MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016

[Ebsy]

Democrats are in really good shape in Missouri and Kentucky though.

[Ebsy]

I find a helpful guide is that if a party is thinking of running a minority leader from one of the state chambers, all hope is lost. Kansas in 2014 might have been a notable exception, but still.

[Ebsy]

Democrats are going to hold onto the governorship in Missouri.

[Ebsy]

I agree that WV is gone unless Manchin runs, and MO is probably Tilt or Lean R at this point. I'd say MT is Lean D, though, and NC is a toss-up.

Why would Missouri be lean R? The GOP's top candidate, Tom Schweich, just killed himself and the other top candidate, Catherine Hanaway, has been pretty thoroughly tied to several vicious ads against him. Also, the state Republican Party Chair, John Hancock, has been quoted by multiple GOP donors and operatives as making deragatory anti-Semetic comments about Tom Schweich. The only poll I have seen has Koster leading Hanaway by 6 points(granted, lots of undecideds), but there is no way she is gaining any popularity after Tom Schweich's death.

[Ebsy]

MO is lean GOP, because of presidential race. NC is a tossup, because of battleground nature of state.

My map perfectly fits how I think the presidential race will gp. I have no sympathy for GOV Bullock since he made the Joe Walsh appointment, cost Dems a seat in 2014 senate.

As for WVa, it assumes Manchin runs, which I am hoping.

So you don't think anything that has happened in the past month or two has had any impact on the Missouri gubernatorial race that was a toss up at best before? That's really rather ridiculous. Elections don't happen in vacuums, and the Missouri Democratic party has shown a remarkable capability to elect statewide candidates in recent years.s