ABC/WaPo national poll: Hillary ahead by 14% and more

[Gallium]

Democrats getting comfortable about Hillary's good polling numbers would create a more likely chance of there being a major mess up that could cost her the race.

There might not be a major mess up, but any minor gaffe, any bad poll, any sign of friction between campaign staff is going to be blown up as apocalyptic events. The beltway press still call her book tour a DISASTER! due to one gaffe and the scrutiny is now going increase a hundredfold. She's going to need a strong strategy in place to deal with it.

[Ebsy]

Where has there been opinion polling for Missouri?

[Ebsy]

Where has there been opinion polling for Missouri?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=207789.0

Thanks. I would like to see this confirmed by other polls, but the pollsters seem content to ignore us. :rip:

[Devils30]

GOP donors think that because Jeb is moderate on immigration it means he will get the votes of independents. Most indies are not politically active and do not follow things closely if at all. Their first reaction to another Bush is "come on, are you kidding"? With Hillary the Clinton's at least have the fact that Bill is perceived as having been a good President.

[Reginald]

These national polls are worthless. We need at least RV.

This is among RVs, according to RCP anyway.

It's of adults, but they've got RV numbers as well if you dig into King's link. Turns out, not much changes:

Clinton 53 / Bush 41
Clinton 54 / Walker 40
Clinton 54 / Rubio 39
Clinton 56 / Cruz 39

[Ebsy]

These national polls are worthless. We need at least RV.

This is among RVs, according to RCP anyway.

It's of adults, but they've got RV numbers as well if you dig into King's link. Turns out, not much changes:

Clinton 53 / Bush 41
Clinton 54 / Walker 40
Clinton 54 / Rubio 39
Clinton 56 / Cruz 39

Thanks.

[pbrower2a]

These national polls are worthless. We need at least RV.

This is among RVs, according to RCP anyway.

It's of adults, but they've got RV numbers as well if you dig into King's link. Turns out, not much changes:

Clinton 53 / Bush 41
Clinton 54 / Walker 40
Clinton 54 / Rubio 39
Clinton 56 / Cruz 39

This is strange new territory. Unless new voters of 2016 are unusually Democratic in their leaning or current registered voters who do not vote in 2016 (which could be those who die before they can vote) are heavily Republican, it is hard to see how Hillary Clinton can gain on these figures. At this point the undecided who end up voting are Republican-leaning, so figure that 

Clinton 54 / Bush 46
Clinton 55 / Walker 45
Clinton 54 / Rubio 45
Clinton 57 / Cruz 43 

is how things would turn out.

Does she build on the huge Obama margins in some states of 2008? Not likely. Those are max-out areas. Her gains are likely to be outside the Democratic firewall.

Nobody can tell so far where those gains would be. Swing states like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia? Maybe, but that would not be enough to account for such margins. States that her husband was the last to carry? Could be. Upper Plains states (Kansas and northward?) I have yet to see any sign of that.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a joke poll.