MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:24:04 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016  (Read 8783 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 24, 2015, 11:12:38 AM »

44-44 Bullock/Zinke
46-38 Bullock/Fox

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2015, 11:25:57 AM »

Fox isn't running, Zinke will probably wait for 2018 and challenge Tester instead.
Logged
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,093
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2015, 12:22:24 PM »

Was he ever?
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2015, 01:13:52 PM »

Zinke is a paper tiger. I guarantee it in a race that will get closer to national attention.
Logged
Prince of Salem
JoMCaR
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,639
Peru


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2015, 01:21:46 PM »

Logged
Zioneer
PioneerProgress
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,451
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2015, 01:26:10 PM »

Bullock is one of those guys who are never safe, yet continually manage to win.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2015, 02:00:14 PM »

Unless there's a scandal, this race will never move farther to the left that lean D and farther to the right than tossup.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2015, 04:41:20 PM »

Great Gov, who mistaken appointed Walsh as Senator. But at end he will narrowly win.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2015, 08:55:00 PM »

Bullock definitely isn't safe, but I daresay he's at least slightly favored. I wish we had more to go by than just a Gravis poll, but oh well.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2015, 09:25:56 PM »

Zinke is a paper tiger. I guarantee it in a race that will get closer to national attention.

Agreed
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2015, 11:14:10 PM »
« Edited: March 24, 2015, 11:15:41 PM by OC »

Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2015, 11:51:33 PM »

Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.

WV is gone.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2015, 12:05:52 AM »

Democrats are in really good shape in Missouri and Kentucky though.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2015, 01:47:25 AM »

Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.

WV is gone.

Unless Manchin runs, this.

If Manchin declines, then the only question is which republican wins the party nod, the Dem candidate has no chance.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2015, 01:52:31 AM »

I find a helpful guide is that if a party is thinking of running a minority leader from one of the state chambers, all hope is lost. Kansas in 2014 might have been a notable exception, but still.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,463
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 25, 2015, 09:08:55 PM »

Never though he was, but I think he'll narrowly win reelection in the end.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2015, 02:22:39 PM »

Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.

WV is gone.

Unless Manchin runs, this.

If Manchin declines, then the only question is which republican wins the party nod, the Dem candidate has no chance.




GOP Govs

Mnt: Gov Bullock loses due to Joe Walsh debacle INC defeated GOP pickup
IN: Gov Pence reelected
ND: Gov Darlyple reelected
UT: Gov Herbert reelected
MO: GOP pickup
MS: Gov Bryant reelected
LA: Gov Vitter elected

Dem govs

KY: Gov Conway def Cromer
WA: Gov Inslee reelected
WVA: Kessler or Manchin elected
NC: Roy Cooper def Gov McCrory   INC def Dem pickup
NH: Hassen or Kuster is elected gov or reelected
VT: Gov Shumlin reelected
DeL: Dem gov
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2015, 02:26:39 PM »

I'm sorry, but there is really no way that the dems hold WV Gov. without Manchin running. Republicans aren't going to nominate a joke - it will either be Morrisey or McKinley getting the GOP nod.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2015, 02:27:16 PM »

Democrats are going to hold onto the governorship in Missouri.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2015, 03:00:57 PM »

Democrats are going to hold onto the governorship in Missouri.

This is quite plausible, but it's far from a certainty.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2015, 08:17:14 PM »

Dems will net lose 1 gov in a combo of Mnt, MO and KY. MNY and MO are rype for pickings.

MNY? Use understandable abbreviations, please.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2015, 08:19:22 PM »

Dems will net lose 1 gov in a combo of Mnt, MO and KY. MNT and MO are rype for pickings.

MNT? Use understandable abbreviations, please.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: March 27, 2015, 12:04:51 AM »

I agree that WV is gone unless Manchin runs, and MO is probably Tilt or Lean R at this point. I'd say MT is Lean D, though, and NC is a toss-up.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: March 27, 2015, 01:32:16 AM »
« Edited: March 27, 2015, 01:36:09 AM by Ebsy »

I agree that WV is gone unless Manchin runs, and MO is probably Tilt or Lean R at this point. I'd say MT is Lean D, though, and NC is a toss-up.
Why would Missouri be lean R? The GOP's top candidate, Tom Schweich, just killed himself and the other top candidate, Catherine Hanaway, has been pretty thoroughly tied to several vicious ads against him. Also, the state Republican Party Chair, John Hancock, has been quoted by multiple GOP donors and operatives as making deragatory anti-Semetic comments about Tom Schweich. The only poll I have seen has Koster leading Hanaway by 6 points(granted, lots of undecideds), but there is no way she is gaining any popularity after Tom Schweich's death.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: March 27, 2015, 02:59:45 AM »

MO is lean GOP, because of presidential race. NC is a tossup, because of battleground nature of state.

My map perfectly fits how I think the presidential race will gp. I have no sympathy for GOV Bullock since he made the Joe Walsh appointment, cost Dems a seat in 2014 senate.

As for WVa, it assumes Manchin runs, which I am hoping.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 14 queries.