Sabato Releases 2005/2006 Gubernatorial Predictions

[Alcon]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2005042801

Republican to Democrat (1)
New York

Democrat to Toss-Up (2)
Iowa
Virginia

Republican to Toss-Up (6)
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Ohio

Retain Democrat (14)
Arizona
Kansas
Illinois
Maine
Michigan
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Retain Republican (15)
California
Connecticut
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Nebraska
Nevada
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas
Vermont

No Elections (6D-6R)
Delaware (D)
Indiana (R)
Kentucky (R)
Louisiana (D)
Mississippi (R)
Missouri (R)
Montana (D)
North Carolina (D)
North Dakota (R)
Utah (R)
Washington (D)
West Virginia (D)

Current
Republican 28
Democrat 22

Projection
Democrat 21
Republican 21
Toss-Up 8

[TheresNoMoney]

I question quite a few of those. I think Massachusetts and California may likely go Democrat. I also shudder to think of Jim Gibbons as governor of Nevada, he is a despicable person. Hopefully the Democrats can defeat him.

[Moooooo]

Maryland should be a tossup at the very least.

[TheresNoMoney]

Maryland should be a tossup at the very least.

Agreed.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Yeah, I don't see how anyone can consider Ohio more competitive than Maryland...just compare the Dem candidates in the two races. 

I guess he's assuming that Romney runs again, otherwise this is a Dem pick-up. 

In Nevada, it looks like pretty smooth sailing for Gibbons.  Who's going to beat him?

But overall, I don't think things are as good for the Dems as Sabato sees it.  I think both Democratic-held Toss-Ups are more likely to turnover than any of the GOP-held Toss-Ups.

[Sarnstrom]

Republican to Toss-Up (6)
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Ohio

Is Frank Murkowski really that unpopular?

[The Duke]

Republican to Toss-Up (6)
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Ohio

Is Frank Murkowski really that unpopular?

No, and at this point you've got to be stupid to believe she is.  She beat Tony Knowles, so obviously she's at least tolerable.  I find this list very favorable to the Dems.

[A18]

These are gubernatorial elections, so her father is what matters.

[The Duke]

These are gubernatorial elections, so her father is what matters.

I think the assumption is that Alaska is considered a toss-up only because of Lisa.  Since Frank is the one who appointed her Senator, she WILL be an issue in the campaign.

[nini2287]

If we're not going to have lean categories, I'd consider KS,  NH, WY, GA, MD, MA toss-ups, plues possibly a few more states like VT and OK.