Malta Bird Massacre (eh.. Spring Hunting) Referendum - April 11, 2015

[politicus]

On April 11 Malta will be voting on whether "hunters" (really just shooters) can continue mass killing of migratory birds (quails and turtle doves) passing the island each spring.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maltese_spring_hunting_referendum,_2015

The background is that Alternattiva Demokratika - The Green Party joined forces with environmental organisations to launch a petition calling for a referendum to ban bird hunting. 14% of Malta's citizens signed the petition and the Constitutional Court agreed to holding the referendum before the hunting season starts.

A poll quoted in Malta Today apparently (unsurprisingly) shows dedicated hunters will vote, but that No dominates among those that may vote (but no relevant numbers quoted).

So mobilization will be crucial for the greenies and ornithologists etc. in the Coalition for the Abolition of Spring Hunting (CASH) and a low turnout will be the best bet for their opponents in The Hunter's Federation (FKNK) and Kaccaturi San Ubertu/St. Hubert Hunters (KSU).

The survey showed that 71.5% will surely vote while a further 13.3% will probably vote. 6% are saying that they will probably not vote, while 7% are sure of not voting.  

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/national/49217/72_sure_to_vote_in_hunting_referendum#.VR6B7OHbAZM

The question will be the cumbersome:

"Do you agree that the provisions of the ‘Framework for Allowing a Derogation Opening a Spring Hunting Season for Turtle Dove and Quail Regulations’ (Subsidiary Legislation 504.94) should continue in force?"

So shooters will have to vote Yes and nature lovers No. A no would mean cancellation of this years hunting season.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh Christ. I watched Packham's recent documentary on the slaughter and was almost sick. Hopefully these psychotic bastards are humiliated in the polls.

Malta actually has a special exemption from the EU Birds directive to allow them to kill endangered birds like turtle doves and quail. Even worse the legal hunts allow illegal hunters to 'hide' their activities, killing swifts etc.

Very gross all round.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank God Malta has such high turnout rates. If turnout was what it is in US initiatives, this would have no chance to pass.

[politicus]

Poll from late January showed a toght race with the Yes side gaining, but had a small sample of only 600.
                  
How will you vote in the Spring hunting referendum?         
July 2013   June 2014   September 2014 January 2015      

No     59.9       44.1                 50.2           38.6      
Yes    28.1      32.3                 26.9           40.0   
WV    0.0        6.1                 15.0            7.7      
Dunno12.1       17.6                  7.9           12.7      


By education:

No share:

University 67.2
Post Secondary 49.4
Secondary   34.6
Primary 23.6   

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/data_and_surveys/49098/survey_voter_apathy_gives_hunters_vital_edge#.VR6iPOHbAZN   

Subsamples are too small to be anywhere near reliable, but curiously No leads women 18-34 and 55+, but not 35-54.
   


   

[politicus]

There is a solid majority for a ban among Conservatives and a clear Labour majority for continued hunting. So it seems to be mainly a class thing. Wealthy and well-educated voters want a an end to the slaughter and working class voters want to shoot (or let their menfolk shoot). Men of course more pro-shooting than women.

Nationalist Party (43,3% in 2013)

Yes 15
No 71

Labour (54,8% in 2013)

Yes 58
No 20

[politicus]

Seems like Labour is in trouble for letting the referendum go on - alienating part of their base. Demos in autumn.

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20140922/local/Hunters-protest-turns-into-a-violent-ambush.536673

"“You depended on us but you can forget all our votes now,” one protester, who called for “revenge” on the government, shouted.

Many of the hunters claimed to be Labour supporters but said they had been abandoned by the party.

“He [PM Joseph Muscat] needed us for votes. Well, now he’ll see because he has just lost thousands of them.

“My entire family won’t vote,” one said, adding that he had taken to burning his collection of Labour Party flags."

[politicus]

The No side has a 6,3% lead in new poll based on 1100 respondents and a margin of error on +/-3 points. Yes only leads among men 55+ whereas the No share is highest among young women aged between 18 and 34. Golden rule of politics: If old men oppose something and young women support it, it's the right thing to do.

First poll after Labour PM Joseph Muscat's pro-spring hunting declaration two weeks ago, but it hasn't had a noticeable effect.

No 39,7 (-0,5)
Yes 33.4% (-0,1)
Dunno 16,7% (+1,2)
Abstain 8,0 (+0,4)
No reply 2,2 (-1,0)

Women and Labour voters are overrepresented among undecideds.

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/data_and_surveys/51471/maltatoday_survey_no_to_spring_hunting_retains_7point_lead_#.VSIQV5PbAZN

[politicus]

There are also Local Council Elections on April 11, which might help turnout.

Early election (for hospitalized and people being abroad on election day and the elderly) mostly conducted April 4. 2,705 or 68.9% of elderly residents cast their vote, while 1,135 or 90% of registered early voters cast their ballots bringing the total of early votes to 3,840.

A few extra early votes: Patients at Mater Dei Hospital, Gozo General Hospital, Mount Carmel and  Karin Grech Hosptal will vote on April 9 and assistant electoral commisioners on Friday 10th.

[Zanas]

Malta's Labour just joined Australia's Labour on my "despicable labour parties worldwide" shelf. They're not the only two, btw.

[Boston Bread]

Seems like Labour is in trouble for letting the referendum go on - alienating part of their base. Demos in autumn.

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20140922/local/Hunters-protest-turns-into-a-violent-ambush.536673

"“You depended on us but you can forget all our votes now,” one protester, who called for “revenge” on the government, shouted.

Many of the hunters claimed to be Labour supporters but said they had been abandoned by the party.

“He [PM Joseph Muscat] needed us for votes. Well, now he’ll see because he has just lost thousands of them.

“My entire family won’t vote,” one said, adding that he had taken to burning his collection of Labour Party flags."

Where would Labour/Yes votes go to? The nationalists base is pro-conservation according to the poll.

[politicus]

Seems like Labour is in trouble for letting the referendum go on - alienating part of their base. Demos in autumn.

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20140922/local/Hunters-protest-turns-into-a-violent-ambush.536673

"“You depended on us but you can forget all our votes now,” one protester, who called for “revenge” on the government, shouted.

Many of the hunters claimed to be Labour supporters but said they had been abandoned by the party.

“He [PM Joseph Muscat] needed us for votes. Well, now he’ll see because he has just lost thousands of them.

“My entire family won’t vote” one said, adding that he had taken to burning his collection of Labour Party flags."

Where would Labour/Yes votes go to? The nationalists base is pro-conservation according to the poll.

Stay home

[politicus]

Malta has very high turnouts: 93,8% in 2013 and 93,3% in 2008. It would be very unpleasant (to put it mildly..) for Labour if part of their base started not to vote. They rely on social status playing almost no role for whether you are voting and if Malta started becoming more normal with the better educated and more afflluent voting at much higher rates than the plebs they could face permanent Conservative dominance. Elections are often quite close in Malta fx the Nationalists won 143,468 to 141,888 in 2008, so even a small decline in turnout would be bad.

http://www.um.edu.mt/projects/maltaelections/stvsystem/howmaltavotes

"Political competition in Malta is marked by a high degree of partisanship. Divisions among the political parties are sharply drawn; political discussion is often heated; and there have even been a few instances of political violence in recent years. Intense partisanship goes hand in hand with a high voter turnout at elections. Maltese voters have the highest turnout figures of all Western democracies. Also, they show their partisan commitment at election time by the remaining impressively loyal to their political party."

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have a hard time believing that a referendum on bird hunting could precipitate the inexorable downfall of the Labour Party.

[politicus]

I have a hard time believing that a referendum on bird hunting could precipitate the inexorable downfall of the Labour Party.

Certainly not after Muscat chose to recommend a Yes, but they clearly did not want to take any chances.

But you should not underestimate the importance of such male working class rituals. It is like forbidding bull fighting. The point is it is only a rather small group that would need to stop voting for it to have a significant effect.

[politicus]

The Nationalist Party has remained neutral in the campaign - as they also did in the referendum on civil unions - and has critized Labour for politicizing the issue.

Labour deputy leader Toni Abela has said he is personally against spring hunting. A number of Jesuit priests have come out against hunting.

Muscat seems in trouble over this:

Labour’s electoral programme had promised that his government would guarantee spring hunting, but when the referendum was called they promised to stay out of the controversy, as is the tradition on referendums on ethical matters. But then Muscat caved in to the hunting lobby "the very morning that a Malta Today survey was showing that the No vote was seven points ahead."

He has also accused Nationalist leader Simon Busuttil of campaigning in favour of No, despite his declared neutrality, which backfired because the vast majority of Busuttis voters hope he is doing just that.

[politicus]

@Tony if you think this can not hurt Labour hard at least their opponents see it differently. According to The Nationalist mouthpiece Time of Malta this is almost a battle of the soul of Malta: Class, corruption and political power:

(even for a country with a tradition for hyperbolic rhetoric, this is still harsh)

"Muscat is out of his depth here because he cannot understand that educated people will never accept hunting on principle."

"A win for the No vote is Muscat’s biggest nightmare because he knows he will get the blame for the demise of spring hunting. He knows exactly how to read the thinking of his gullible, working class supporters. He knows how to please them and he also knows their limited understanding of democratic principles. If spring hunting gets banned, he knows hunters will be out on the streets blaming him because it happened under his watch. Hunting is an immensely political issue and it could be the beginning of the undoing of that great swindle called Malta Tagħna Lkoll ('Malta For All' 2013 manifesto)"

"A victory for hunters would prove that unholy, backroom alliances with a soulless Labour Party do pay off in the end. It is worth investing in Labour because they have taken prostitution to a higher level. If the hunters win, people with vested interests like them will be queuing up more than ever before to ally with Labour come the next election.

The votes and the money will pour in. This country will be ransacked and squeezed dry like a lemon by a Labour government that will continue to sell Malta to vested interest groups, from the Armier squatters to major project developers and to international investors from undemocratic states.
With Muscat throwing his full weight behind the hunters, we can be rest assured that his blind supporters will do his bidding and vote accordingly

Labour has become the antithesis of the common good and a parody of what it once stood for. Power has replaced principle and power, absolute power, is the recipe for corruption. Inversely, a win for the No vote would send a clear message that Labour’s backroom deals are a no-go."

"This referendum has nothing to do with the shooting of quails or God knows what other bird most of us do not even recognise: this referendum is about decency, a choice between good and bad, a choice between the educated and the uneducated, between the middle class and the working class, between what Labour promised in its electoral programme and what it promised behind closed doors. Voting No is a political decision, as it should be."

"Muscat cannot afford to lose the hunting referendum. A victory for the No vote, a victory for the common good, a victory for environmentalists, a victory for idealists will send shockwaves down Labour’s crooked spine.

The rejection of spring hunting by a conscientious moral majority would prove that Muscat’s unprincipled populist policies will lose in the end. A victory for the No vote would tell Muscat that his way of government, with his secret backroom dealings both locally and internationally, is not the right way to run the country."

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20150331/opinion/Why-hunters-must-lose.562115

[politicus]

Of 338,447 registered voters 315,739 have collected their voting documents, so potentially a high turnout, which should be an advantage for No.

Malta Today editorial:

"Malta’s hunting phenomenon is no longer about birdlife conservation or even the environment.

It has become a destabilising political force with significant impact on the rule of law, and a strong influence on decision-making that impacts on all law-abiding citizens and those who believe in democracy, honesty and civic-mindedness.

The sheer level of lawlessness into which this pastime has descended is no longer tolerable in a 21st century EU member state. The State has to respond with such harsh penalties, because it finds it to be unable to allow hunters to regulate themselves."

"left to their own devices, the political parties are incapable of legislating in a way that offers adequate protection to migratory birdlife, or even to citizens who are sometimes victims of the hunters’ excesses."

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/comment/editorial/51695/why_we_ask_you_to_vote_no#.VSbhMZPbAZM

[politicus]

Local elections in 34 of 68 municipalities (kunsilli lokali) as well - Mosta and St Paul’s Bay being the biggest. Labour won 19 of them in 2012 with a record 57,3-40,7 difference, so they are almost guaranteed to lose some support. St Paul’s Bay which had never gone Labour before 2012 and where PN turnout colllapsed from 4,364 to 2,505 while Labours vote kept steady will likely be among them (a 35,5% turnout election in 2012).

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/national/51591/labour_defending_17point_majority#.VSbkkpPbAZM



It will be interesting to compare referendum results from municipalities with local council elections to those without - and kunsilli lokali for local councils is a FF term.

Local elections in: Birgu, Senglea, Qormi, Żebbuġ (Malta), Siġġiewi, Attard, Balzan, Dingli, Birżebbuġa, Floriana, Gżira, Għajnsielem, Għargħur, Ħamrun, Iklin, Kercem, Kirkop, Luqa, Marsa, Marsaxlokk, Mosta, Munxar, Nadur, Paola, Qala, Safi, St Julians, San Lawrenz, St Paul's Bay, Santa Lucija, Swieqi, Xagħra, Żebbuġ (Gozo) and Żurrieq.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Maltese is like Italian with weird letters like "k" added in the mix.

[politicus]

Maltese is like Italian with weird letters like "k" added in the mix.

It is only 50% Italian/Sicilian - the rest is mostly Arabic with some English and the grammar is Siculo-Arabic.

As a Nordic I find the Ks a FF quality.

Their political culture is as crazy as the Italian just within a British two party system.

[politicus]

Live updates:

www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/national/51717/live_malta_votes_in_referendum_on_spring_hunting#.VSkBIpPbAZN

[politicus]

Turnout seems to be on par with the 71,6% divorce referendum, that is somewhere in between - neither very high, nor low. It might be close. 80%+ turnout would have been more comforting. 93.8% of voting documents or the referendum were collected, while "only" 83,8% for the local elections. So potentially there could have been a high turnout.

[politicus]

"Police were forced to intervene at room 167 at the Paola Primary School after assistant electoral commissioners were involved in a punch-up, just a few minutes ago, sources say."

Christ.. Crazy Malta.

[politicus]

Polls closed.

[politicus]

Counting will begin at 9am tomorrow. No exit poll.