What about her chances of winning Arkansas? It's given that in case of, say, a 9% lead nationwide, Hillary is likely to win FL, NC, and VA. But I think that Georgia is likelier to vote for Hillary. For that Democrats need to step up efforts to register voters in the state, and for all my optimism I doubt they will recruit enough.
I can almost guarantee Arkansas will vote >55% for Trump.
To answer the question, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are the obvious three. I think South Carolina will probably flip just a bit after Georgia does, because of ads overflowing from the media markets in NC and GA alongside South Carolina having a bit more flexibility than Georgia.
Poll
