else.

[© tweed]

The only reason he won the Mayoralty of New York City is because Congressman Anthony Weiner defeated himself with his own behavior.

Weiner wasn't his main competition.  the frontrunner was the sitting Speaker of the City Council, Christine Quinn.

--

we really do have a bunch of idiots chirping around, don't we?

[RFayette]

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat. He's closer to a more belligerent, less experienced Sanders.

This.  De Blasio would do very poorly among police, which is definitely a potent disadvantage.

there are about 765k deputized state and local officers in the USA.  the popular vote totaled 130m last time around.

...and I imagine this sub-group votes 3:2 or 2:1 Republican to begin with.  it's disproportionately male and white, to say nothing else.

My uncle is a strong Democrat and a policeman from California; he hates Bill DeBlasio, Chuy Garcia, Al Sharpton, etc.  I'm sure there are a good chunk of people like that. 

[© tweed]

yes, there probably are at least tens of thousands of people like that.  so?

[RFayette]

yes, there probably are at least tens of thousands of people like that.  so?

OK, here's my point:
1. A more extreme ideological candidate will hurt the Dems no matter what.
2. A Fraternal Order of Police endorsement can shift margins in a close race.
3. Many people with families/relatives in law enforcement will be indirectly swayed by this.

Look, my point is that these small factors can be enough to tip a close race in crucial swing states.  That's all.  I'm not saying De Blasio would get only 125 EVs or something, just that he would lose winnable states in part due to his loss of police support.

[© tweed]

he's not "ideologically extreme".  he played the part of the progressive to win the Dem primary, because Dem primary voters, especially in major cities, support major changes to the status quo and he proved able to say what they wanted to hear (but largely unable to do what they wanted him to do).

for otherwise-Democratic law enforcement personnel to make any kind of difference anywhere, the margin would have to be razor-thin to begin with, such that a dozen other factors could be pointed to as well.

[badgate]

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat.

he managed the sitting Democratic president's wife's Senate campaign in 2000.  it doesn't get much more "mainstream" than that.

Michelle Obama ran for senate in 2000?

[Mister Mets]

Jeb Bush would get to mock his brother for never getting to know what it feels like to have won 300+ Electoral Votes.

The default map...

Bush/ Safe carefully-vetted Republican- 337 Electoral Votes
De Blasio/ Klobuchar- 201 Electoral Votes

[Mister Mets]

yes, there probably are at least tens of thousands of people like that.  so?

OK, here's my point:
1. A more extreme ideological candidate will hurt the Dems no matter what.
2. A Fraternal Order of Police endorsement can shift margins in a close race.
3. Many people with families/relatives in law enforcement will be indirectly swayed by this.

Look, my point is that these small factors can be enough to tip a close race in crucial swing states.  That's all.  I'm not saying De Blasio would get only 125 EVs or something, just that he would lose winnable states in part due to his loss of police support.

It's also not just police officers voting against him that would hurt.

The police are relatively popular. It would be catastrophic for Democrats if support for the police becomes a partisan issue.

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat.

he managed the sitting Democratic president's wife's Senate campaign in 2000.  it doesn't get much more "mainstream" than that.

Michelle Obama ran for senate in 2000?

In 2000, Bill Clinton was the sitting President.

De Blasio has plenty of elements in his record that suggest he has more of a liberal activist background than most presidential contenders. He backed Dinkins for mayor (Keep in mind Dinkins won a close race and lost a close race in New York City) and managed Charles Rangel's campaign as well.