90%=Safe
50%=Likely
30%=Lean
The onset of more Libertarian ideals within the Republican party has made them more competitive in (particularly rural) New England, with New Hampshire being lean Republican, Maine a tossup and Vermont only lean Democratic. Massachusetts has trended Republican somewhat, but is still likely Democratic. The rest of the northeast is still extremely Democratic, except for Pennsylvania, which is now lean Republican due to increasing Republicanism among working-class whites. The same cause has turned the entire Midwest Republican, except Illinois, and even it is now a swing state.
Appalachia is the safest Republican area in the country, with West Virginia having a PVI of R+35. Increasing black and Hispanic populations have made states such as Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas competitive, and North Carolina is lean Democratic. Florida is still a swing state, too.
Republicans are doing somewhat better with Hispanics and Asians now, so Colorado is lean Republican, and Nevada and New Mexico are still competitive, as is Arizona. The Pacific Northwest is now competitive for the same reason that upper New England is.
The electoral map gives Republicans a slight advantage; when you add together all the states that are lean, likely, or safe Republican, you get 196 electoral votes. At that point, Republicans only need Texas and Florida to crack 270 electoral votes. Democrats, by contrast, have only 169 electoral votes that lean their way; in addition to Texas and Florida, they need to carry at least two other battleground states to win the election.
