2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[Kingpoleon]

If this is also the place for endorsements:
AK: Lisa Murkowski(Republican)
AR: Frank Gilbert(L)
AZ: Ann Kirkpatrick(Democratic)
CA: Loretta Sanchez(D)
CO: Bill Hammons(Unity)
FL: Patrick Murphy(D)
GA: Jim Barksdale(D)
IL: Mark Kirk(R)
IN: Evan Bayh(D)
LA: Unsure between Caroline Fayard(D) and Joseph Cao(R)
KS: Robert Garrard(Libertarian)
MO: Jason Kander(D)
NC: Deborah Ross(D)
NH: Kelly Ayotte(R)
NV: Joe Heck(R)
NY: Alex Merced(L)
OR: Ron Wyden(D)
VT: Scott Milne(R)
WI: Russ Feingold(D)

[Kingpoleon]

Safe R: 11
Likely R: 2(GA, KY)
Lean R: 4(AZ, LA, NC, OH)
Tossup: 6(IL, IN, MO, NV, NH, PA)
Lean D: 1(FL)
Likely D: 1(WI)
Safe D: 9
/34

Safe R: 11
Likely R: 2(GA, KY)
Lean R: 4(AZ, LA, NC, OH)
Tossup: 5(IL, MO, NV, NH, PA)
Lean D: 2(FL, IN)
Likely D: 1(WI)
Safe D: 9
/34

I'll call Tossups if I must: IL: Kirk, MO: Kander, NV: Heck, NH: Ayotte, PA: McGinty

That's D+1 in tossups. D+3 is the projected final result there. That gives us a 51-49 R Senate.

[Gass3268]

Moving Missouri to Toss Up, taking Colorado off the list.

Chances of flipping:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Indiana
4. New Hampshire
5. Pennsylvania
6. Florida
7. North Carolina
------------------------
8. Ohio
9. Arizona
10. Missouri
11. Nevada
12. Iowa
13. Louisiana
14. Georgia

[windjammer]

Moving Missouri to Toss Up

Chances of flipping:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Indiana
4. New Hampshire
5. Pennsylvania
6. Florida
7. North Carolina
------------------------
8. Ohio
9. Arizona
10. Missouri
11. Nevada
12. Iowa
13. Louisiana
14. Georgia
15. Colorado

May I ask why?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Changes are in my signature (obviously I can't distinguish between lean and strong lean on the prediction maps, too lazy to use the EVC atm). Never thought McGinty would be this competitive.

[Gass3268]

May I ask why?

If the bottom drops out and we get a wave, which I'm thinking more and more will happen, Missouri is probably the last state that could flip in that situation. Also is it is much more likely to flip than Nevada.

[Heisenberg]

>60%: Safe
>40%: Likely
>30%: Lean
>20%: Tilt
Green: Toss-up

[heatcharger]

>60%: Safe
>40%: Likely
>30%: Lean
Green: Toss-up

51 D
47 R

Love how shocked some of you guys are that Toomey isn't invincible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If GA is a special, Dems might need it to cross to 50 mark so that VA special doesn't boad for them for control. Otherwise, Dems will win IL, WI and NH while winning PA, OH, FL or IN will be the tipping point race.

[ElectionsGuy]

GA: Safe R --> Likely R
NH: Toss-Up --> Lean D

Still waiting on Indiana polling, if Indiana confirms a large Bayh lead, the Senate is looking like a near lock for Democrats.

[Orser67]

[Mehmentum]

IA: Likely R -> Safe R.  It looks like there isn't going to be a landslide in Iowa in the presidential race, so it doesn't look like Grassley is in serious danger.

OH: Tossup -> Lean R. Strickland's blowing it.

IN: Tossup -> Lean D.  Bayh looks like he's in a very strong position.  Unfortunately, we don't have any public polling of the race.

NH: Lean D -> Likely D.  Hassan is polling very well, and Trump is getting killed.  Ayotte is looking like a goner.

CO: Likely D -> Safe D.  Like NH, but moreso.

[Xing]

CO: Likely D -> Safe D
GA: Safe R > Likely R (out of an abundance of caution)
IN: Toss-Up -> Lean D
NH: Toss-UP - > Lean D
OH: Toss-Up -> Lean R

[Gass3268]

May I ask why?

If the bottom drops out and we get a wave, which I'm thinking more and more will happen, Missouri is probably the last state that could flip in that situation. Also is it is much more likely to flip than Nevada.

Should also note that I am very close to moving Ohio to Lean R, one like one more poll to confirm it.

[ElectionsGuy]

CO: Likely D --> Safe D
IN: Toss-Up --> Lean D

Senate tipping point now at 'Lean D'.

[ElectionsGuy]

IN: Toss-Up --> Lean D

Senate tipping point now at 'Lean D'.

Reasonable map but NV is definitely lean D, and NC should be tossup.

'Definitely' Lean D? The presidential race in Nevada is closer than expected and all the polls from Nevada either have a tie race or Heck up 1 or 2, that's well within the margin of error so I don't feel comfortable with any lean, not to mention Heck is a strong candidate. With NC, only the NBC/WSJ had Ross up 2 and that was an outlier, the fundamentals of the race (NC's small political lean towards R's, his anonymous generic R reputation) point towards him.

[Flake]

If there was an election held today:

[Gass3268]

Moving Ohio to Lean R

Chances of flipping:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Indiana
4. New Hampshire
5. Pennsylvania
6. North Carolina
7. Florida
------------------------
8. Arizona
9. Missouri
10. Ohio
11. Nevada
12. Iowa
13. Louisiana
14. Georgia

[ElectionsGuy]

Ohio: Toss-Up --> Lean R
Arizona: Toss-Up --> Lean R

9/1/16 Update

Pennsylvania: Toss-Up --> Lean D

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida: Toss-Up --> Lean R

Rubio is leading in every poll, even if its pretty close, and sometimes outside margin of error. I actually should've done this a week or two ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For once I agree on the ratings. Kirkpatrick made a run. But, Cortez-Masto will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pat Leahy Prez Pro Temp

[smoltchanov]

Well, of late an initiative belongs to Republicans. Besides Wisconsin i am not sure which Republican seats Democrats will flip. Even Illinois. Yes, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire are all possible, but it's equally possible they will stay Republican. Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida are slowly slipping from Democrats. And not even sure about Nevada - Clinton only narrowly leads Trump there and Heck is much better candidate then Trump.