Which state would be most likely to go Democratic?

[Abraham Reagan]

I really don't know...

[Ebsy]

Definitely Kentucky.

[Sumner 1868]

Either Kentucky or Arkansas. Either way, it won't be Oklahoma.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The right kind of Democrat can win West Virginia statewide.  They still do. 

[Rockefeller GOP]

The right kind of Democrat can win West Virginia statewide.  They still do. 

This.  I'll go WV > AR > KY > AL > OK

[TDAS04]

Arkansas with Hillary as the candidate.  Otherwise Kentucky. 

[bobloblaw]

By "most likely" we means where the % change is less than 1%. So 1% for WV and .01% for OK

[Mr. Illini]

lolklahoma

[Bojack Horseman]

The right kind of Democrat can win West Virginia statewide.  They still do. 

Mike Dukakis carried West Virginia. I'm saying WV.

[Mr. Illini]

The right kind of Democrat can win West Virginia statewide.  They still do. 

Mike Dukakis carried West Virginia. I'm saying WV.

♫♫ Oh, the times, they are a changin'. ♫♫

[ElectionsGuy]

Kentucky is the only place left where there hasn't been a collapse of the statewide Democratic party. West Virginia is arguable, but 2014 proved the state's Democratic rule is pretty much done.

I know these are presidential elections were talking about, but all these states went >60% Romney last time and Kentucky has the most powerful Democratic party, so that's that.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Kentucky is the only place left where there hasn't been a collapse of the statewide Democratic party. West Virginia is arguable, but 2014 proved the state's Democratic rule is pretty much done.

I know these are presidential elections were talking about, but all these states went >60% Romney last time and Kentucky has the most powerful Democratic party, so that's that.

Given the strength of Moore-Capito and that 2014 appeared to be a GOP wave (can we really make THAT many long term predictions based off of a cycle that saw Republicans win the governorship in Maryland?), I'm going to hold off on calling WV just yet.  2016 will be very telling.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I'd go with WV.  Kentucky could go for a populist Democrat who supports coal and downplays social issues however.

[IceSpear]

I'd go with WV.  Kentucky could go for a populist Democrat who supports coal and downplays social issues however.

Anyway, all of these places approach 0%. Kentucky is the only one with a strong statewide Democratic Party, but it's a fluke. Eventually it will go the way of every other Appalachian state, likely sooner rather than later. I voted Arkansas since there's an extremely slim chance Hillary could win it if multiple factors conspire in her favor. West Virginia would be more likely if Democrats nominated Manchin, but that will never happen, so...

[ElectionsGuy]

Kentucky is the only place left where there hasn't been a collapse of the statewide Democratic party. West Virginia is arguable, but 2014 proved the state's Democratic rule is pretty much done.

I know these are presidential elections were talking about, but all these states went >60% Romney last time and Kentucky has the most powerful Democratic party, so that's that.

Given the strength of Moore-Capito and that 2014 appeared to be a GOP wave (can we really make THAT many long term predictions based off of a cycle that saw Republicans win the governorship in Maryland?), I'm going to hold off on calling WV just yet.  2016 will be very telling.

Even if it was a wave, the GOP made massive gains in both chambers of the state legislature. We will have to wait until 2016 to make a final judgement because that's when all the statewide offices are up, but as of now it looks really bad for WV Dems.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Kentucky is the only place left where there hasn't been a collapse of the statewide Democratic party. West Virginia is arguable, but 2014 proved the state's Democratic rule is pretty much done.

I know these are presidential elections were talking about, but all these states went >60% Romney last time and Kentucky has the most powerful Democratic party, so that's that.

Given the strength of Moore-Capito and that 2014 appeared to be a GOP wave (can we really make THAT many long term predictions based off of a cycle that saw Republicans win the governorship in Maryland?), I'm going to hold off on calling WV just yet.  2016 will be very telling.

Even if it was a wave, the GOP made massive gains in both chambers of the state legislature. We will have to wait until 2016 to make a final judgement because that's when all the statewide offices are up, but as of now it looks really bad for WV Dems.

I agree it doesn't look good, just saying we really do need to see 2016 first to be sure.  I mean, remember how many seats Democrats won back in the South in '06?  I remember articles talking about how Bush fatigue had completely saved the "institution" of the Southern Democrat, LOL.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Kentucky is the only place left where there hasn't been a collapse of the statewide Democratic party. West Virginia is arguable, but 2014 proved the state's Democratic rule is pretty much done.

I know these are presidential elections were talking about, but all these states went >60% Romney last time and Kentucky has the most powerful Democratic party, so that's that.

Given the strength of Moore-Capito and that 2014 appeared to be a GOP wave (can we really make THAT many long term predictions based off of a cycle that saw Republicans win the governorship in Maryland?), I'm going to hold off on calling WV just yet.  2016 will be very telling.

Even if it was a wave, the GOP made massive gains in both chambers of the state legislature. We will have to wait until 2016 to make a final judgement because that's when all the statewide offices are up, but as of now it looks really bad for WV Dems.

I agree it doesn't look good, just saying we really do need to see 2016 first to be sure.  I mean, remember how many seats Democrats won back in the South in '06?  I remember articles talking about how Bush fatigue had completely saved the "institution" of the Southern Democrat, LOL.

Not many. 2 or 3?

Maybe '08 then?  Look at the '08 map, the South is quite blue.

[DS0816]

…Alabama.

West Virginia and Arkansas are on their way to becoming like Oklahoma. (The only Arkansas county Barack Obama carried with his re-election in 2012, with more than 50,000 voters, was Pulaski County, with its county seat Little Rock—and this was with less than 55 percent of its vote. Nothing impressive. And West Virginia voted like Oklahoma—embracing the incompetent Republican Mitt Romney, beyond sanity, because of collective racism against Obama.)

Oklahoma is a cesspool.

Kentucky is a thing of the past.

Alabama actually has more promise (especially as older whites die off)  than the rest because, if the Democrats amassed a 40-state landslide, and four of the five poll's listed states carried for the losing Republican, it's easier to imagine Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and West Virginia siding with three hardcore GOP states—Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming—while the other three are Alaska, Kansas, and Nebraska. Alabama also has more potential, than the four other poll listees, because of voting companion and neighboring Mississippi. Since their first vote, back in 1820, they've carried differently only once—in 1840. And over the last two elections, Mississippi was less Republican than Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.

[Replicator]

Not sure how anyone could say mathematically anything. I'll have to look at the distance from center in 2012 and 2014 and then I can give a mathematical answer.

[beaver2.0]

West Virginia.

[RINO Tom]

The answer is one of the two that still have a prominent elected Democrat at all, and I am going to go with the one that has multiple (WV).

[Suburbia]

West Virginia.