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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  A 2044 Election Scenario
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Author Topic: A 2044 Election Scenario  (Read 1703 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
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« on: April 15, 2015, 10:08:13 pm »

Let's do another one of these. Let's go with the Atlas consensus of the Presidency apparently. Based on a mix of my own views, a YouTube video I posted, and my opponent is my friend from Business class

2017-2021: Democrat
2021-2029: Republican
2029-2037: Democrat
2037-2045: Republican

Here are the 2044 candidates of the major parties. I've shortened their views and notes down to important points

Republican:
- Christian-atheist
- Pro-gay
- Pro-life personally but supports first trimester abortions, but also a heavy adoption ad campaign
- Wants to crack apart large monopolies a la TR
- Campaigns on eliminating arbitrary federal bureaucracy to be within constitutional means, and claims to be above partisanship and the "two-party dichotomy"
- With the constitutional restrcuturing comes aggressive spending cuts and lower business and income taxes, but higher capital gains taxes and a closing of corporate loopholes
- Job creation involves banning outsourcing and lowering of small business tax, the aforementioned trust busting, raising minimum wage for certain age groups, creating job programs and lowering taxes further in big cities like Detroit, and subsidizing wind power (and making it easier to obtain solar energy)
- Viciously pro-gun
- End all mass surveillance and the police state, though it comes with the constitutional restricting by eliminating the NSA and DHS
- Simplify immigration and resort to Portugal-style drug control
- Supports WOLF PAC
- Passionate, yet awkward and somewhat childlike with quirks

Democrat:
- Very "moderate hero," but you can tell he's hyperpartisan
- raise the minimum wage for everyone
- Raise income tax for top 4 brackets
- Increase environmental REGULATIONS
- Combine various departments together, but don't eliminate any.
- Heavier gun background checks along with registration and assault weapon ban
- Has an odd obsession with gay marriage, even if it is basically a won battle
- Anti-spying, too
- Institute a true federal curriculum
- Supports single-payer and a greater social safety net
- Makes references to societal norms/conformities and jokes about them. Very much values the collective more
- Stubborn, sarcastic, and rather jumpy. Doesn't like dogs, for instance, but still polite and has manners
- Very black and white  
- Acts very much like an SJW

Map? My friend approves his description apart from a few quips I just added in, BTW. Not trying to rag on him. We're interested who would win and how.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2015, 04:15:15 pm »

Let's do another one of these. Let's go with the Atlas consensus of the Presidency apparently. Based on a mix of my own views, a YouTube video I posted, and my opponent is my friend from Business class

2017-2021: Democrat
2021-2029: Republican
2029-2037: Democrat
2037-2045: Republican

Here are the 2044 candidates of the major parties. I've shortened their views and notes down to important points

Republican:
- Christian-atheist
- Pro-gay
- Pro-life personally but supports first trimester abortions, but also a heavy adoption ad campaign
- Wants to crack apart large monopolies a la TR
- Campaigns on eliminating arbitrary federal bureaucracy to be within constitutional means, and claims to be above partisanship and the "two-party dichotomy"
- With the constitutional restrcuturing comes aggressive spending cuts and lower business and income taxes, but higher capital gains taxes and a closing of corporate loopholes
- Job creation involves banning outsourcing and lowering of small business tax, the aforementioned trust busting, raising minimum wage for certain age groups, creating job programs and lowering taxes further in big cities like Detroit, and subsidizing wind power (and making it easier to obtain solar energy)
- Viciously pro-gun
- End all mass surveillance and the police state, though it comes with the constitutional restricting by eliminating the NSA and DHS
- Simplify immigration and resort to Portugal-style drug control
- Supports WOLF PAC
- Passionate, yet awkward and somewhat childlike with quirks

Democrat:
- Very "moderate hero," but you can tell he's hyperpartisan
- raise the minimum wage for everyone
- Raise income tax for top 4 brackets
- Increase environmental REGULATIONS
- Combine various departments together, but don't eliminate any.
- Heavier gun background checks along with registration and assault weapon ban
- Has an odd obsession with gay marriage, even if it is basically a won battle
- Anti-spying, too
- Institute a true federal curriculum
- Supports single-payer and a greater social safety net
- Makes references to societal norms/conformities and jokes about them. Very much values the collective more
- Stubborn, sarcastic, and rather jumpy. Doesn't like dogs, for instance, but still polite and has manners
- Very black and white  
- Acts very much like an SJW

Map? My friend approves his description apart from a few quips I just added in, BTW. Not trying to rag on him. We're interested who would win and how.

from 1993 until 2045 there are nothing but two term presidencies. I dont think so.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2015, 04:33:11 pm »

We all know the socialist party will come out of hiding by 2044.
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2015, 05:17:54 pm »

Why only two-termers? I am absolutely certain that at least one incumbent President will be defeated by 2045.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2015, 05:24:39 pm »

Why only two-termers? I am absolutely certain that at least one incumbent President will be defeated by 2045.
One was.  2020.
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Does the title even matter?
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2015, 05:28:25 pm »

Why only two-termers? I am absolutely certain that at least one incumbent President will be defeated by 2045.
One was.  2020.

Ah, yes, thanks for pointing that out. But there's still too many easy reelections for me to believe.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2015, 05:37:45 pm »

Why only two-termers? I am absolutely certain that at least one incumbent President will be defeated by 2045.
One was.  2020.

Ah, yes, thanks for pointing that out. But there's still too many easy reelections for me to believe.
I would point out from 1992 to 2016 there were only two-term Presidents, so the same thing is just happening here.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2015, 06:08:52 pm »


90%=Safe
50%=Likely
30%=Lean

The onset of more Libertarian ideals within the Republican party has made them more competitive in (particularly rural) New England, with New Hampshire being lean Republican, Maine a tossup and Vermont only lean Democratic. Massachusetts has trended Republican somewhat, but is still likely Democratic. The rest of the northeast is still extremely Democratic, except for Pennsylvania, which is now lean Republican due to increasing Republicanism among working-class whites. The same cause has turned the entire Midwest Republican, except Illinois, and even it is now a swing state.

Appalachia is the safest Republican area in the country, with West Virginia having a PVI of R+35. Increasing black and Hispanic populations have made states such as Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas competitive, and North Carolina is lean Democratic. Florida is still a swing state, too.

Republicans are doing somewhat better with Hispanics and Asians now, so Colorado is lean Republican, and Nevada and New Mexico are still competitive, as is Arizona. The Pacific Northwest is now competitive for the same reason that upper New England is.

The electoral map gives Republicans a slight advantage; when you add together all the states that are lean, likely, or safe Republican, you get 196 electoral votes. At that point, Republicans only need Texas and Florida to crack 270 electoral votes. Democrats, by contrast, have only 169 electoral votes that lean their way; in addition to Texas and Florida, they need to carry at least two other battleground states to win the election.
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