2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project: COMPLETE!
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  2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project: COMPLETE!
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Author Topic: 2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project: COMPLETE!  (Read 51272 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #175 on: August 08, 2015, 12:01:00 AM »
« edited: August 08, 2015, 12:14:50 AM by cinyc »

Alaska is kind of interesting.

Anybody know what makes Southeastern Alaskan whites more Democratic than the rest of the state?

The state capital of Juneau is Southeast Alaska's largest city, with all the attendant government workers and the liberalism that comes with it.  Plus, it is more dependent on government than the rest of the state.  Even leaving a city like Juneau, Sitka or Ketchikan with your car requires a trip on the government-subsized state ferry.  There is no road out of there.  Their economies are also more tourism-dependent than much of the rest of the state, especially cruise ship tourism.  And the main extraction resources are timber and fishing, not oil or gold.
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Craziaskowboi
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« Reply #176 on: August 09, 2015, 03:09:52 AM »

Pennsylvania has been added.

PA 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 44.0%



I invite those familiar with PA to give it an extra-close inspection, as the general variance in color throughout many areas makes me wonder if I could have made any mistakes. This may just have to do with PA having relatively few, large counties.

Well, so much for what James Carville said. First of all, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia clearly aren't the only parts of Pennsylvania with a significant population of white Obama supporters. Second of all, the most conservative county in Pennsylvania (Fulton County) still had a higher level of Obama support among whites than the state of Alabama did, and was essentially equivalent to the most conservative county in both Ohio and Illinois, despite neither of those states getting the "hick" label slapped on them as often as Pennsylvania does. The "rural T" in Pennsylvania looks more like Indiana than Alabama on those maps.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #177 on: August 09, 2015, 07:03:34 AM »

Amazing work, Adam! It really reveals some fascinating patterns.

Just a quick question: Is it a percentage of the 2PV, or are third parties included in the %?

I'd love to see a Hispanic Romney lovers map next. Cheesy
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Velasco
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« Reply #178 on: August 09, 2015, 11:42:50 AM »

Whites should love Obama more, if only for the great effort made here. Some counties that attracted my attention are placed in states like Idaho and Montana (Missoula, Blaine, Deer Lodge, Silver Bow, etc) ... and the tone of Teton stands out in Wyoming. Probably it's because I'd like doing tourism there, or something. It's very illustrative the sharp contrast between Orleans and the surrounding parishes. Brilliant.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #179 on: August 09, 2015, 12:37:37 PM »

Adam deserves a gold trophy.
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Craziaskowboi
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« Reply #180 on: August 09, 2015, 03:36:53 PM »

But seriously, this map is a godsend. Now I can quantify with actual data exactly how wrong James Carville was in his analysis of Pennsylvania politics. For example, I can illustrate that all but eight counties in Pennsylvania gave Obama at least 25% of the white vote, while all but eight counties in Alabama gave Obama less than 25% of the white vote. What a stark contrast! It's as if James Carville really didn't know what he was talking about after all!
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Sbane
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« Reply #181 on: August 09, 2015, 06:02:47 PM »

Excellent work!

While you were compiling this, were you also able to estimate the Hispanic and Asian vote by county? I think that would be very important to validate the results in California at the very least. For example, the white Obama % seems a little high in Los Angeles County and a little low in the Central Valley. Los Angeles County Hispanics are likely voting more Dem than overall Hispanic voters in the state and Central Valley Hispanics are certainly more Republican. I think you got the Bay Area spot on though.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #182 on: August 10, 2015, 05:05:30 PM »

Excellent work!

While you were compiling this, were you also able to estimate the Hispanic and Asian vote by county? I think that would be very important to validate the results in California at the very least. For example, the white Obama % seems a little high in Los Angeles County and a little low in the Central Valley. Los Angeles County Hispanics are likely voting more Dem than overall Hispanic voters in the state and Central Valley Hispanics are certainly more Republican. I think you got the Bay Area spot on though.

Yep. This had to be done in order to plug and play the percentage of white support. I lamented the creation of maps for states like CA, AZ, NM, TX, NV, and so on because of their high Latino and/or Asian populations. It makes it very difficult, for two reasons, one of which you've already outlined.

The first is determining what percentage of the vote was received in various parts of the state. By and large, I changed Latino support based on urban/rural divides, and to a lesser degree, where more established Latino populations existed versus newer populations (first/second generation versus fourth/fifth/sixth generation; in some cases - particularly major urban areas - it's a combination of both).

I start out with a universal formula for each state based off of the 2008 exit polling data for the state and then make baseline adjustments to individual entities using what we know about swings by race at the national level (or I use detailed 2012 exit poll data, when available). From there, it's a process of tweaking at first the counties that appear to be notably off, and then working through select regions that present a similar problem (though occasionally I miss one, as nclib pointed out Costilla, CO).

Secondly and before I do that, though...I have to try and calculate which groups made up what percentage of the electorate. With Latinos in particular, this is the bigger struggle of the two calculations. Estimations have to be made about what percentage of each county is undocumented, which can vary very heavily in states where Latino populations are high (in states like IA or even KS, it's a lot more uniform) and among citizens, what percentage are registered to vote and then actually do vote. In Georgia, thankfully, the SoS record voter turnout and registration by race, but I'm not aware of any other state that records turnout by race.

So basically, take a county with a population that's 35% Latino. Estimating that 65% of adults are citizens and that of those, electorate is equivalent to 2/3 of that citizen number means that Latinos are 15.2% of the electorate. If you estimate it as 50% and 60% respectively, then that number becomes 10.5%. That's a pretty substantial difference, and it becomes a whole lot messier in counties that are heavily Latino. I had instances in 80% Latino counties in South TX where changing the level of Latino support or turnout by 5 points changed white support by 50 points. In those cases, the room for error is very high, so you have to just tweak until you get a regional result/formula that you believe makes the most sense.

CA (and to a lesser extent, the greater SW) still need tweaking with Latino support/turnout formulas. The CA version (as I think I disclosed) was my first attempt with the basic formula + a few small tweaks for some specific rural and urban counties that were big outliers. This will lead to regional discrepancies overstating or understating support.
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Vosem
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« Reply #183 on: January 22, 2017, 11:03:01 PM »

This is such a fascinating subject to look at, especially in the context of Hillary Clinton's various losses and gains with different groups of white voters. Are you planning on eventually making a 2016 White Clinton Lovers Map? I'd be very excited to see one.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #184 on: January 23, 2017, 04:23:51 PM »

Just a quick question: Is it a percentage of the 2PV, or are third parties included in the %?

Still interested in an answer to that, fwiw.
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politics_king
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« Reply #185 on: January 24, 2017, 07:19:12 AM »

When Obama originally ran, he was a leftist, that's why he beat Hillary and her crew. He was Progressive, then he got into office and realized the situation isn't as easy to change. Bernie was our man to get us over the top. He couldn't endorse and the union that I'm a member of couldn't endorse either. It's Politics, you have to see the outline of the base, if Joe ran, it would've been a landslide, I believe that. Joe would've mopped the floor with Trump, but his son passing away made Joe realize he should probably step aside, personal family life came into his situation. That's why Bernie became a catalyst for the left. We wanted that Progressive, and Joe was always a working-class candidate.

That's why I think the Obama/Biden relationship will go down as probably the best working government relationship in history. Joe always went to bat for Barack, because while Barack couldn't presidentially get us over the hump, Joe was working in the Senate to make things happen. It'll be very interesting from a historian perspective because Barack tried, he really tried but his race (it's true) and pragmatism made him an enemy. The narrative was always there.

You can't tell me in 2009, when the "Tea Party" lost their minds and fought him every extent, could say Barack made us look bad by 2016. He inherited a collapsing economy, saved it and gave us a push to keep trucking along, but the income disparity made us look weak. He couldn't help that though, any incoming President would've had a bad card to be dealt with on people's economics. The Dems ed up because they didn't endorse anyone in the National Ticket.

I know the majority of us Dems were for Bernie but we needed that status-quo to keep trucking along with Hillary. Grave mistake. At the end of the day, if you had to make an all-in bet, the Obama/Biden administration with a gun to their head would've chose Bernie. Because why didn't Barack immediately go with Hillary if all his policies was with hers. Because it wasn't. 2018/2020 is an interesting year because Trump is public enemy #1 not only with us but his own party. He's defeat able and untrustworthy.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #186 on: January 24, 2017, 08:15:26 PM »

Just a quick question: Is it a percentage of the 2PV, or are third parties included in the %?

Still interested in an answer to that, fwiw.

It's built to reflect Obama's actual share of the vote, so it'd (if indirectly) be the latter.

This is such a fascinating subject to look at, especially in the context of Hillary Clinton's various losses and gains with different groups of white voters. Are you planning on eventually making a 2016 White Clinton Lovers Map? I'd be very excited to see one.

Probably, but I'm not sure when I'll begin. I spent more time on this one than I care to admit.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #187 on: December 22, 2020, 03:19:53 PM »

Comparing the best white Obama county in the state vs. most pro-gay county in each state in the gay marriage initiatives, since there is of course a correlation:

                  Gay      White Obama
Alabama      Sumter      Greene   
Arkansas      Pulaski      Pulaski/Washington
Florida        Monroe      Broward
Georgia       Athens-Clarke      DeKalb      
Kentucky      Fayette        Elliott
Louisiana      Orleans        Orleans
Maine         Cumberland      Cumberland
Maryland      Montgomery      Prince George's
Michigan      Washtenaw      Washtenaw
Minnesota      Hennepin      St. Louis
Mississippi      Tunica       Noxubee/Marshall
Missouri      St. Louis city      St. Louis city   
Nebraska      Douglas       Lancaster      
North Carolina      Orange      Orange
North Dakota      Grand Forks      Ransom
Ohio             Athens           Athens
Oklahoma      Cleveland      Okmulgee/Muskogee
South Carolina      Charleston      Orangeburg
Tennessee      Nashville-Davidson      Nashville-Davidson/Houston
Texas          Travis                Travis   
Virginia      Charlottesville (city)      Petersburg (city)   
Wisconsin      Dane              Dane

Many are either the same or both counties are at near the top of the other category. Others (GA, MD, VA) have the best white Obama county having a high black population, pulling down the gay marriage result.

Elliott County, KY votes on economic issues. Broward, FL has many elderly Democrats. ND is surprising--Ransom County seems pretty non-descript.

Where did you find that data?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #188 on: December 27, 2020, 11:36:11 PM »

If only the data from this could be restored online! The loss of this map, and that of Reagente's, thanks to the shutdown of Google Fusion Tables, has been a cause of endless frustration.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #189 on: December 28, 2020, 02:48:46 PM »

This is very true
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