Will Maryland become the most DEM state in the next presidential elections?

[buritobr]

Do you think Maryland will become the most Democratic state in the next presidential elections?

Maryland has both
1. Large share of minorities in the population (55% of the population is non-hispanic white)
2. Enough population of liberal whites

The share of liberals among whites is bigger in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont. However, the population of these states is too white.

[heatcharger]

I think it will be California or maybe Hawaii. I doubt Maryland will trend more Democratic, in fact I expect it to become less Democratic over the next few decades (but obviously not by much and it wouldn't be enough to make it competitive at the presidential level).

Really?  Do you see the Baltimore area giving out or something?  To me, MD seems to fit well with what we are seeing in VA/NC/GA.

Yup. The DC-Baltimore corridor is actually getting more Democratic, which is a way bigger trend then whatever's happening with angry West Marylanders or in Delmarva.

[Heisenberg]

I think it will be California or maybe Hawaii. I doubt Maryland will trend more Democratic, in fact I expect it to become less Democratic over the next few decades (but obviously not by much and it wouldn't be enough to make it competitive at the presidential level).

How? This year, it will also really hurt Trump that it's VERY pro-establishment. Plus there's many people who sort of depend on big government for their job. With all the factors mentioned above, I think it will go further left in the future.

[Arbitrage1980]

In this election, definitely. I think it will be one of Trump's 3 worst states along with Hawaii and Vermont.  Currently, 538.com gives Trump a 0.2% chance of winning Hawaii and 0.3% chance of winning Maryland.

Couple of reasons:

1. Lot of minorities.  Trump is doing worse with minorities than any GOP nominee in history.  He's polling worse with blacks than even Goldwater 1964.

2. Affluent well-educated whites in DC suburbs of Montgomery County are going to vote for Hillary by YUGE margins, even moreso than they did for Obama.

3. Maryland was Obama's 5th best state.  Given Trump's toxicity to the aforementioned groups, it's totally reasonable to think that it will be one of his 3 worst states.

[Arbitrage1980]

I think it will be California or maybe Hawaii. I doubt Maryland will trend more Democratic, in fact I expect it to become less Democratic over the next few decades (but obviously not by much and it wouldn't be enough to make it competitive at the presidential level).

Really?  Do you see the Baltimore area giving out or something?  To me, MD seems to fit well with what we are seeing in VA/NC/GA.

I think the state is close to maxed out for Democrats. Obviously Trump is a poor fit for many parts of the state and will undeperform generic R in the DC suburbs, but how much more Democratic can places like Prince George's County get? I also think the Baltimore suburbs are pretty swingy.

The Senate race this year will be a perfect bellwether of where the state is headed politically (whether it's closer to 57/43 D or 65/35 D). IMO, VA is now slowly going through the process that MD went through in the 80s and 90s, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Republicans had an easier time winning a gubernatorial race in MD than in VA in the future. But then again, maybe I'm reading too much into the 2013 and 2014 results. We'll see how well the GOP does in VA in 2017.

I still can't believe that Larry Hogan was elected governor in Maryland and enjoys 70% approval ratings.

[Xing]

I expect it to remain one of the bluest states in the country for a while. I'm not sure it will be the most Democratic, but it'll always be up there.

[nclib]

The share of liberals among whites is bigger in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont. However, the population of these states is too white.

Really? Do you have a source? Whites in VT, MA, and RI are more Democratic than whites in MD. Obama didn't even win the white vote in MD.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Hawaii post-Obama is a yuge wildcard though.

I would have thought so, but now the GOP is the nationalist populist party.

[AGA]

The share of liberals among whites is bigger in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont. However, the population of these states is too white.

Really? Do you have a source? Whites in VT, MA, and RI are more Democratic than whites in MD. Obama didn't even win the white vote in MD.

That is what buritobr said.

[nclib]

The share of liberals among whites is bigger in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont. However, the population of these states is too white.

Really? Do you have a source? Whites in VT, MA, and RI are more Democratic than whites in MD. Obama didn't even win the white vote in MD.

That is what buritobr said.

OK. I misread that.

[TrumpCard]

No because of Vermont.  Hawaii too, but after Obama it may move back to where NY and CA are. 

[Figueira]

Hawaii is weird. I don't think we'll ever know how it votes "by default."

[TrumpCard]

Hawaii is weird. I don't think we'll ever know how it votes "by default."

You ever realize how it loves incumbents too?  They voted for Johnson in a landslide even bigger than his national landslide which I know it's always been blue, but still!  Nixon won it the second time, Ford always won it which is impressive for Republicans, they voted for Carter as and incumbent and was almost on center for Reagan, and Bush only lost 54-46 there in 2004.  As for Bush in 1992 and Clinton in 1996 I believe both of them did better the second time there too.