Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2015

Critical state of Bihar will have assembly elections in late 2015.  This is critical for BJP because the NDA does not have a majority or even plurality in the Upper House and the only way to change that balance of power is to sweep state assembly elections and then over the next 2 years build up their numbers.  Bihar in 2015 and UP in 2017 are critical to this.

In 2010 BJP-JD(U) won a massive landslide over RJD-LJP and INC which contested separately.  Since then BJP and JD(U) broke up and in LS 2014 it was BJP-LJP-RLSP (RLSP is a JD(U) splinter) winning a landslide victory over RJD-INC-NCP and JD(U)-CPI which contested separately.    This in turn created a massive anti-NDA alliance in Bihar where JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP has come together in its aftermath.  

JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar stepped down last year over the defeat of JD(U)-CPI in LS elections and installed Mahadalit (lowest of the untouchable Dalit castes) Jitan Ram Manjhi as his proxy to draw Dalit votes to JD(U) in 2015 assembly elections.   Manjhi  proceeded to break away from Kumar afterwards to build himself his own political base.   He was getting support from the BJP in his rebellion and he was just removed as CM with Kumar about to take over again.  Manjhi is a famous ship-jumper.  He was in INC, and then went over to JD and then went to RJD and then went over to JD(U).  Now he will most likely join LJP or even form his own party to ally with BJP.

Latest ABP News-Nielsen Snap Poll in the aftermath of this political crisis has

BJP-LJP-RLSP at 41% and JD(U)+RJD+INC+NCP  at 57% which would signal a wipeout for NDA in the 2015 elections if these trend holds.  Of course it is not clear if JD (U)+RJD+INC+NCP can hold together or if Dalit votes might shift to NDA if they see Manjhi's removal as an anti-Dalit act.   JD(U) is mostly trying to present Manjhi's removal as the removal of a traitor and the BJP is trying to present it as an humiliation of a Dalit.  

[jaichind]

2010 Bihar Assembly election results

                                   votes      seats
BJP+JD(U)                   39.1%     206
RJD+LJP                      25.5%      25
INC                               8.4%        4
BSP                               3.2%        0
CPI                                1.7%       1                              
NCP                              1.8%        0
CPI-ML-L                       1.8%        0
JMM                              0.6%        1
Independent               13.2%        6


2014 Bihar LS election results

                                   votes      seats
BJP+LJP+RLSP             39.5%     31
RJD+INC+NCP             30.3%       7
JD(U)+CPI                   17.2%       2
BSP                               2.2%       0
CPI-ML-L                       1.3%       0
AAP                               1.0%       0
Independent                  4.3%       0


2014 saw a large 3 way polarization resulting in a dramatic drop in independent votes.  Assembly elections tend to see greater independent votes.  If BJP+LJP+RLSP won 39.5% at 2014 and could only poll 41% when everyone else is ganging up against it, then it is in trouble.  Since as you can see the anti-BJP camp has a much larger vote potential even at the peak of the Modi wave in 2014.  What the BJP has to count on is disunity within the anti-BJP camp.  BSP seems to want to make a big push in Bihar in 2015.  It is not clear how much of the Dalit vote they can pull.  BJP+LJP+RLSP got a bunch of the Dalit vote in 2014 and risk losing some of it to BSP.  That is why they are trying to project themselves as a sympathizer of Manjhi.   Also if the AAP gets into the act and not join the anti-BJP super-alliance in theory it will cut into the anti-BJP votes but it could also eat in the pro-BJP upper caste vote in urban areas.  AAP has good relations with JD(U) but it might hurt the AAP brand that is is not just another political party if it joins a JD(U) led alliance.

[jaichind]

Now that Manjhi has resigned (and already expelled from the JD(U) it seems), Nitish Kumar of JD(U), with the support of RJD INC CPI and an independent, will take over as CM again this sunday.  His plan is to run later in 2015 on a plank of economic development with utterly failed in 2014 due to the pro- and anti- BJP polarization. 

[jaichind]

Checking the news, Manjhi chose not to go through the confidence vote, facing the inevitable - but without a battle that could have done further damage to the JD(U). And Nitish is calling up both Mamata and SP's Yadavs for his swearing in: to demonstrate the unity of secular forces across India. Could be a lot worse.

Yep,  He was going to lose the vote so he resigned. Even if BJP backed him he would lose since the vast majority of JD(U) was behind Kumar.   BJP of two minds on this.  On the one hand they wanted him to down to glorious defeat so he can then rally the Dalits behind this fallen King.  On the other hand if it went to a vote they would have to go on record backing a JD(U) rebel which would make it look opportunist. 

[jaichind]

BTW, Manjhi claimed that the reason he resigned was not he was going to lose the vote of confidence but that he and his supporters were constantly being harassed with death threats from Nitish Kumar supporters and he wanted to end any chance of violence.     

[jaichind]

Right before the vote of confidence it was the following distribution in Bihar Assembly

JD (U) Manjhi    12
BJP                   87
JD (U) Kumar    99
RJD                   12
INC                    5
Others               6

It was clear that even if BJP voted for Manjhi and the Manjhi faction members were not disqualified for going against the JD(U) whip Manjhi would lose.  After Manjhi broke with Kumar a few weeks ago he has been on a rampage issuing various populist ordinances that benefits Dalits in order to build up his Dalit base.  These schemes include reservation for Scheduled Tribes/Scheduled Castes (tribals and Dalits) contractors in government's work contract system; reservation for poor sections of the upper castes; free electricity to small farmers; 10-fold increase in allowances for Home-Guard jawans; pay increase for policemen and women; 35% reservation for women in government jobs and a committee to give a pay-scale to more than 3 lakh contractual teachers.   Not sure this will be translated into support for his new outfit but will bobby trap the finances of Bihar for the incoming Nitish Kumar regime.

[jaichind]

So, how realistic is it for the AAP to try to break into the Bihar Assembly? Is there any real chance of them campaigning hard here?

My feeling is not much chance to break in.  AAP is mostly a urban phenomenon.  Other than Patna, Bihar is pretty much all rural and one of the least urbanized states of India.    AAP does have enough prestige from its crushing victory in Delhi to make JD(U) accommodate them as a very junior partner in the anti-BJP alliance.  I doubt that is the route AAP wants to take.  The logic of the rise of parties in India is really three phases :  Phase I is to lose, Phase II is to make others lose, Phase III is to win.  I think AAP will be in Phase I in Bihar for a while.  For 2013 Delhi assembly elections the AAP had hoped to jump to Phase II right away but managed to make it into Phase III right way.  Other than TDP in 1983 AP I could not think of a case where this took place where a party which is not a splinter but born from scratch jumped to Phase III right away.  It is very rare.

[jaichind]

Expelled former JD(U) CM Jitan Ram Manjhi formed a political front called Hindustan Awaam Morcha (HAM) (roughly translated is Indian Popular Front in Urdu.)  He seems to be focusing this front as a way to consolidate Dalits and Tribals against Upper Castes.  Not sure if this party will go anyway or which front it will align with.

[jaichind]

There seems to be a cheating scandal in Bihar where hundreds of parents are sending in cheat sheets on entrance exams



100+ parents and 7 policeman are arrested although before this the Bihar government seems to indicate that they are powerless to stop cheating. 700+ students are expelled. 

[jaichind]

In a new twist former JD(U) CM Ram Manjhi which was expelled from JD(U) and removed as CM now claims he is still part of JD(U) even though he has his own HAM outfit.  I guess he is not making headway with possible pre or post alliance talks with BJP for the upcoming elections so he is hedging his bets with HAM possibility come back to JD(U).  It also could be he senses that JD(U)-RJD-INC-CPI does seem him as a threat in cutting into their Dalit vote so he wants to send a signal that he is willing to play ball with them as well. 

[jaichind]

What exactly is happening here? How did the parents get cheat sheets? Why can't they use doors?

Parents along with professional cheating helpers know as the cheating mafia would send in textbooks and other notes into the test center.  The number of parents and cheating mafia vastly outnumber the number of policeman there to guard the test center.  The police mostly are guarding the doors and have been paid by the cheating mafia to look the other way as long as they and the parents are going through windows to send in testing aid material.  

The exam in question is the All India Secondary School Examination also known as Class X exams which are used for admissions into junior colleges or vocational schools that does not have entrance exams.  

This is turning into an fiasco for the Bihar government just in time for CM Nitish Kumar who just retook control of the Bihar government.  Understand of course that this takes place every year, especially in Bihar.  Only difference here is that the cheating is being caught on video.  Until the video went viral and large media pressure was put in the Bihar government, the original Bihar government position was that they will not going to pursue this case since they are powerless to stop this.  Under pressure from media the Bihar government started to arrest members of cheating mafia, parents and police as well as expelling students involved in the cheating caught on video.

[jaichind]

It seems as early as next week the merger plans for JD(U), SP, JD(S), RJD, and INLD will be announced.  This plan has been talked about for months now and I did not expected it to take place given all the personalities involved.  I expected some sort of alliance of these parties until the BJP goes into decline and they will all start going there separate ways again.  Other than RJD and JD(U), there is no conflict at the state level for these parties.  INLD has strength in Harayana and has some pockets of influence in Delhi and Punjab.  Both RJD and JD(U) is strong in Bihar and have pockets of influence in Jharkhand.  SP is strong in UP and have pockets of influence in MP.  JD(S) is based in Karnataka and is part of Left Front in Kerela.  So the real conflict other than who is the leader of this combined party is really between JD(U) and RJD at the grassroots level.  Especially now that BJP seems less scary now after it got crushed in Delhi.  I await for next week to see if this will even take place. If it does and it works at the grassroots level then NDA will be in trouble in the upcoming election in Bihar.

It seems that Mulayam Singh Yadav, leader of SP, will be chairman of this new party.  Like I said, this will merely make it easier for this cluster of political movements coordinate their actions better.  Other than Bihar and Jharkhand there will not be much electoral impact of this union.  

One thing that is interesting is that BJD did not seem to show interest in joining even though BJD is part of the Janata Parivar or family of parties.  One thing that is different is BJD is still riding high as a dominate party of Orissa with INC and BJP splitting the anti-BJD vote, while  JD(U), SP, JD(S), RJD, and INLD are all down on their luck.

[jaichind]

It seems BJP is on a membership drive with the goal of becoming the largest political party in the world.  In theory as of yesterday they reached this goal by getting to 88 million members beating the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) membership of of 87 million members.  The goal the BJP has is to get to 100 million members and it seems they will miss that target when the drive ends in a few days.  They might end up extending that deadline to get to 100 million members.

 The way they got to this number seems fishy.  One can register to become a member of the BJP by calling a cell phone number.  Of course one can register several times by calling from different cell phones and so on.    It seems that the BJP went from a membership of around 7 million to 87 million members in around 150 days.  At this rate they should have no problem getting to 100 million if they can extend the drive deadline.  How meaningful or useful these 100 million "members of BJP" are is yet to be seen.   

Of course it is most likely true that the BJP did overtake INC in terms of total real members.  The INC membership is in theory 35 million although that is also inflated by a couple of order of magnitudes.  And the recent INC membership drive is not as successful even if their methods are less fluffy.  I do not want to take away from the real gains the BJP has made in terms of real members but going around talking about 100 million members I think only will make them lose credibility.   

[jaichind]

It is official.    SP, JD(U), RJD, JD(S), INLD, and the almost non-existent SJP will merge into Samajwadi Janata Dal (SJD) with current SP leader Mulayam as the president of the new party.  The new party will use "the cycle" symbol which SP uses today.   This merger is mostly to try to become THE anti-BJP party in Bihar and UP.  It might work in Bihar if the JD(U) and RJD cadres who detest each other on the ground can work together but will not make much of a difference in UP.  In Jharkhand this will make a marginal difference but there it is still the JMM that is emerging as the anti-BJP party while INC and JVM are in recovery mode.  In Kerela this does create problems. JD(U) in Kerela is part of the UPA government while JD(S) is part of the LF opposition.  Not clear if JD(U) and JD(S) there will merge.  Of course in Kerela there is no real JD(U) as JD(U) in Kerela now is merely a splinter of JD(S) which merged with the non-existent JD(U) there so they can get a national election symbol to run on.  Jitan Ram Manjhi and his proto-party HMS might make a claim for the existing JD(U) election symbol "the arrow."

[jaichind]

India Today came out with an all-India poll.



The relative vote shares of NDA and UPA seems to be same as May 2014 elections but UPA will lose seats and BJP lose its majority status mostly because of shifts of votes between UPA and non-NDA opposition to defeat NDA if elections were held today.  While the May 2014 elections ended up being an anti-UPA swing plus anti-UPA tactical voting we might be moving into an era of anti-NDA tactical voting as demonstrated by the Delhi Assembly elections.  Also there does seems to be slow revival in the confidence in INC as small erosion in confidence in Modi/NDA.   If so that bodes well for the anti-NDA grand alliance in Bihar later this year.

[jaichind]

I know this is bihar but ABP NEWS – Nielsen Opinion Poll came out with a poll on WB assuming TMC, INC, LF, and BJP contests seperately.



It comes out to

               vote      seats
TMC         36%     198
INC           7%        40
LF            33%       36
BJP          18%       12

INC's support is concentrated so they gain more in seats.  Since 2014 LS elections this poll seems to indicate that TMC and INC dropped a bit while BJP and LF gained a bit but no enough to make a difference in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

ABP News Opinion Poll on Bihar has, assuming it is NDA vs JD(U)+RJD vs INC,


JD(U)+RJD           112
BJP+LJP+RLSP     124
INC                          2

Although if INC joins JD(U)+RJD then NDA would be defeated.

[jaichind]

ABP News-Nielsen Snap Poll for Delhi




AAP             53%
BJP              37%
INC               8%

which pretty much matches the Delhi Assembly results earlier this year.

[jaichind]

ABP News-Nielsen national poll.  Not much has changed from a year ago

NDA          319 (-19)       41% (+2%)
UPA            73 (+13)      24% (-2%)

Seat shifts seems to stem from decline of anti-UPA tactical voting.  Usually at this stage the ruling government should poll higher than their election victory results.  I guess this kinds of is but is really flat overall. 

[jaichind]

India Today poll has



mostly same results as 2014 LS polls

NDA    39% (+0.4%)
UPA     23% (+1.3%)

[jaichind]

The most recent news out of Bihar shows the difficulty of creating a broad anti-NDA alliance.  The effort to merge RJD and JD(U) has hit stags and the issue of seat sharing between RJD and JD(U) has led to a war of words which could split this grand alliance.  Also RJD has warmed up to HAM as a possible alliance partner something JD(U) abhors.   The INC has pro-JD(U) and pro-RJD factions but it seems the pro-JD(U) faction is gaining the upper hand.  There has been talks of HAM joining NDA but it is unlikely given the BJP ambitions in terms of seats it want to contest that NDA can accommodate HAM, which is another  reason for HAM to talk to RJD.  RJD could also be using the threat of joining forces with HAM to increase its leverage over JD(U).  Before  this decline in RJD-JD(U) relations.  The most likely battle lines would be

BJP+LJP+RLSP vs JD(U)+RJD+INC+CPI+CPM+NCP vs HAM.

This is still a very district possibility and will give the anti-NDA grand alliance a slight edge depending on how much votes HAM would take.  But if JD(U) and RJD has a falling out it could become

BJP+LJP+RLSP vs JD(U)+INC+CPI+CPM+NCP vs RJD+ HAM.

Which would clearly work to the NDA's advantage and lead to a likely NDA majority.

There is talk that the reason why RJD is now acting in a why to put the grand alliance in jeopardy is due to a secret BJP-RJD deal where the NDA central government will  not act against Lalu on his pending charges of corruption (he is out on bail) in return for RJD splitting the anti-NDA vote.

Anyway, the JD(U) is still trying to get the alliance back together.  What the JD(U) will propose is that out of the 243 seats, 100 goes to JD(U), 100 goes to RJD, 32 goes to INC, 9 goes to CPI/CPM and 2 goes to NCP.  JD(U) feels that its vote base is larger than RJD so this deal is very fair and what JD(U) will ask in return is that Nitish Kumar become the CM candidate for this alliance.

RJD has a record of overplaying its hand in alliance talks.  2004 LS election was the last time it pulled of an effective and productive coalition talk where RJD+LJP+INC+CPM+NCP grand alliance smashed BJP+JD(U).  Since then we have the two separate 2005 Bihar Assembly where RJD and LJP could not form an alliance and as a result lost to NDA.  In 2009 LS election RJD and LJP formed an alliance but did it as the expense of driving out INC+NCP which made all the difference between winning and losing.  This was replicated in the 2010 Bihar Assembly elections.  In 2014 LS elections the plan was for RJD+LJP+INC+NCP to run.  But RJD drove such a hard bargain that LJP left to join NDA leading to significant defeat for RJD+INC+NCP.  Most of these alliance breakdown stem from RJD's inability to control its various local faction leaders.  The same might be going on now.

There is also talk of RJD and JD(U) going to Sonia Gandhi as a neutral party who has a vested interest in a grand alliance to arbitrate a deal between the two.

[jaichind]

Over in the NDA camp, out of the 243 seats, LJP has asked for 65 seats, RLSP 80 (although that was ratcheted down to 40 right away), while HAM has been demanding 50.  The BJP has hopes of contesting around 200.  Because of all these conflicts it is unlikely HAM will join NDA and most likely run separately.  Also LJP leader Paswan also has demanded that he be projected as the NDA CM candidate.  All BJP allies or potential allies has been raising their demands since the BJP landslide defeat in Delhi since it was clear that for BJP Bihar is now a must win.

[jaichind]

The RJD and JD(U) have apparently settled some of their issues, as they announced that Nitish Kumar will be the CM candidate after a talk with Prasad at the house of the SP's head.

Prasad described the deal as drinking "poison" in order to "crush the hood of this snake, this cobra of communalism"

Yep.  This is a good first step.  RJD mostly came aboard due to pressure from Rahul Gandhi who always was pro-JD(U) in Bihar relative to RJD.  The key step will be working out candidates without rebellion.  The JD(U) and RJD voter base since the mid 1990s has been hostile to each other.  How to allocate seats and then candidates without creating rebellion will be key to beating NDA.  I suspect RJD will now expect a more favorable distribution of seats now that Lalu has agreed to Kumar as CM candidate. 

[jaichind]

With, on paper, the creation of JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP alliances, this limits the options of all other players.  CPM-CPI now has to decide if they should swallow their pride and join this "secular alliance." 

a) Given the relationship between JD(U) and HAM which makes it hard for HAM to join this alliance, HAM can only join NDA or play a spoiler role running by itself.   
b) RJD rebel MP and famous bandit Pappu Yadav, whose wife is an INC MP from Bihar, who was pushing for a RJD-HAM alliance is now all set to break formally with RJD and form his own party, Jan Adhikar Party, or JAP.  JAP might end up joining NDA or form an alliance with  HAM or both. 
c) With the unification of the anti-NDA forces, the pressure is on BJP to try to form its own grand alliance beyond BJP-LJP-RLSP to try to get HAM into NDA.  Of course this will create more pressure on how to seat allocation in NDA.  HAM will want 50+ seats, RLSP 40+, and LJP 80+ while BJP would want to win a majority by itself which would involve contesting 200+ seats.  Of course there is only 234 seats to share.  There is also the pressure to perhaps integrate the newly created Pappu Yadav party JAP.  If the NDA tries to create such a grand alliance it will also face large number of internal rebels as the "secular alliance" is expected to face.

[jaichind]

Looks like HAM will now join NDA.  So now it is most likely JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP-CPI-CPM vs BJP-LJP-HAM RLSP.  At least for  JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP-CPI-CPM there is a rough equation on how to divide the seats (100 each for JD(U) and RJD, 43 for INC-NCP-CPI-CPM assuming CPI-CPM joins and accepts 1-2 seats each.)  For NDA there does not seem to be any consensus on how to divide up the seats.  Of course at the ground level there is likely to be more internal conflict in the anti-NDA camp.