FL-PPP: 2018. Nelson leads Scott by 4.
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  FL-PPP: 2018. Nelson leads Scott by 4.
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Author Topic: FL-PPP: 2018. Nelson leads Scott by 4.  (Read 5337 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: March 26, 2015, 11:35:49 AM »

Sen. Nelson (D) 47%
Gov. Scott (R) 43%

Nelson job approval at 43/31.
Scott job approval at 42/46.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32615.pdf
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2015, 11:40:22 AM »
« Edited: March 26, 2015, 11:46:35 AM by Maxwell »

yeah, Rick Scott can win this. He started behind by double digits when he ran against Crist, look how that turned out!
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2015, 12:14:36 PM »

The amazing BILL NELSON is leading RICK SCOTT by 4? LOL! This means Republicans could really win this seat if they nominated a serious candidate. If 2018 is another GOP wave, he will go down.
Yep. Say hello to Sen. Bondi or Sen. Atwater.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2015, 12:28:39 PM »

I'll never understand why Floridians keep electing Rick Scott to public office, but to each their own I suppose.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2015, 01:02:36 PM »

It's more the Florida Democrats are deeply incompetent, but Florida Republicans do have a very strong bench.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2015, 01:03:18 PM »

I wouldn't put too much weight into this. They are polling a race four years out, after all.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2015, 01:05:31 PM »

I wouldn't put too much weight into this. They are polling a race four years out, after all.

I agree.
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windjammer
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2015, 01:10:36 PM »

I wouldn't put too much weight into this. They are polling a race four years out, after all.

Yeah, but considering how unpopular Scott and how (mildly) popular Nelson is, this suggests really bad news for Nelson. I've never understood why he always outperforms the GOP Presidential candidates (2000/2012) and is such a great fit for FL...
Scott's job approval is 42/46. I would't say he's deeply unpopular.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2015, 01:33:28 PM »

I'll never understand why Floridians keep electing Rick Scott to public office, but to each their own I suppose.

It amazes me how competent the FL GOP is. The party can really be proud of itself, unlike the VA or IN GOP. FL really is a swing state only in Presidential Election years. It is a (light) red state in midterm elections. Anyway, in order to be successful in FL, you need much of this: $$$. And both Murphy and Scott have it en masse, otherwise they wouldn't have won their elections.

Another thing I am surprised at is the Hispanic vote. Romney had an absolutely terrible performance among this voting group (lost it by 21 points). However, in all the recent polls, Hispanic voters are either leaning towards the Republican candidate (Rubio/Bondi) or slightly leaning towards the Democrat (Clinton/Murphy against Atwater) or tied (Atwater/Nelson vs. Scott lol) but it's nowhere near the blowout that Romney faced. I thought Hispanics are trending hard Dem, but this poll may be evidence that the opposite is true. It can't just be a sampling error because many polls (not just PPP) show this. Was Romney just such a terrible fit for Hispanics?

Well, Romney did worse than Generic R among hispanics because of his self-deportation comments and his far-right pandering during the primary. I believe the 2014 National Hispanic Vote was ~36% GOP, 9% better than what Romney got. Some of that is from the wave, but some of that is simple absence of self-deportation comments and the like.

And the fact remains that as long as the GOP matches the Romney white vote performance and picks up a good 4-5% or so from hispanics, they probably get florida back in presidential elections.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2015, 04:22:27 PM »

Considering Nelson would've beaten The Criminal even in 2010 or 2014, I'm not too worried. The real trouble would be Nelson facing a non criminal candidate.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2015, 04:48:48 PM »

Let's be clear that the poll says that Nelson is leading by 4, not Scott, let's be real. I wouldn't really bet big money on Scott being a guaranteed winner, he barely won in midterm elections.
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Vega
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2015, 05:03:22 PM »

Considering Nelson would've beaten The Criminal even in 2010 or 2014, I'm not too worried. The real trouble would be Nelson facing a non criminal candidate.

Why are you so obsessed with him being a "criminal"?

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http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/dem-candidate-murphy-drunken-disorderly-incident-a/nPXTH/

Does that make Murphy a criminal too? Tongue Democrats made a big deal out of it back in 2000 with G.W.Bush, will they apply the same standards to Murphy?

Overseeing the largest Medicare fraud in history is more serious then being drunk and a little rowdy near a night club when you're 19.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2015, 05:18:50 PM »

Considering Nelson would've beaten The Criminal even in 2010 or 2014, I'm not too worried. The real trouble would be Nelson facing a non criminal candidate.

Why are you so obsessed with him being a "criminal"? 

Because he is.

http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2014/mar/03/florida-democratic-party/rick-scott-rick-scott-oversaw-largest-medicare-fra/
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2015, 07:12:47 PM »

Good; hopefully PPP can help prod Scott into running.
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Donerail
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« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2015, 07:15:56 PM »

Another thing I am surprised at is the Hispanic vote. Romney had an absolutely terrible performance among this voting group (lost it by 21 points). However, in all the recent polls, Hispanic voters are either leaning towards the Republican candidate (Rubio/Bondi) or slightly leaning towards the Democrat (Clinton/Murphy against Atwater) or tied (Atwater/Nelson vs. Scott lol) but it's nowhere near the blowout that Romney faced. I thought Hispanics are trending hard Dem, but this poll may be evidence that the opposite is true. It can't just be a sampling error because many polls (not just PPP) show this. Was Romney just such a terrible fit for Hispanics?

It's almost as if there might be some factor that causes Florida Hispanics to vote more Republican than Hispanics at a national level. Wonder what that could be...



Treating 'Hispanics' as a single unified group and ignoring the vast political differences between, say,  Puerto Ricans and Venezuelans is an poor method of analysis.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2015, 08:46:24 PM »

Yep, one poll four years out clearly shows that Nelson is toast... even though he's (ahem) ahead. If Republicans nominate a non-joke candidate, Nelson won't be completely safe, but I'd still say he's favored. Winning by 13 percent in an inelastic state like Florida is fairly impressive, even if his opponent was weak.
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Holmes
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« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2015, 08:56:03 PM »

This election is in three and a half years... jfc.
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Donerail
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« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2015, 10:43:27 PM »

Another thing I am surprised at is the Hispanic vote. Romney had an absolutely terrible performance among this voting group (lost it by 21 points). However, in all the recent polls, Hispanic voters are either leaning towards the Republican candidate (Rubio/Bondi) or slightly leaning towards the Democrat (Clinton/Murphy against Atwater) or tied (Atwater/Nelson vs. Scott lol) but it's nowhere near the blowout that Romney faced. I thought Hispanics are trending hard Dem, but this poll may be evidence that the opposite is true. It can't just be a sampling error because many polls (not just PPP) show this. Was Romney just such a terrible fit for Hispanics?

It's almost as if there might be some factor that causes Florida Hispanics to vote more Republican than Hispanics at a national level. Wonder what that could be...



Treating 'Hispanics' as a single unified group and ignoring the vast political differences between, say,  Puerto Ricans and Venezuelans is an poor method of analysis.

I know that, but Obama won Hispanics in Florida 60-39. In this poll, Rick Scott is winning them by three points. Does that mean Cuban Hispanics just didn't show up to vote in 2012? A 23-point drop can't just be explained by Romney's stupid comments...

Cubans typically vote at a rate above other Hispanic groups and so will be significantly overrepresented (relative to, say, Puerto Ricans) in a midterm.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2015, 11:58:22 PM »

Yep, one poll four years out clearly shows that Nelson is toast... even though he's (ahem) ahead. If Republicans nominate a non-joke candidate, Nelson won't be completely   safe, but I'd still say he's favored. Winning by 13 percent in an inelastic state like Florida is fairly impressive, even if his opponent was weak.

This poll is probably skewed towards the GOP, but leading Rick Scott of all people by 4 points does not suggest that you're invulnerable or favored against a serious candidate like Atwater - especially considering that Nelson never ran in a year that was unfavorable to Democrats. 2018 could be his first real battle.

I just said that he wouldn't be invulnerable, but even so, assuming that he'd be vulnerable to even a decent Republican is quite an assumption to make nearly four years out, based on just one poll. Also, I'm aware he won in a favorable atmosphere, but winning by 13 in an inelastic state that tilts Republican is still no easy feat.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: March 27, 2015, 04:52:52 AM »
« Edited: March 27, 2015, 04:55:58 AM by OC »

There is a difference between these 5 Romney state Dems as oppose to the 2014 red state Dems. These states are moderately conservative, as opposed to the 2014 crowd, thet were conservative


And these Dems arent political newcomers and have been in tough races, like 2006, Nelson v Katherine Harris.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: March 27, 2015, 03:15:43 PM »

Yep, one poll four years out clearly shows that Nelson is toast... even though he's (ahem) ahead. If Republicans nominate a non-joke candidate, Nelson won't be completely   safe, but I'd still say he's favored. Winning by 13 percent in an inelastic state like Florida is fairly impressive, even if his opponent was weak.

This poll is probably skewed towards the GOP, but leading Rick Scott of all people by 4 points does not suggest that you're invulnerable or favored against a serious candidate like Atwater - especially considering that Nelson never ran in a year that was unfavorable to Democrats. 2018 could be his first real battle.

I just said that he wouldn't be invulnerable, but even so, assuming that he'd be vulnerable to even a decent Republican is quite an assumption to make nearly four years out, based on just one poll. Also, I'm aware he won in a favorable atmosphere, but winning by 13 in an inelastic state that tilts Republican is still no easy feat.

Though to be fair, Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV was a joke.
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