Worst-run presidential campaign

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I believe Gore was about 20 points behind during Clinton's impeachment and in the immediate aftermath. These same polls, of course, were showing a big lead for Democrats in the generic congressional ballot. People wanted change both ways but as it got closer to election day and the country was doing well, they were having second thoughts...
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I agree bobloblaw that it's more interesting to consider the best losing campaigns and the worst winning ones. You're right, too, about Romney 2012...considering the 47% remark and the boost Hurricane Sandy gave Obama, he didn't lose that badly. Hell, he broke two records among losing presidential candidates: highest ever percentage of white vote and most number of counties.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

To those saying Carter '76 was the worst-run winning campaign, don't you think his going from 20 points ahead to just 2 points had more to do with Ford perhaps running a good losing campaign and other factors beyond his control (improving economy, GOP-friendly electorate)?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

1976 Carter: ironically despite this being a winning candidacy Carter was up like 30 points on Ford the summer before the election. Ford closed the gap to 2 points on election day. Many pundits have concluded a few more days campaigning and moderate Ford would likely have won this one.

I was in a poli sci course that semester and the course was almost entirely about that election. The data we saw suggested that Ford peaked the weekend before the election, so had it been held on Sunday instead of Tuesday he might have been retained in office. We also astonished the professor by predicting that the election would be one of the closest of the century, which it was.

I'm inclined to think the race was going to tighten no matter what because there too many things in the incumbent's favor, so I'm hesitant to say Carter '76 was the worst winning campaign.

Wildcard choice for worst winning campaign: Clinton '96. He had peace, prosperity, Democrats had only held the WH for one term, had a washed-up, inept campaigner for an opponent, had a GOP Congress to rail against...and yet still won only by single digits and couldn't crack 50% of the vote. I know there were questions about his character, but were they any worse than questions about Nixon's character when he won in '72? I guess also we could see the beginnings of regional polarization in this election..

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

1976 Carter: ironically despite this being a winning candidacy Carter was up like 30 points on Ford the summer before the election. Ford closed the gap to 2 points on election day. Many pundits have concluded a few more days campaigning and moderate Ford would likely have won this one.

I was in a poli sci course that semester and the course was almost entirely about that election. The data we saw suggested that Ford peaked the weekend before the election, so had it been held on Sunday instead of Tuesday he might have been retained in office. We also astonished the professor by predicting that the election would be one of the closest of the century, which it was.

I'm inclined to think the race was going to tighten no matter what because there too many things in the incumbent's favor, so I'm hesitant to say Carter '76 was the worst winning campaign.

Wildcard choice for worst winning campaign: Clinton '96. He had peace, prosperity, Democrats had only held the WH for one term, had a washed-up, inept campaigner for an opponent, had a GOP Congress to rail against...and yet still won only by single digits and couldn't crack 50% of the vote. I know there were questions about his character, but were they any worse than questions about Nixon's character when he won in '72? I guess also we could see the beginnings of regional polarization in this election..

There was also the Ross Perot factor possibly keeping Clinton 50%.

Perot could be the reason Clinton didn't get 50%, but not the reason why his margin was only single digits.