Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

ABP News Opinion Poll on Bihar has, assuming it is NDA vs JD(U)+RJD vs INC,


JD(U)+RJD           112
BJP+LJP+RLSP     124
INC                          2

Although if INC joins JD(U)+RJD then NDA would be defeated.

[jaichind]

ABP News-Nielsen Snap Poll for Delhi




AAP             53%
BJP              37%
INC               8%

which pretty much matches the Delhi Assembly results earlier this year.

[jaichind]

ABP News-Nielsen national poll.  Not much has changed from a year ago

NDA          319 (-19)       41% (+2%)
UPA            73 (+13)      24% (-2%)

Seat shifts seems to stem from decline of anti-UPA tactical voting.  Usually at this stage the ruling government should poll higher than their election victory results.  I guess this kinds of is but is really flat overall. 

[jaichind]

India Today poll has



mostly same results as 2014 LS polls

NDA    39% (+0.4%)
UPA     23% (+1.3%)

[jaichind]

The most recent news out of Bihar shows the difficulty of creating a broad anti-NDA alliance.  The effort to merge RJD and JD(U) has hit stags and the issue of seat sharing between RJD and JD(U) has led to a war of words which could split this grand alliance.  Also RJD has warmed up to HAM as a possible alliance partner something JD(U) abhors.   The INC has pro-JD(U) and pro-RJD factions but it seems the pro-JD(U) faction is gaining the upper hand.  There has been talks of HAM joining NDA but it is unlikely given the BJP ambitions in terms of seats it want to contest that NDA can accommodate HAM, which is another  reason for HAM to talk to RJD.  RJD could also be using the threat of joining forces with HAM to increase its leverage over JD(U).  Before  this decline in RJD-JD(U) relations.  The most likely battle lines would be

BJP+LJP+RLSP vs JD(U)+RJD+INC+CPI+CPM+NCP vs HAM.

This is still a very district possibility and will give the anti-NDA grand alliance a slight edge depending on how much votes HAM would take.  But if JD(U) and RJD has a falling out it could become

BJP+LJP+RLSP vs JD(U)+INC+CPI+CPM+NCP vs RJD+ HAM.

Which would clearly work to the NDA's advantage and lead to a likely NDA majority.

There is talk that the reason why RJD is now acting in a why to put the grand alliance in jeopardy is due to a secret BJP-RJD deal where the NDA central government will  not act against Lalu on his pending charges of corruption (he is out on bail) in return for RJD splitting the anti-NDA vote.

Anyway, the JD(U) is still trying to get the alliance back together.  What the JD(U) will propose is that out of the 243 seats, 100 goes to JD(U), 100 goes to RJD, 32 goes to INC, 9 goes to CPI/CPM and 2 goes to NCP.  JD(U) feels that its vote base is larger than RJD so this deal is very fair and what JD(U) will ask in return is that Nitish Kumar become the CM candidate for this alliance.

RJD has a record of overplaying its hand in alliance talks.  2004 LS election was the last time it pulled of an effective and productive coalition talk where RJD+LJP+INC+CPM+NCP grand alliance smashed BJP+JD(U).  Since then we have the two separate 2005 Bihar Assembly where RJD and LJP could not form an alliance and as a result lost to NDA.  In 2009 LS election RJD and LJP formed an alliance but did it as the expense of driving out INC+NCP which made all the difference between winning and losing.  This was replicated in the 2010 Bihar Assembly elections.  In 2014 LS elections the plan was for RJD+LJP+INC+NCP to run.  But RJD drove such a hard bargain that LJP left to join NDA leading to significant defeat for RJD+INC+NCP.  Most of these alliance breakdown stem from RJD's inability to control its various local faction leaders.  The same might be going on now.

There is also talk of RJD and JD(U) going to Sonia Gandhi as a neutral party who has a vested interest in a grand alliance to arbitrate a deal between the two.

[jaichind]

Over in the NDA camp, out of the 243 seats, LJP has asked for 65 seats, RLSP 80 (although that was ratcheted down to 40 right away), while HAM has been demanding 50.  The BJP has hopes of contesting around 200.  Because of all these conflicts it is unlikely HAM will join NDA and most likely run separately.  Also LJP leader Paswan also has demanded that he be projected as the NDA CM candidate.  All BJP allies or potential allies has been raising their demands since the BJP landslide defeat in Delhi since it was clear that for BJP Bihar is now a must win.

[warandwar]

The RJD and JD(U) have apparently settled some of their issues, as they announced that Nitish Kumar will be the CM candidate after a talk with Prasad at the house of the SP's head.

Prasad described the deal as drinking "poison" in order to "crush the hood of this snake, this cobra of communalism"

[jaichind]

The RJD and JD(U) have apparently settled some of their issues, as they announced that Nitish Kumar will be the CM candidate after a talk with Prasad at the house of the SP's head.

Prasad described the deal as drinking "poison" in order to "crush the hood of this snake, this cobra of communalism"

Yep.  This is a good first step.  RJD mostly came aboard due to pressure from Rahul Gandhi who always was pro-JD(U) in Bihar relative to RJD.  The key step will be working out candidates without rebellion.  The JD(U) and RJD voter base since the mid 1990s has been hostile to each other.  How to allocate seats and then candidates without creating rebellion will be key to beating NDA.  I suspect RJD will now expect a more favorable distribution of seats now that Lalu has agreed to Kumar as CM candidate. 

[jaichind]

With, on paper, the creation of JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP alliances, this limits the options of all other players.  CPM-CPI now has to decide if they should swallow their pride and join this "secular alliance." 

a) Given the relationship between JD(U) and HAM which makes it hard for HAM to join this alliance, HAM can only join NDA or play a spoiler role running by itself.   
b) RJD rebel MP and famous bandit Pappu Yadav, whose wife is an INC MP from Bihar, who was pushing for a RJD-HAM alliance is now all set to break formally with RJD and form his own party, Jan Adhikar Party, or JAP.  JAP might end up joining NDA or form an alliance with  HAM or both. 
c) With the unification of the anti-NDA forces, the pressure is on BJP to try to form its own grand alliance beyond BJP-LJP-RLSP to try to get HAM into NDA.  Of course this will create more pressure on how to seat allocation in NDA.  HAM will want 50+ seats, RLSP 40+, and LJP 80+ while BJP would want to win a majority by itself which would involve contesting 200+ seats.  Of course there is only 234 seats to share.  There is also the pressure to perhaps integrate the newly created Pappu Yadav party JAP.  If the NDA tries to create such a grand alliance it will also face large number of internal rebels as the "secular alliance" is expected to face.

[jaichind]

Looks like HAM will now join NDA.  So now it is most likely JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP-CPI-CPM vs BJP-LJP-HAM RLSP.  At least for  JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP-CPI-CPM there is a rough equation on how to divide the seats (100 each for JD(U) and RJD, 43 for INC-NCP-CPI-CPM assuming CPI-CPM joins and accepts 1-2 seats each.)  For NDA there does not seem to be any consensus on how to divide up the seats.  Of course at the ground level there is likely to be more internal conflict in the anti-NDA camp.

[jaichind]

After RJD rebel MP and famous bandit Pappu Yadav split from RJD over the JD(U)-RJD alliance and formed Jan Adhikar Party, former RJD MP and estranged brother-in-law of Lalu Yadav, Sadhu Yadav, also formed his party,  Garib Janata Dal-Secular.  Sadhu Yadav was pretty much the number person in RJD back in the early 2000s but had a falling out with Lalu in 2009 and joined INC.  In 2014 he pretty much endorsed Modi but was blocked from joining BJP by local Bihar BJP politicans who were rivals of Sadhu Yadav.  Now he is forming his own party and I guess perhaps try to get a few seats from joining NDA.  I doubt they will take him. Pappu Yadav has real local strength and will be much more of a threat to JD(U)-RJD.

[Famous Mortimer]

Pappu Yadav famous for murder of a state legislator from the CPI-M.

[jaichind]

Pappu Yadav famous for murder of a state legislator from the CPI-M.

Yes.  One Ajit Sarkar, MLA of CPM and long time rival to Pappu Yadav was gunned down back in 1998.  To be fair Pappu Yadav was acquitted of thsi murder a few years back.   Anyway  Pappu Yadav is back in the news again

http://www.firstpost.com/india/ill-hit-you-with-a-slipper-pappu-yadav-manhandles-shoves-jet-airways-woman-flight-attendant-2298972.html

It seems that he was on a plane and refused to put his seat in an upright position nor stop using his cell phone.  This ended with him threatening the woman flight attendant.  Well, I guess this is better than being involved in murder.

[jaichind]

BJP has announced that since NDA in Bihar will have to accommodate HAM that it will target to contest 160 seats as opposed to 175 seats out of 243.  There is also talk that BJP might also want to accommodate rebel RJD MP Pappu Yadav's outfit.  While this is a step in the right direction, it still leaves BJP with a mountain to climb to get the math right as that just leaves 83 seats left.  I can see HAM accepting as low as 40 seats, RLSP as low as 30 seats and LJP as low as 60 seats but that be way over 83.  And that does not include seats for Pappu Yadav's party.  Also there is issue of which party gets winnable seats.  As for CM candidate I think all NDA parties has accepted that it will be from the BJP.  But within BJP itself there are several factions fighting over who will be the CM candidate.  In theory it should be Sushil Kumar Modi but his rivals in BJP are pushing for not projecting a CM candidate and using PM Modi as the face of the party.   We will see over the next month what plays out. 

[jaichind]

AAP indicated that they will not run in Bihar but will campaign for JD(U).

BJP ally RLSP as projected its founder/leader Upendra Kushwaha as the CM candidate.  This is most likely a ploy to maximize the number of seats RLSP is allocated.  RLSP has allocated itself 67 seats, LJP 74 seats and BJP 102 seats with no mention of HAM.  LJP and HAM has both indicated that the NDA candidate for CM should be from BJP.  LJP did indicate that they oppose 5 HAM MLAs from joining the alliance since they were LJP rebels that betrayed LJP back in 2005 and 2010 (when LJP was fighting against BJP+JD(U)).

[jaichind]

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood each election in Bihar since 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (JD(U)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)

As one can see, just about every play has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi  and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago where as Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly (for now)
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

[jaichind]

One of BJP's senior Bihar leader C.P. Thakur announced that he wanted to be the NDA CM candidate for Bihar.  The BJP is in a dilemma.  In theory the leader of Bihar BJP is  Sushil Modi (no relation to PM Modi).  But  Sushil Mod's OBC background has the BJP upper caste base somewhat unhappy.   So the compromise was that the BJP has been hinting that perhaps BJP and ergo NDA will not project a CM candidate in the elections.  Now upper caste  C.P. Thakur jumped the gun and threw his hat into the ring.

[jaichind]

Come July 7th there will be a election for the Bihar upper house, or the Bihar Legislative Council.  There are 75 members of the Council and every 2 years around 1/3 are up for re-election.  Just like the India Upper House the election as mostly based on various local assemblies in addition to the Bihar Assembly.  So MLAs will vote to election some MLC (Member of Legislative Assembly), some are elected by various local assemblies, and some are nominated. 

All in all 24 are up for re-election in July.  In the anti-NDA front, the seat allocation are JD(U) 10, RJD 10, INC 3, and NCP 1.  On the NDA front it will be BJP 18, LJP 4, and RLSP 2.  Overall the anti-NDA front are in worst shape in terms of rebellions which is an ominous omen for the Assembly election in the Fall.  As usual both sides has resorted to nominating candidates of very significant criminal backgrounds as these candidates often have the money and muscle power to get the support of various members Bihar or regional assemblies. 

[jaichind]

In 2010 JD(U)-BJP swept the polls with JD(U) winning 115 seats and BJP winning 91 seats out of the 243.  Out of the 115 JD(U) winners about 19 have joined HAM but it is said about half of them want to contest on the BJP ticket.  Most likely BJP will end up contesting about 140-150 seats.  We know that JD(U) will contest 100 seats.  What is interesting is that the way the seats will be divided within both alliances with be an bias toward the current MLAs.  In other words out of the nearly 100 JD(U) sitting MLAs, JD(U) will work to make sure the seats they occupy are the seats that gets allocated to JD(U).  This way chances of rebellion is lowered since the current MLA will have resources to run as a rebel if they are not renominated.  The same logic exists for the nearly 100 BJP MLAs (assuming BJP accepts the 9-10 JD(U) turn HAM MLAs to join and run as BJP). 

So in other words what we will end up with is the seats the BJP currently occupy and end up being allocated to BJP the BJP candidate will almost certainly NOT face a JD(U) candidate but RJD or INC.  And all these seats that JD(U) will be assigned which will be occupied by the current JD(U) incumbent will mostly NOT face a BJP opponent but a NDA ally (HAM or RLSP or LJP.)  So most races will be JD(U) vs BJP ally or BJP vs JD(U) ally (RJD INC or NCP.)  If this is the case watch for RJD to focus all their attacks on the BJP and vice versa in the campaign season in the fall.

[jaichind]

As far as the seat allocation for the NDA, the BJP logic is the following:  There are 243 assembly seats and 40 LS seats.  So it is 6 to 1.  In 2014 BJP ran in 30 LS seats, LJP 7, and RLSP 4 (really 3 since RLSP ran a candidate in a seats that is not allocated to it and won pretty much no votes.)  So the seat allocation should be BJP 180 LJP 42 RLSP 18.  Then since HAM has to be accommodated all three will give up some seats to help HAM and it is OK if most of that comes from BJP.  Ergo BJP logic that BJP should contest 150 seats or so.

RLSP rejects this logic.  It says that LS elections are LS elections and assembly elections and that the seats share has to be renegotiated.   

I feel RLSP has logic and history on its side.  The deals that INC started to make with various Dravidian regional parties (DMK or AIADMK) in TN starting in the 1970s had the this logic:  Since INC is the national party concerned about national politics, then LS elections INC will get a larger seat allocation in the alliance while in assembly election the regional party (DMK or AIADMK)  gets a much larger share of the seat allocation since the main goal of the regional party is to run the state with INC support.  Even the BJP has adopted this logic in its alliance dynamic.  In Maharashtra, both in 2004 and 2009 LS elections, the BJP got 26 out of 48 seats while SHS got 22 out of 48 seats.  But in the assembly elections in Maharashtra in the same years (2004 and 2009) it is roughly 160 for SHS and 120 for BJP.

[jaichind]

Trying to copy what Modi did in the 2014 election campign, JD(U) is coming out with a comic series that depicts Nitsh Kumar's childhood and how he was shaped into the leader that Bihar needs. Not sure this is going to work and most likely might backfire in a place like Bihar.  In TN this might work but not Bihar.




 

[jaichind]

Sitting JD(U) MLA Anant Singh has been arrested for kidnapping and murder.



He has been in trouble with the law for at least a decade on various charges of murder, kidnapping and rape.  None of that seems to have stopped him from being re-elected by ever larger winning margins.  Most likely this arrest will blow over and not get in the way of him being nominated by JD(U) and reelected.  If JD(U) chooses not to nominate him then he will most likely join a NDA party and win on their ticket or run as an independent sinking JD(U)'s chances.  As a result being nominated by JD(U) is and reelected is the most likely outcome.

[jaichind]

Over the course of 24 hours the BJP got hammered by 3 separate scandals which together could impact the image of the BJP in urban areas in Bihar.  It is interesting that all scandals involve up-and-coming BJP women politicians.

First is the Lalit Modi (no relation to PM Modi) scandal.  Lalit Modi was commissioner of cricket's Indian Premier League and was found guilty of committing financial fraud.  Somehow he managed to escape to UK several years ago and the Indian government has revoked his travel documents so he could not travel from UK.  It recently came to light that

Former CM of Delhi and now Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj


and
Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje


Both tried to lobby the UK government to allow Modi to travel even while the official position of the Indian government is that Modi's travel documents are invalid.  It came out in the last 24 hours that there is a signed document by Vasundhara Raje to that affect after Vasundhara Raje denied (or does not recall) that such a document exists.  In many ways these acts can be viewed as treason against the Indian state.

Then we have

Smriti Irani who is Minister of Human Resource Development

 
She is a member of the Upper House and ran unsuccessfully against Rahul Gandhi in 2014 but by making a race of it was consider to be a future heavyweight in the BJP.  It seems that she had claimed  in her election paperwork that she got a degree from Yale U if the USA.  It turns out all she did was attend a 6 day seminar at Yale U.  Just yesterday the Delhi high court ruled that it will hear this case based on their view that there is enough evidence for possible election fraud.

Lastly we have

Pankaja Munde Minister of Rural DevelopmentWomen and Child Welfare for Maharashtra


She is actually very big cheese in the Maharashtra BJP as she is the daughter of the deceased leader of the Maharashtra BJP Gopinath Munde whose would mostly would been CM if he did not had an untimely death in an accident in 2014.  Pankaja Munde now accused of giving out government contracts for distribution of food to poor/tribal children to various vendors without a bidding process which is a must under the law.  It turns out a lot of these vendors are non-existent and other have been convicted of selling rotton food and already been blacklisted by the government.   There is talk that it is the BJP CM Fadnavis  himself that could have leaked this to the media as it is possible that Fadnavis sees Pankaja Munde  as a long term threat to his position as leader of the BJP in Maharashtra.

[jaichind]

There seems to be a cheating scandal in Bihar where hundreds of parents are sending in cheat sheets on entrance exams



100+ parents and 7 policeman are arrested although before this the Bihar government seems to indicate that they are powerless to stop cheating. 700+ students are expelled. 

Speaking of cheating on exams.  For the upcoming Bihar Legislative Council (upper house) election on July 7th, a candidate of special attention is one Ranjit Singh alias Ranjit Don which is nominated by the LJP. 



The reason why is because Ranjit Singh is known as the kingpin of all big exam paper leaks.  He has a record of organizing massive exam paper sales for almost two decades as well as some time in jail for leaking medical entrance questions papers.  His exam paper cheating empire is not limited to Bihar but extends to several Indian states.  BTW, Ranjit Singh himself got into college back in the 1990s with, you guessed it, forged documents as well as high exam scores based on having a copy of the exam questions ahead of time.

[jaichind]

Sitting JD(U) MLA Anant Singh has been arrested for kidnapping and murder.


 
He has been in trouble with the law for at least a decade on various charges of murder, kidnapping and rape.  None of that seems to have stopped him from being re-elected by ever larger winning margins.  Most likely this arrest will blow over and not get in the way of him being nominated by JD(U) and reelected.  If JD(U) chooses not to nominate him then he will most likely join a NDA party and win on their ticket or run as an independent sinking JD(U)'s chances.  As a result being nominated by JD(U) is and reelected is the most likely outcome.

It seems like the real reason why Anant Singh was arrested was because Lalu Yadav had enough of him and his various crime sprees and pressured Nitish Kumar to have him arrested ahead of the election and keep him there.   For sure he is guilty but he has been guilty many other times.  This time he is guilt AND ran foul with a major political power broker.  Anant Singh's supporters now know the gig is up and to show their strength and their ability to make trouble for the JD(U) they went on a rampage in parts of Patna.  We will see how this develops.