FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio & Bush with leads against Hillary

[Tender Branson]

49-43 Rubio/Clinton
47-43 Bush/Clinton

Favorables (favorable, unfavorable, neutral, don't know):

46-27-25-2 Rubio
45-31-23-1 Bush
41-39-19-1 Clinton

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from April 14 through April 16, 2015. A total of 625 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed on land-lines were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Those interviewed on cell phones were selected from a list of working cell phone numbers.

Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ±4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

This section also contains an over-sampling to include 400 registered Democratic voters. These additional voters were only asked the questions related to the Democratic primary election. They were not included in the general election section. The margin for error on this Democratic voters sample is no more that ±5%.

http://mason-dixon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/FL-POLL-APRIL-20TH-RELEASE-PRESIDENTIAL-CLINTON-BUSH-RUBIO.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Compared with their last poll, Rubio gains 10 points against Clinton while Bush loses 1%.

[Tender Branson]

In before pbrower, who will probably not include this poll in his map thread.

Because, well, it shows Republicans ahead ...

[Tender Branson]

In before pbrower, who will probably not include this poll in his map thread.

Because, well, it shows Republicans ahead ...

Mason-Dixon's final poll was about 7% off in 2012.

In any case, winning Florida is not optional for Republicans.  It's what they absolutely need to do, in order to have any chance at all.  You don't celebrate over Florida any more than Democrats should celebrate over winning Pennsylvania.

That explains it.

No, it does not.

Mason-Dixon obviously had a bad FL poll in 2012, but they were generally pretty good in other states in 2012 as well as in earlier Pres. elections.

If we are not including pollsters because they produced an outlier once, then we may just exclude virtually every pollster because even PPP, Quinnipiac etc. produce a junk poll here and then.

You are only excluding this poll here because it shows 2 Republicans ahead instead of Hillary.

That's the reason.

Besides, it's not unreasonable that Bush/Rubio are indeed ahead of Hillary right now in FL, because Quinnipiac has shown the same and because of the homestate effect (Bush) and the announcement-bump for Rubio.