2016 Election Game: Campaign Thread

[PPT Spiral]

It’s official: the 2016 presidential election is well underway. While President Barack Obama still has more than a year left to govern the nation, his approvals remain stuck in the mid- to low-40s and his agenda has mostly been stalled by the Republican-controlled Congress. Although the economy has progressively become stronger compared to the beginning of Obama’s tenure, foreign policy troubles coupled with his perception as a lame duck has diminished his clout in Washington, and the focus has shifted to the candidates running to replace him.

Unlike what many observers first believed leading up to the primaries, there would be fierce competition in both parties. For years it was assumed that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would make another run after falling just short of the Democratic nomination in 2008. While many in the party were indeed ready for Hillary, a number of public missteps and internal feuds led to defections from the Clinton camp and a notable drop in the polls over the course of months. Sensing a window of opportunity, more credible opponents decided to jump in and potentially usurp the frontrunner, even including a past nominee. Rather than a coronation, Clinton would experience a primary more similar to 2008 with a crowded field nobody had imagined would take shape.

The Republicans would likewise have plenty of candidates to choose from as the primaries inch closer. After nearly two dozen potential candidates had trial balloons for a campaign, the field would narrow with the exits of Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, and others earlier in the year. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush is presumed to be the man to beat as he has the backing of most major donors and a support network built by two past presidents in his family. However, his vulnerabilities leave him open to being usurped by somebody else with enough hard work.

Who will win their party's nomination and, with enough determination, become the 45th President of the United States? Only time will tell. The campaign begins now!

National (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 32%
John Kerry - 17%
Bernie Sanders - 8%
Jerry Brown - 7%
Sherrod Brown - 5%
Brian Schweitzer - 4%
Joaquín Castro - 3%
Tammy Baldwin - 3%
Joe Manchin - 3%
William McRaven - 2%
Luis Gutiérrez - 1%
Undecided - 12%

Iowa (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 25%
John Kerry - 14%
Sherrod Brown - 9%
Bernie Sanders - 7%
Jerry Brown - 7%
Brian Schweitzer - 6%
Tammy Baldwin - 5%
Joe Manchin - 5%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
Luis Gutiérrez - 3%
William McRaven - 2%
Undeicded - 12%

New Hampshire (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 32%
John Kerry - 20%
Bernie Sanders - 11%
Jerry Brown - 8%
Brian Schweitzer - 5%
Sherrod Brown - 4%
Tammy Baldwin - 3%
William McRaven - 3%
Joaquín Castro - 2%
Joe Manchin - 1%
Luis Gutiérrez - 1%
Undecided - 10%

National (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 20%
Scott Walker - 16%
Rand Paul - 12%
Ted Cruz - 10%
Donald Trump - 7%
Dan Quayle - 6%
Lindsey Graham - 5%
Susana Martinez - 5%
John Kasich - 4%
Undecided - 15%

Iowa (Republicans)
Scott Walker - 19%
Rand Paul - 15%
Jeb Bush - 14%
Ted Cruz - 13%
Dan Quayle - 8%
John Kasich - 7%
Donald Trump - 5%
Susana Martinez - 4%
Lindsey Graham - 2%
Undecided - 13%

New Hampshire (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 22%
Rand Paul - 15%
Scott Walker - 14%
Donald Trump -10%
Ted Cruz - 8%
Dan Quayle - 6%
Lindsey Graham - 5%
Susana Martinez - 5%
John Kasich - 3%
Undecided - 12%


This turn will last from October 1-7. You have the next 48 hours to post your schedules. Good luck, everyone!

[PPT Spiral]

Yep, these games can get dirty.

Earlier I heard from CapoteMonster that he is unable to play and that he will drop out as Schweitzer, so he'll be out following the next update. I wish him the best. I also have noted all of your requests and I will get to them soon.

Excellent start, by the way! A lot of these posts are just what I want to see.

[PPT Spiral]

Are we not using the 2016 primary calendar?

Both parties are following the 2012 Republican calendar since it's easier that way.

[PPT Spiral]

Are we not using the 2016 primary calendar?

Both parties are following the 2012 Republican calendar since it's easier that way.

So this round ends today?

Yep.

[PPT Spiral]

It has ended. I'm currently working on the update and it should be out by tonight.

[PPT Spiral]

Let the Battle Begin!/Cruzmentum?

With the first primaries of the nation only a couple of months away, the campaign is slowly but surely heating up. With that, interesting dynamics are playing out. The dominant but weakened Hillary Clinton has not-so-subtly jabbed her fellow Democratic opponents this past week, particularly targeting 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry as unelectable and Senator Joe Manchin as anti-environment. Manchin has forcefully responded back to Clinton, though Kerry has remained silent on the matter. Every Democrat whose name is not Hillary Clinton is setting themselves up to be the anti-Clinton candidate by hopefully winning Iowa or New Hampshire. Among the candidates: The eclectic and experienced Jerry Brown showed off his quirky side again through a short memorable TV ad and is running an active campaign; democratic socialist gadfly Bernie Sanders is running to bring "a voice for the voiceless"; and Tammy Baldwin has set aside her sexuality in a notable interview and is running on issues important to the working class. Though Brian Schweitzer ended his bid earlier in the week, many Democrats still remain in the race.

Things would be a little slower over on the Republican side this week, though some noteworthy developments still came about. A noticeable tick has been seen in polls nationwide and across the early primary states for Ted Cruz, the bombastic Texas senator close to the Tea Party. Nationally, Cruz has surpassed Rand Paul for third place, and he is now virtually tied with Scott Walker in Iowa. Some partly attribute the rise to a recently released TV ad described as "powerful" and "one of the most effective this year." While it remains to be seen if this bump will stick, Cruz's ground game in Iowa is among the best in the field. Aside from Cruz, Jeb Bush is meeting voters and taking questions, Dan Quayle is reintroducing himself to the Republican electorate, Lindsey Graham gets an endorsement from 2008 nominee and close friend John McCain, and Donald Trump is polling surprisingly well in New Hampshire.


Other headlines:

Politico: TPP Passes Despite Opposition from Left and Right

New York Times: Former Vice President Walter Mondale Dies at 87

BBC: Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy Announces 2017 Comeback




National (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 31%
John Kerry - 16%
Jerry Brown - 9%
Bernie Sanders - 9%
Tammy Baldwin - 5%
Joe Manchin - 5%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
Sherrod Brown - 3%
Luis Gutiérrez - 2%
William McRaven - 2%
Undecided - 14%

Iowa (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 25%
John Kerry - 12%
Bernie Sanders - 10%
Jerry Brown - 9%
Tammy Baldwin - 8%
Joe Manchin - 7%
Sherrod Brown - 6%
Luis Gutiérrez - 5%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
William McRaven - 1%
Undecided - 13%

New Hampshire (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 30%
John Kerry - 19%
Bernie Sanders - 12%
Jerry Brown - 10%
Tammy Baldwin - 4%
William McRaven - 4%
Sherrod Brown - 3%
Joaquín Castro - 3%
Luis Gutiérrez - 2%
Joe Manchin - 2%
Undecided - 11%

South Carolina (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 29%
Joe Manchin - 14%
John Kerry - 11%
Bernie Sanders - 7%
Jerry Brown - 6%
Tammy Baldwin - 4%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
Sherrod Brown - 3%
William McRaven - 3%
Luis Gutiérrez - 2%
Undecided - 17%

Who is leading among... (Democrats)
Moderate - Clinton
Somewhat liberal - Clinton
Very liberal - Clinton
Men - Clinton
Women - Clinton

National (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 19%
Scott Walker - 15%
Ted Cruz - 14%
Rand Paul - 11%
Donald Trump - 8%
Dan Quayle - 7%
Lindsey Graham - 6%
Susana Martinez - 5%
John Kasich - 3%
Undecided - 12%

Iowa (Republicans)
Scott Walker - 18%
Ted Cruz - 17%
Jeb Bush - 14%
Rand Paul - 14%
Dan Quayle - 9%
Donald Trump - 6%
John Kasich - 5%
Susana Martinez - 3%
Lindsey Graham - 1%
Undecided - 13%

New Hampshire (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 20%
Rand Paul - 15%
Donald Trump - 12%
Scott Walker - 12%
Ted Cruz - 11%
Susana Martinez - 7%
Lindsey Graham - 6%
Dan Quayle - 5%
John Kasich - 2%
Undecided - 10%

South Carolina (Republicans)
Lindsey Graham - 24%
Jeb Bush - 19%
Ted Cruz - 12%
Scott Walker - 10%
Rand Paul - 9%
Donald Trump - 6%
Dan Quayle - 4%
Susana Martinez - 3%
John Kasich - 1%
Undecided - 12%

Who is leading among... (Republicans)
Moderate - Bush
Somewhat conservative - Bush
Very conservative - Cruz
Men - Walker
Women - Bush

Question: What is the most important issue facing this country today?
Economy/Jobs - 26%
Terrorism/National Security - 18%
Healthcare - 8%
Immigration - 7%
Debt/Deficit - 6%
Crime - 5%
Education - 5%
Income Inequality - 3%
Poverty - 3%
Other - 19%


Endorsements

Hillary Clinton
Janet Reno
Leon Panetta
Bruce Braley
Paul Hodes

Jerry Brown
Barbara Boxer
Dianne Feinstein
Mark Udall
Karen Lewis

Bernie Sanders
Howard Dean
Pat Leahy
Peter Shumlin
Robert Reich

Jeb Bush
Bush Family
Karl Rove

Rand Paul
Michael Steele
Herman Cain
Marilinda Garcia

Susana Martinez
Brian Sandoval
Jon Huntsman
Cory Gardner
Dean Heller

John Kasich
Pete Dominici
John Boehner
Rest of Ohio's Republican congressional representation

Dan Quayle
Mike Pence
Mitch Daniels
Dan Coats
Dick Lugar
Ben Quayle

Lindsey Graham
John McCain


This turn will last from October 8-14. You have the next 48 hours to post your schedules.

[PPT Spiral]

So I just woke up from a nap and I decided after several requests that we'll have a 24-hour extension on this round. Make the most out of it!

[PPT Spiral]

You all seem way too... combative? Tone it down folks.

Sometimes it gets out of hand, but at times it is a good way of making primaries fascinating. When I ran as Gingrich in Spamage's 2008 game and as Daniels in Tmth's 2012 game the primaries were quite negative, and those were perhaps the best I've played so far.

With luck, we'll set new records.

[PPT Spiral]

Keep an Eye Out/Cruz Control

This week featured a flurry of activity from all the candidates. Whether it was Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, they all got bombarded by different campaigns angling to get an advantage in the race. On the Democratic side, frontrunner Hillary Clinton had a mostly quiet week of campaigning while her numerous competitors tried to outshine each other. Jerry Brown and Bernie Sanders were the most outspoken against the recent passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, while William McRaven was the Democrat who most forcefully defended the treaty. Speaking of McRaven, many insiders are beginning to point at him as a sleeper candidate whose moment might soon come, noting that his numbers have slowly but surely only ticked up in the all-important New Hampshire. Another Democrat getting attention is Joe Manchin, the West Virginia populist whose savvy campaign and aggressive media presence has only been helping him in the polls as of late. While John Kerry has been second in most polls for months, it is entirely feasible to see somebody else eclipse him and pose a direct threat to Clinton.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have been seeing some movement across the polls as of late. It turns out that the Ted Cruz surge has been genuine, for Cruz is now in second place nationally and has overcome long-time favorite Scott Walker in Iowa. Cruz so far has not changed his messaging, perhaps believing that what he is doing right now works. Still in first place nationally is Jeb Bush, who has released the most TV ads this week. Among the ads include one touting Bush's pro-life convictions, another on restoring "the twin promises of America," and one last ad attacking Walker for flip-flopping on certain issues. Walker for his part has criticized Bush for going negative and attacked the notion of a Bush dynasty controlling the White House again, although the Bush ads look to have still done some damage in the early states. Donald Trump got some flak in the media for a comment made on the campaign trail about the need to occupy Northern Mexico, although his remarks have not impacted his supporters significantly and some even found them agreeable. Not to be forgotten, Susana Martinez has organized a steady campaign in New Hampshire and Western states, and Dan Quayle's nearly-singular focus on Iowa may ultimately pay off after he was shown to enter double digits for the first time.


Other headlines:

BuzzFeed: Are Other Candidates Copying Ted Cruz's Ads?

The Hill: Elizabeth Warren "not sure" about who to endorse

Politico: George Pataki breaks down, cries about being a failure




National (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 28%
John Kerry - 18%
Jerry Brown - 10%
Bernie Sanders - 9%
Joe Manchin - 7%
Tammy Baldwin - 4%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
Luis Gutiérrez - 3%
William McRaven - 3%
Sherrod Brown - 2%
Undecided - 12%

Iowa (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 24%
John Kerry - 13%
Bernie Sanders - 11%
Jerry Brown - 9%
Joe Manchin - 9%
Tammy Baldwin - 7%
Luis Gutiérrez - 6%
Sherrod Brown - 4%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
William McRaven - 2%
Undecided - 11%

New Hampshire (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 29%
John Kerry - 20%
Bernie Sanders - 13%
Jerry Brown - 9%
William McRaven - 6%
Tammy Baldwin - 3%
Joaquín Castro - 3%
Luis Gutiérrez - 3%
Joe Manchin - 3%
Sherrod Brown - 2%
Undecided - 9%

South Carolina (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 28%
Joe Manchin - 15%
John Kerry - 12%
Jerry Brown - 8%
Bernie Sanders - 6%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
Tammy Baldwin - 3%
Luis Gutiérrez - 3%
William McRaven - 3%
Sherrod Brown - 2%
Undecided - 16%

National (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 21%
Ted Cruz - 17%
Scott Walker - 13%
Rand Paul - 11%
Donald Trump - 8%
Dan Quayle - 6%
Lindsey Graham - 5%
Susana Martinez - 5%
John Kasich - 4%
Undecided - 10%

Iowa (Republicans)
Ted Cruz - 18%
Scott Walker - 16%
Jeb Bush - 15%
Rand Paul - 14%
Dan Quayle - 10%
Donald Trump - 7%
John Kasich - 5%
Susana Martinez - 3%
Lindsey Graham - 1%
Undecided - 11%

New Hampshire (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 21%
Rand Paul - 16%
Donald Trump - 13%
Ted Cruz - 12%
Scott Walker - 10%
Susana Martinez - 8%
Lindsey Graham - 7%
Dan Quayle - 4%
John Kasich - 2%
Undecided - 7%

South Carolina (Republicans)
Lindsey Graham - 23%
Jeb Bush - 21%
Ted Cruz - 13%
Rand Paul - 9%
Scott Walker - 9%
Donald Trump - 7%
Dan Quayle - 4%
Susana Martinez - 3%
John Kasich - 1%
Undecided - 10%

Endorsements

Hillary Clinton
Dave Loebsack
Ann McLane Kuster
Mike Blouin
Kirsten Gillibrand
Gwen Graham

John Kerry
Ed Markey
Jeanne Shaheen
Joe Kennedy III

Jerry Brown
Carol Shea-Porter
George Clooney
California Democratic delegation

Bernie Sanders
Eddie Vedder
Bruce Springsteen
Barbara Lee
Keith Ellison

Joe Manchin
Northeast Iowa congressional members
Steve Beshear
Jay Nixon
Steve Bullock
David Boren
Mary Landrieu

William McRaven
Jim Webb
Mike Beebe
Ed Rendell

Joaquin Castro
Frank Cownie

Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Rick Scott
Condoleezza Rice
Sununu Family

Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
Mike Lee

Scott Walker
Tim Pawlenty
Mark Kirk
Bruce Rauner
Chris Christie
National Right to Work Committee

Rand Paul
Mitch McConnell
Justin Amash
Thomas Massie
Andy Barr
Gary Johnson

Donald Trump
Glenn Beck
Bob Smith

Dan Quayle
Indiana Republican congressional delegation
Mitt Romney
Larry Hogan
Rick Snyder
Charlie Baker

John Kasich
Ed Gillespie
Scott Brown

Lindsey Graham
Nikki Haley
Tim Scott
Mark Sanford
Mick Mulvaney
Trey Gowdy

Susana Martinez
Susan Collins
Jeff Flake
Carly Fiorina


This turn will last from October 15-21. You have the next 48 hours to post your schedules.

[PPT Spiral]

OOC: I'll be out of town for spring break and will be on the road all day tomorrow so I don't think I can get a schedule up and am not sure about the rest of the week.

I'll extend this round by at least one day if that helps.

[PPT Spiral]

Does anyone know what the ruling in King Vs. Burwell was for the purposes of the this game?

It's a 5-4 ruling in favor of upholding the subsidies.

[PPT Spiral]

This round is over and no more posts will be accepted. Due to some things that came up, I will have to post the update tomorrow night rather than later today. Apologies!

[PPT Spiral]

It's Showtime

Another week has passed by and the candidates have been actively seeking support, building their campaigns, and praying for victory in the early primaries. While some like Jerry Brown have been exclusively focusing on one state the past week, others like Hillary Clinton and Scott Walker have been touring multiple states. It is becoming apparent which states the contestants are pinning their hopes on most. On the Democratic side, the goal is to topple Hillary Clinton and surge to the top by winning Iowa and/or New Hampshire, but in a crowded field, the chances of another competitor doing that becomes more difficult at the moment. Things would be more fluid for the Republicans. Jeb Bush is the assumed frontrunner but can lose steam should he not do well in the first few contests. The past couple of weeks have been very good for Ted Cruz. The conservative firebrand appeared above the fray recently by evoking Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment following attacks exchanged by the Bush and Walker camps, further boosting his poll numbers as a result. Bush would cede some support and Walker gained back ground, and lower polling figures like Lindsey Graham have been reaching voters and building their ground game.

This week is notable because primary debates will be held for both the Democrats and Republicans, giving all the candidates a chance to show off and make the case why they should be the next commander-in-chief. Some may rise and others may fall depending on their performance. With the cameras on them, the primary season intensifies.


Headlines of the week:

Politico: McConnell to push tax reform ahead

CNN: Rand and Trump engaged in Twitter war

CBS: Pat Buchanan: "Cruz will be the GOP nominee"


National (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 26%
John Kerry - 18%
Jerry Brown - 11%
Bernie Sanders - 9%
Joe Manchin - 8%
Tammy Baldwin - 6%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
Luis Gutiérrez - 3%
William McRaven - 3%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 11%

Iowa (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 23%
Bernie Sanders - 13%
John Kerry - 11%
Tammy Baldwin - 9%
Jerry Brown - 9%
Joe Manchin - 9%
Luis Gutiérrez - 7%
Joaquín Castro - 5%
William McRaven - 3%
Sherrod Brown - 2%
Undecided - 9%

New Hampshire (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 26%
John Kerry - 20%
Bernie Sanders - 13%
Jerry Brown - 12%
William McRaven - 6%
Tammy Baldwin - 5%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
Joe Manchin - 2%
Luis Gutiérrez - 1%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 10%

South Carolina (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 25%
Joe Manchin - 17%
John Kerry - 11%
Bernie Sanders - 9%
Jerry Brown - 7%
Joaquín Castro - 5%
William McRaven - 4%
Tammy Baldwin - 3%
Luis Gutiérrez - 2%
Sherrod Brown - 2%
Undecided - 15%

National (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 18%
Ted Cruz - 18%
Scott Walker - 14%
Rand Paul - 11%
Donald Trump - 9%
Lindsey Graham - 6%
Susana Martinez - 6%
Dan Quayle - 5%
John Kasich - 3%
Undecided - 10%

Iowa (Republicans)
Ted Cruz - 19%
Scott Walker - 17%
Jeb Bush - 13%
Rand Paul - 13%
Donald Trump - 9%
Dan Quayle - 8%
John Kasich - 4%
Susana Martinez - 3%
Lindsey Graham - 2%
Undecided - 12%

New Hampshire (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 18%
Rand Paul - 14%
Donald Trump - 14%
Ted Cruz - 12%
Scott Walker - 11%
Susana Martinez - 10%
Lindsey Graham - 8%
Dan Quayle - 3%
John Kasich - 2%
Undecided - 8%

South Carolina (Republicans)
Lindsey Graham - 24%
Jeb Bush - 21%
Ted Cruz - 15%
Scott Walker - 10%
Rand Paul - 7%
Donald Trump - 7%
Dan Quayle - 3%
Susana Martinez - 3%
John Kasich - 1%
Undecided - 9%

Colorado (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 19%
Ted Cruz - 17%
Susana Martinez - 16%
Rand Paul - 14%
Scott Walker - 8%
Donald Trump - 5%
Dan Quayle - 3%
Lindsey Graham - 2%
John Kasich - 1%
Undecided - 13%

Nevada (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 18%
Susana Martinez - 16%
Rand Paul - 15%
Ted Cruz - 15%
Donald Trump - 9%
Scott Walker - 8%
Dan Quayle - 4%
Lindsey Graham - 3%
John Kasich - 1%
Undecided - 11%

Maine (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 25%
Rand Paul - 20%
Ted Cruz - 12%
Scott Walker - 9%
Donald Trump - 7%
Dan Quayle - 5%
Susana Martinez - 4%
Lindsey Graham - 3%
John Kasich - 3%
Undecided - 12%


Endorsements

Hillary Clinton
Martha Coakley
Dick Swett
Federico Peña
Michael Gronstal
Pam Iorio
Swati Dandekar

John Kerry
Maggie Hassan
John Lynch
Deval Patrick
Michael Dukakis

Jerry Brown
Russ Feingold
Angus King
Lonnie Randolph
Victoria Middleton

Bernie Sanders
Martin O'Malley
Kate Brown
Maureen Dowd
Jason Carter
MoveOn.org

Tammy Baldwin
Bob Dylan
Rick Nolan
Tim Walz
Betty McCollum

Joe Manchin
Claire McCaskill
Joe Donnelly
Iowa Rural Caucus
owa Farm Bureau
United Mine Workers

Luis Gutierrez
Alan Grayson
Robin Kelly
Tammy Duckworth

William McRaven
Leonard Boswell
John Spratt

Joaquin Castro
Julian Castro
Wendy Davis
Stephen Benjamin
Henry Cisneros
The Latino Coalition

Scott Walker
Paul Ryan
Dick Cheney
Jan Brewer
Thom Tillis

Donald Trump
Jack Dalrymple

John Kasich
Aaron Schock
Larry Pressler
Tom Emmer
John Kline
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

Susana Martinez
Frank Guinta
Mike Coffman
Doug Ducey
Bill Haslam
Cresent Hardy




Republican and Democratic Primary Debates

Candidates from both parties will respond to the questions below. In addition to these questions, you may also engage with your opponents on the stage (highly encouraged--these should be fun) by responding to their statements, posing your own questions, etc.

1. What will you do as president to combat ISIS and other terrorist groups? Do you agree with how the Obama administration has handled this issue?

2. In recent years, relations between the US and Israel have become more strained. What would you do to improve relations and also resolve the dispute between the Israelis and the Palestinians?

3. Voters overwhelmingly favor an increase in the minimum wage, and multiple states have taken action on this. Do you favor increasing the minimum wage, and if so, by how much?

4. Do you agree with President Obama's executive order last year on immigration? What is your plan to reform the country's immigration system?

5. Out of all the other people on this stage, who would you most want to have in your Cabinet, and for what position?


This turn will last from October 22-28. You have the next 96 hours to post your schedules.

[PPT Spiral]

Could we get a 24 hour extension? I've been very busy this weekend.

Yeah, that's fine. This turn will now end on Thursday.

[PPT Spiral]

Just a reminder that everybody has about a day left to get their posts in.

[PPT Spiral]

I've given everybody five days this turn and a lot of you haven't posted anything. That's kind of disappointing and not what I expected, but we'll move on. This next update will definitely be interesting--I hope to have it up by tonight.

[PPT Spiral]

Sorry to hear, Lumine.

After thinking about it, I will give you all by Friday night to get out your schedules. Apologies for any confusions.

[PPT Spiral]

NeverAgain, I have been quite busy and away from the computer most of the time as of late, and this will be especially true over the weekend. To be honest I don't think I can post the next update until Monday, but I want to give everybody some more time until then. However, what I think I can do is perhaps provide some mini-updates by Friday in the form of polls or something similar. I hope you can understand.

[PPT Spiral]

TED CRUZ AND LINDSEY GRAHAM OUT; RAND PAUL SURGES TO TOP

Rand Paul - 23%
Jeb Bush - 18%
Scott Walker - 16%
Donald Trump - 12%
Dan Quayle - 7%
Susana Martinez - 6%
John Kasich - 4%
Undecided - 13%

[PPT Spiral]

Sorry for the wait, guys. It's true that I have been busy and I've had some personal problems as of late which made me less motivated to update this. I'll go back on track now, though, and hopefully this game can continue going strong!

Cruz Exits, Rand Surges, Hillary Stumbles

The past week was shaken up with the withdrawal of Ted Cruz from the race in an unexpected development. Cruz had been surging in the last month and had reached frontrunner status by the time he left the race, having a very good shot of winning Iowa and moving forward with the nomination, but Cruz wanted to take care of his father after he developed cancer. Also leaving the Republican race was Lindsey Graham, citing low poll numbers. With two Republicans out, the dynamics have significantly changed. Cruz endorsed Rand Paul and Paul would get the bulk of Cruz's support, suddenly shooting up to the top of the polls. As the new frontrunner, Paul will be targeted by his opponents more than ever, and whether he can hold up to the scrutiny is yet to be determined.

As for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton has seen her numbers decline after the latest televised debate where her opponents squarely focused on her. (More on that will be said in the debate portion of the update below.) The main beneficiary of the debate was William McRaven, doubling his support after being near the bottom of most polls for months. Clinton continues to be the person to beat in the Democratic field despite having fallen in polls over the months, and with a field as large as this one, it is difficult to have one candidate stand out as her main foe so far. Though John Kerry has been second nationally and had a solid debate performance, some analysts wonder whether he can get voters excited enough to claim the nomination a second time. Only time will tell what will happen.


Polls

National (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 21%
John Kerry - 19%
Jerry Brown - 13%
Joe Manchin - 9%
William McRaven - 8%
Bernie Sanders - 7%
Tammy Baldwin - 5%
Joaquín Castro - 5%
Luis Gutiérrez - 2%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 10%

Iowa (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 18%
Jerry Brown - 13%
John Kerry - 12%
Bernie Sanders - 11%
Joe Manchin - 9%
Tammy Baldwin - 7%
Luis Gutiérrez - 6%
William McRaven - 6%
Joaquín Castro - 5%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 12%

New Hampshire (Democrats)
John Kerry - 22%
Hillary Clinton - 21%
Jerry Brown - 13%
William McRaven - 10%
Bernie Sanders - 11%
Tammy Baldwin - 4%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
Joe Manchin - 3%
Luis Gutiérrez - 1%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 10%

South Carolina (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 21%
Joe Manchin - 18%
John Kerry - 12%
Jerry Brown - 9%
Joaquín Castro - 7%
William McRaven - 7%
Bernie Sanders - 7%
Tammy Baldwin - 2%
Luis Gutiérrez - 2%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 13%

National (Republicans)
Rand Paul - 24%
Jeb Bush - 18%
Scott Walker - 15%
Donald Trump - 11%
Dan Quayle - 9%
Susana Martinez - 5%
John Kasich - 5%
Undecided - 13%

Iowa (Republicans)
Rand Paul - 26%
Scott Walker - 18%
Jeb Bush - 14%
Donald Trump - 11%
Dan Quayle - 11%
John Kasich - 5%
Susana Martinez - 3%
Undecided - 12%

New Hampshire (Republicans)
Rand Paul - 25%
Jeb Bush - 19%
Donald Trump - 15%
Scott Walker - 13%
Susana Martinez - 8%
Dan Quayle - 7%
John Kasich - 3%
Undecided - 10%

South Carolina (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 27%
Rand Paul - 18%
Scott Walker - 14%
Donald Trump - 12%
Dan Quayle - 8%
Susana Martinez - 3%
John Kasich - 2%
Undecided - 16%


Headlines

CBS: Why did so many Democrats skip the debate?

The Hill: Where has Sherrod Brown been?

BBC: ISIS launches offensive on Baghdad


Debate Performances

Baldwin: N/A
J. Brown: B+
S. Brown: N/A
Castro: A-
Clinton: C-
Gutierrez: N/A
Manchin: B
McRaven: A
Kerry: B
Sanders: N/A

All eyes were on Hillary here, and she disappointed in some respects. Clinton raised eyebrows when admitting that she thought President Obama abused his power on the immigration executive order but still approved of it. In addition, her statement on the minimum wage resulted in a memorable exchange between her and John Kerry on math. Jerry Brown had a good night and carved his own niche by advocating non-intervention in the Middle East and heavily criticizing Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu. William McRaven was the big star of the night, though, especially showing his expertise in the realm of foreign policy through detailed answers. McRaven is the one to watch in coming weeks as the campaign develops. Joaquin Castro also did quite well and may eventually have his own breakout moment with luck.

Bush: A-
Kasich: D
Martinez: N/A
Paul: B
Trump: B-
Quayle: A-
Walker: N/A

Observers agreed that Jeb Bush did consistently well over the others, also showing that he is a staunch conservative on most issues as he tries to win over skeptics in the party. However, the surprise of the night was Dan Quayle, the man who was once ridiculed for misspelling the word "potato." Quayle proved to be knowledgeable on the issues and was aggressive in touting his credentials over the other candidates as he posed a question about their accomplishments. Quayle has seen a bump in the polls since then and could very well become one of the frontrunners in the future. Rand Paul had a solid performance and stood out from the others in foreign policy, and Donald Trump took the most extreme stance on immigration and pleased the Tea Party. John Kasich, meanwhile, was universally seen as a dud by giving brief and usually vague answers and not doing much to stand out at all.


Endorsements

John Kerry
Caroline Kennedy
Maria Shriver
Jean Kennedy Smith
Paul Kirk
Mo Cowan

Hillary Clinton
Max Cleland
John Baldacci
Wesley Clark
Adolfo Carrion Jr.
Fernando Ferrer

Jerry Brown
John Hickenlooper
Michael Gronstal
Zephyr Teachout
Chuy Garcia

Dan Quayle
Lisa Murkowski
Elizabeth Dole
Linda Lingle
John Cornyn
Shelley Moore Capito

John Kasich
Cathy McMorris Rodgers
Alex Mooney
Lamar Alexander

Jeb Bush
Florida Republican congressional delegation
American Israel Public Affairs Committee
National Federation of Independent Business


This turn will last from October 29-November 4. You have the next 72 hours to post your schedules.

[PPT Spiral]

Can we get an extra day on this?

Yes, that's fine.

This turn will now end Wednesday night.

[PPT Spiral]

BREAKING NEWS: SCOTT WALKER SHOT AT IOWA RALLY

DEVELOPING...

[PPT Spiral]

No worries--update will come later tonight.

[PPT Spiral]

WALKER DEAD; SHAKES UP ENTIRE RACE

The unexpected happened in the most tragic fashion this past week: While attending a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, Republican candidate Scott Walker was shot three times in the chest by a lone assassin. Walker would die from his wounds the next hour. The assassin was identified as Martin O'Dalley, a self-described radical from Wisconsin who had a vitriolic hatred of Walker over his stance on unions. With Walker dead, the whole race has suddenly shifted to chaos, particularly over on the Republican side. Condolences from across the spectrum flooded in for Walker's family, and campaigning came to a momentary halt. But as the campaign winds up again, time will tell what effect Walker's death will have going forward.

Some other things to note from the week:

-Jeb Bush has been building up his campaign infrastructure in the early primary states. Will it ultimately pay off for him?
-Jerry Brown has been quickly rising in the polls. Will he eclipse John Kerry to be second place?
-Many candidates from both parties have not campaigned at all this past week. Are they truly committed to winning?


Headlines

CNN: With Walker's death, a revival of discussion on gun violence

ABC: Bill Clinton's Rand Paul Halloween costume raises eyebrows

NBC: ISIS grabs control of Baghdad in major victory


Polls

National (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 23%
John Kerry - 17%
Jerry Brown - 15%
Joe Manchin - 10%
William McRaven - 7%
Joaquín Castro - 6%
Bernie Sanders - 6%
Tammy Baldwin - 4%
Luis Gutiérrez - 1%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 10%

Iowa (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 19%
Jerry Brown - 14%
John Kerry - 11%
Joe Manchin - 11%
Bernie Sanders - 9%
Tammy Baldwin - 6%
Joaquín Castro - 6%
Luis Gutiérrez - 5%
William McRaven - 5%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 13%

New Hampshire (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 22%
John Kerry - 20%
Jerry Brown - 15%
Bernie Sanders - 10%
William McRaven - 8%
Joaquín Castro - 5%
Joe Manchin - 4%
Tammy Baldwin - 3%
Luis Gutiérrez - 1%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 11%

South Carolina (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 21%
Joe Manchin - 19%
Jerry Brown - 10%
John Kerry - 10%
Joaquín Castro - 8%
William McRaven - 6%
Bernie Sanders - 6%
Tammy Baldwin - 2%
Luis Gutiérrez - 1%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 16%

Florida (Democrats)
Hillary Clinton - 25%
John Kerry - 17%
Jerry Brown - 13%
Joe Manchin - 9%
Bernie Sanders - 6%
William McRaven - 5%
Joaquín Castro - 4%
Tammy Baldwin - 3%
Luis Gutiérrez - 1%
Sherrod Brown - 1%
Undecided - 16%

National (Republicans)
Rand Paul - 27%
Jeb Bush - 22%
Dan Quayle - 14%
Donald Trump - 12%
Susana Martinez - 5%
John Kasich - 4%
Undecided - 16%

Iowa (Republicans)
Rand Paul - 29%
Jeb Bush - 19%
Dan Quayle - 15%
Donald Trump - 12%
John Kasich - 4%
Susana Martinez - 3%
Undecided - 18%

New Hampshire (Republicans)
Rand Paul - 28%
Jeb Bush - 22%
Donald Trump - 17%
Dan Quayle - 12%
Susana Martinez - 7%
John Kasich - 2%
Undecided - 12%

South Carolina (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 29%
Rand Paul - 21%
Donald Trump - 14%
Dan Quayle - 13%
John Kasich - 2%
Susana Martinez - 2%
Undecided - 19%

Florida (Republicans)
Jeb Bush - 50%
Rand Paul - 16%
Donald Trump - 10%
Dan Quayle - 8%
Susana Martinez - 4%
John Kasich - 1%
Undecided - 11%


Endorsements

Hillary Clinton
Alison Lundergan Grimes
Scott Stringer
Michael Brennan
Bakari Sellers
Brad Hutto

Joaquin Castro
Bill Gluba
Joe Garcia
José Javier Rodríguez
Albio Sires
Bob Buckhorn

Joe Manchin
Iowa Farm Bureau
Fritz Hollings
Heidi Heitkamp
Joe Donnelly
John Breaux

Jeb Bush
Rick Perry
Council on Foreign Relations
National Review
American Legion

Rand Paul
Pat Buchanan
Tom Tancredo
Shenna Bellows
Paul LePage

Donald Trump
Martha McSally
Ron DeSantis
Rich Nugent


This turn will last from November 5-11. You have the next 96 hours to post your schedules.

[PPT Spiral]

OOC: Any chance we could get some debate questions?

I'll set up a debate next round. For now, I'm really tired.