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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2016 election
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Poll
Question: Could Hillary Clinton carry 4 or more of the former Confederate states in 2016?
#1
Yes (because Hillary will win on the strength of minorities just like Obama did)
 
#2
Yes (because Hillary will do better among white voters)
 
#3
No (the region isn't Democratic enough yet)
 
#4
No (the region is practically lost to Democrats )
 
#5
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 48

Author Topic: 2016 election  (Read 1168 times)
Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« on: March 04, 2015, 12:22:23 am »

Considering the South's long-term realignment in favor of the Republicans I was wondering if Hillary Clinton could be a better fit for the South than Obama was.
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Devils30
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2015, 12:55:49 am »

Can win VA FL NC but Georgia is a stretch for now.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2015, 01:13:57 am »

What about her chances of winning Arkansas? It's given that in case of, say, a 9% lead nationwide, Hillary is likely to win FL, NC, and VA.  But I think that Georgia is likelier to vote for Hillary.  For that Democrats need to step up efforts to register voters in the state, and for all my optimism I doubt they will recruit enough.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2015, 12:47:14 pm »

3 is the most likely result, 4 is unlikely.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2015, 02:46:21 pm »

I don't really think she'll be able to compete in Georgia barring a real landslide, but she could grab three.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2015, 03:47:41 pm »

Does MO count as Confederate?
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2015, 11:57:41 pm »

I voted yes because the question was worded too broadly…

yes, she could win 4 states: VA, FL, NC, GA…

but this seems unlikely. 

If she did win I think it would be on the strength of minority voters moreso than broader appeal to whites.
Hmm...too broadly?  I gave you the option to vote 'Other'.
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2015, 05:12:46 pm »

Hillary has a path to 47% in Georgia, it's just that the state is so inelastic that it's probably 2020 or even 2024 before it flips. Once it's a swing state it's not going back solid red.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2016, 05:51:12 pm »

Bump
Lol early me.
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LLR
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2016, 06:18:26 pm »

VA, FL, NC, either GA or SC is easy and likely at this point.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2016, 09:08:58 pm »

What about her chances of winning Arkansas? It's given that in case of, say, a 9% lead nationwide, Hillary is likely to win FL, NC, and VA.  But I think that Georgia is likelier to vote for Hillary.  For that Democrats need to step up efforts to register voters in the state, and for all my optimism I doubt they will recruit enough.
I can almost guarantee Arkansas will vote >55% for Trump.

To answer the question, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are the obvious three. I think South Carolina will probably flip just a bit after Georgia does, because of ads overflowing from the media markets in NC and GA alongside South Carolina having a bit more flexibility than Georgia.
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Figueira
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2016, 04:22:38 pm »

Option 3, but GA is not outside the realm of possibility.
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