Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

In the aftermath of the NDA landslide in 2014 I wrote

As for what INC should do, just like the DPJ after the 2012 Japan elections, there is no time to waste.  There must be a generational shift to younger leaders and party cannot just count on the Gandhi's the deliver the votes.  I would also push for alliances with TMC in WB, DMK in TN, BJD in Orissa, try to go for a grand alliance of RJD JD(U) and INC in Bihar, alliance with AUDF in Assam, alliance with AAP in Delhi/Punjab/Harayana, alliance with BSP in MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgrah, andalliance with JD(S) in Karnataka.  There are no easy options in UP.  The best I can think of is alliance with BSP but that is fraught with great danger.

It seems they did do some of the things I mentioned.  In fact I explicitly referred to what was necessary in Bihar as a "grand alliance."   The news phase is what sort of alliances can be formed in WB TN and Assam for next year.

In WB the slope of the BJP seems to be going downward.  In fact at this stage it will either be AITC + INC vs BJP vs Left Front or Left Front + INC vs AITC vs BJP.  I guess it can be also a 4 way battle.  There are two factions in INC. One faction says that BJP is finished in WB anyway so there should be a grand alliance of INC and Left Front to take on AITC.  Another factions says it is key to keep AITC away from BJP so the best way is to be a junior partner of AITC.  Besides AITC can be helpful in places like Assam.  Both AITC and Left Front are also trying to get JD(U) and RJD on their side by trying to get the Nitish Kumar magic to rub off on themselves.  it seems that unless somehow the BJP can form an alliance with AITC which seems unlikley given the bad blood between AITC and Modi the NDA will be nowhere next year in WB Assembly elections.

In Assam the state is turning into a J&K.  Lower Assam is like Kashmir.  Parts of Lower Assam is already Muslim majority and the Muslim percentage of the population continues to surge.  Upper Assam is like Jannu where it is still dominated by Assamese Hindus with some Muslim population.  The Bodo regions are dominated by tribal which are like the Tibetian Buddhist region of Lakdh in J&K.  In Lower Assam it is mostly AUDF vs INC with BJP having a chance if Hindu AGP voters tactically vote for BJP.  In Upper Assam it is BJP vs INC vs AGP with an advantage for BJP IF AGP voters votes tactically for BJP  In Bodoland it is BPF vs various anti-BPF forces.  Both BPF  and these anti-BPF forces can and could align with BJP or INC or even AGP.  This time around it seems that BPF might go with BJP but this is not locked down yet.  In theory INC wants tactical alliances with AUDF in Upper Assam to beat back BJP but AUDF will seek concessions in Lower Assam which INC might not want to give.  The anti-BJP grand alliance the INC wants to form might be with AITC or AUDF or even AGP if AGP is desperate to avoid being wiped out by BJP as the Hindu Assamese party.  The key to if BJP can repeat its amazing 2014 LS performance in LS election is if it still can get the AGP vote bloc to vote for BJP as THE anti-INC party.  If AGP does well then BJP is sunk.  If AUDF makes a real investment in Upper Assam it could also sink INC.  The result will depend on these two factors.

[BundouYMB]

In the aftermath of the NDA landslide in 2014 I wrote

As for what INC should do, just like the DPJ after the 2012 Japan elections, there is no time to waste.  There must be a generational shift to younger leaders and party cannot just count on the Gandhi's the deliver the votes.  I would also push for alliances with TMC in WB, DMK in TN, BJD in Orissa, try to go for a grand alliance of RJD JD(U) and INC in Bihar, alliance with AUDF in Assam, alliance with AAP in Delhi/Punjab/Harayana, alliance with BSP in MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgrah, andalliance with JD(S) in Karnataka.  There are no easy options in UP.  The best I can think of is alliance with BSP but that is fraught with great danger.

It seems they did do some of the things I mentioned.  In fact I explicitly referred to what was necessary in Bihar as a "grand alliance."   The news phase is what sort of alliances can be formed in WB TN and Assam for next year.

In WB the slope of the BJP seems to be going downward.  In fact at this stage it will either be AITC + INC vs BJP vs Left Front or Left Front + INC vs AITC vs BJP.  I guess it can be also a 4 way battle.  There are two factions in INC. One faction says that BJP is finished in WB anyway so there should be a grand alliance of INC and Left Front to take on AITC.  Another factions says it is key to keep AITC away from BJP so the best way is to be a junior partner of AITC.  Besides AITC can be helpful in places like Assam.  Both AITC and Left Front are also trying to get JD(U) and RJD on their side by trying to get the Nitish Kumar magic to rub off on themselves.  it seems that unless somehow the BJP can form an alliance with AITC which seems unlikley given the bad blood between AITC and Modi the NDA will be nowhere next year in WB Assembly elections.

In Assam the state is turning into a J&K.  Lower Assam is like Kashmir.  Parts of Lower Assam is already Muslim majority and the Muslim percentage of the population continues to surge.  Upper Assam is like Jannu where it is still dominated by Assamese Hindus with some Muslim population.  The Bodo regions are dominated by tribal which are like the Tibetian Buddhist region of Lakdh in J&K.  In Lower Assam it is mostly AUDF vs INC with BJP having a chance if Hindu AGP voters tactically vote for BJP.  In Upper Assam it is BJP vs INC vs AGP with an advantage for BJP IF AGP voters votes tactically for BJP  In Bodoland it is BPF vs various anti-BPF forces.  Both BPF  and these anti-BPF forces can and could align with BJP or INC or even AGP.  This time around it seems that BPF might go with BJP but this is not locked down yet.  In theory INC wants tactical alliances with AUDF in Upper Assam to beat back BJP but AUDF will seek concessions in Lower Assam which INC might not want to give.  The anti-BJP grand alliance the INC wants to form might be with AITC or AUDF or even AGP if AGP is desperate to avoid being wiped out by BJP as the Hindu Assamese party.  The key to if BJP can repeat its amazing 2014 LS performance in LS election is if it still can get the AGP vote bloc to vote for BJP as THE anti-INC party.  If AGP does well then BJP is sunk.  If AUDF makes a real investment in Upper Assam it could also sink INC.  The result will depend on these two factors.

Once again, very informative, thanks. What's expected to happen in Kerala?

[jaichind]

Yes.  I am about to write about TN and Kerela.  Most likely I will create a new thread on 2016 India Assembly elections since all of them will be in the Spring.

In TN, it is the land of ever shifting alliances.  In 2014 it was AIADMK vs DMK + VCK + PT +MMK + IUML vs BJP + DMDK + MDMK + PMK vs INC.  CPI and CPM were suppose to join AIADMK but rejected the AIADMK "lousy" deal of 1 seat each.  A good part of the anti-AIADMK vote share went to the NDA while INC vote share split out from DMK front lead to a AIADMK landslide.  The relationship AIADMK and the Left Front has with BJP has always been weird.  Jayalalitha seems to have this ability to be a natural partner of both BJP and Left Front.  Neither seems to mind doing deals with AIADMK know that tomorrow  AIADMK might do a deal with the other.   Anyway, soon after the elections INC started to fall apart. G K Vasan whose father lead a split from INC creating TMC only to rejoin it a few years later recreated the TMC and pretty much taking what is left of the INC vote base with it.  Things are so bad in INC in TN that INC high command seems happy there is another internal rebellion brewing in the TN INC because at least it puts the INC in news headlines in TN.  Things are so bad for the NDA front as also as it pretty much fell apart after the elections.  DMDK seems to want to create a front of its own with its leader Vijayakanth  as the CM candidate and it would join ally with BJP if the BJP accepted that which the BJP will not.  Same thing for PMK where it is creating a separate front  and insist that PMK leader Ramadoss must be the CM candidate.  MDMK VCK CPI and CPM formed a front called People’s Welfare Front (PWF) which refused to back DMK but seems open with trying to get DMDK to join it.  All this leaves BJP nowhere and most likely will try to join up with AIADMK who will turn BJP down based on the fact that BJP has nothing to offer and only bring anti-BJP vote against AIADMK.    All these developments is fairly negative for DMK as the only way the DMK can take on AIADMK is to build a broad anti-AIADMK alliance which seems unlikely.  It is not clear where TMC will go but that is the only viable party for DMK to ally with.  On current trends AIADMK will break the TN assembly record of never re-election the incumbent party after 1984.  In the TN Assembly elections of 1989 1991 1996 2001 2006 and 2011 the incumbent party always loses.  The only ways AIADMK could be beaten is if DMK TMC INC DMDK MDMK and PMK plus various minor parties gang up on AIADMK.  Does not seem that likely despite all talks by all non-AIADMK parties to form a grand alliance.

[jaichind]

As for Kerela the main battle will be between the INC led UDF versus the CPM LDF.  Christians and Muslims tend to vote UDF while Hindus tend to vote LDF.  The BJP has been trying to break in for years but the BJP vote base which is at least 10% if not greater tends to, at the end vote tactically for UDF to try to beat LDF.  The BJP has been on the rise here and could gain vote share but is unlikely gain that much in terms of seats.  Going by history it seems that the ruling UDF is doomed to defeat.  Every since 1977 when various on again and off again calibration between INC and CPI ceased the structure of  UDF vs LDF began every election would alternate between UDF and LDF.  UDF won in 1977 1982 1991 2001 and 2011 while LDF won in 1980 1987 1996 and 2006.  So 2016 will most likely be LDF.  The rise of the BJP on the long run should worry LDF more since BJP will eat into the Hindu base of LDF.   

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So how much did the BJP's call for the reservation system for lower caste people to be revised hurt them? Just by sheer numbers lower caste folks dominate the electorate, and the BJP sounding like an upper-caste party must have hurt them significantly.

[jaichind]

So how much did the BJP's call for the reservation system for lower caste people to be revised hurt them? Just by sheer numbers lower caste folks dominate the electorate, and the BJP sounding like an upper-caste party must have hurt them significantly.

It was not really BJP but a RSS leader that called for reviewing reservation system for OBCs.  Once can never know how much it hurt but it did provoke the BJP to try to counteract it by running against Yadavs (Jungle Raj) to try to hang on to the non-Yadav OBC and EBC vote.  This really backfired as the BJP plan was to capture the Yadav vote by running a bunch of Yadav candidates and hoping the JAP could split the Yadav vote.  Instead the Yadav vote which had considered voting for BJP given their hostility toward JD(U) voted en bloc for Grand Alliance.  The other game changer was a BJP leader and minister VK Singh compared the two Dalit children burned alive in Haryana in a caste war conflict to "dogs."  Again, one cannot be sure how much this hurt the NDA but this sent the BJP into an anti-Muslim mobilization mode to try to counteract it.  It did not work and merely provoked a massive Muslim consolidation in favor of Grand Alliance.

[Frodo]

Glad the government got the message to shed its cultural hardline agenda and get cracking on economic reforms, which it should have been doing from the get-go:

Two Days After Bihar Setback, Modi Government Unleashes Big Bang FDI Reforms

NDTV | Last Updated: November 10, 2015 17:11 (IST)

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[jaichind]

Today's Chanakya who was very accurate in 2014 LS elections, especially in UP, came out with numbers very different from others.   NDA 155 Grand Alliance 83.  

This exit poll also asked about current government performance which was mostly poor and if there is need for change of government which was 51% yes.  If so then NDA will win a majority.   it just goes against CW that Nitish Kumar is still viewed positively.

Today's Chanakya now claims they reason why their exit poll was way off is because they had a software problem where the party code was swapped.  Meaning they really meant to project Grand Alliance at 155 seats as opposed to NDA. I cannot believe they can try to come up with an excuse like this.  It would mean they have zero QA when the result they publish is at complete odds with the raw data they collected.  It also means that other poll results that they have are at odds with their real projection results.  Their own tweets had a clear net majority wanting a change in government.  How can their survey conclude a landslide for Grand Alliance when the same people surveyed desired a change in government by large margins.  I cannot believe they can come up with this excuse with a straight face.

[jaichind]

Now that BJP is beaten badly in Bihar, the various NDA allies are coming out of the woodwork asking for their pound of flesh from a weakened BJP.  In Jharkhand where the BJP only has a majority with the AJSU alliance the BJP earlier this year managed to get 6 out of 8 JVM MLAs to defect over to make sure that AJSU cannot blackmail BJP's government.  Now that BJP is beaten it is said that these 6 JVM MLAs are upping their prices in terms of minister-ships or else they will defect back.  AJSU seeing that their leverage is back is forcing the issue with a critical by-election.

Back in 2014 Jharkhand assembly elections, Kamal Kishore Bhagat, a AJSU leader was narrowly elected in Lohardaga beating the INC candidate with BJP support.  Now Bhagat has been convinced of murder from a case from 1993 and will now be sent to jail for seven years which is a shock for AJSU supporters as Bhagat is a fairly popular leader of AJSU.  It seems Bhagat murdered a doctor while trying to blackmail him back in 1993.

Kamal Kishore Bhagat



This vancency opens up a by-election.  To remain his influence Bhagat decided to marry a nurse Neeru Shanti right before he is about to go to jail.

Wedding between Bhagat and Shanti



Later, as expected AJSU nominated Neeru Shanti as the AJSU candidate for the by-election.  AJSU also demanded that BJP back and actively campaign for Neeru Shanti or else the AJSU will withdraw support for the BJP government while the 6 JVM MLA defectors are also making noises of more bribes or they will bail too.  INC and JMM plan to contest this by-election together after contesting separately last time allowed AJSU to win this seat. 

So now BJP has a choice to make.  Risk the Jharkhand government or pay blackmail to the 6 JVM MLAs as well as AJSU and at the same time dragging the reputation of the BJP government through the mud.

[jaichind]

Official results out.  I grouped them into the 4 alliances.  The Third Front and Left Front did not have perfect alliances as they did seem to have overlapping candidates in the same district.  Of course NCP and NPP left the Third Front in the middle of the election only added to this.  I also looked at the independents and grouped them where I can identify them as rebels of the larges parties so we can get an idea the impact of rebels of all types on their respective alliances.
  

                            Contested                Win                  Vote Share
Grand Alliance            243                   178                      42.91%
 JD(U)                        101                     71                      17.26%
 RJD                           101                     80                      18.82%
 INC                            41                      27                        6.83%

JD(U) rebels                  8                        1                        0.53%
RJD rebels                   10                        0                        0.47%
INC rebels                     4                        0                        0.15%


NDA                          243                     58                       34.95%
 BJP                           157                     53                       25.04%
 LJP                             42                       2                         4.95%
 RLSP                          23                       2                         2.63%
 HAM                           21                       1                         2.33%

BJP rebels                    27                       3                         1.70%
LJP rebels                      6                       0                         0.28%


Third Front                316                      0                          3.03%
 JAP                          109                       0                          1.38%
 SP                            135                      0                          1.04%
 NCP                           41                       0                          0.50%
 SSP                           24                       0                          0.09%
 SJP                             4                        0                          0.01%
 NPP                            3                        0                          0.01%


Left Front                 261                       3                          3.65%
 CPI(ML)(L)                98                        3                          1.58%
 CPI                           98                        0                          1.39%
 CPM                          43                       0                           0.62%
 SUCI                        10                        0                           0.03%
 FBL                            9                        0                           0.02%
 RSP                            3                        0                           0.01%  


BSP                         228                        0                           2.12%
SHS                          73                        0                           0.57%
AIMIM                         6                        0                           0.22%

A lot of Grand Alliance rebels ran Third Front tickets but it does seem that the rebellion in NDA was larger than originally expected and most likely cost them a dozen seats.  BJP also made the mistake, in retrospect, of giving too many seats to allies which failed to carry the BJP core vote or lost votes to BJP rebels.  The independent vote, even after accounting for major party rebels, pull in a lot more votes than expected which meant this election was less polarizing than reported.

[jaichind]

Sitting JD(U) MLA Anant Singh has been arrested for kidnapping and murder.



He has been in trouble with the law for at least a decade on various charges of murder, kidnapping and rape.  None of that seems to have stopped him from being re-elected by ever larger winning margins.  Most likely this arrest will blow over and not get in the way of him being nominated by JD(U) and reelected.  If JD(U) chooses not to nominate him then he will most likely join a NDA party and win on their ticket or run as an independent sinking JD(U)'s chances.  As a result being nominated by JD(U) is and reelected is the most likely outcome.

Anant Kumar Singh was not renominated by the JD(U) after being put in jail on charges of murder, kidnapping and rape.  He then ran as an independent from behind bars and ran against the official JD(U), LJP, and JAP.  He won with 37.4% of the vote.  It was Anant Kumar Singh 37.4% JD(U) 24.7% JAP 11.5% LJP 10.7%.  It seems that Anant Kumar Singh won because he kept part of the JD(U) vote base, JAP took the Yadav vote which would otherwise have been transferred to JD(U), and Anant Kumar Singh being an upper caste himself took part of the BJP upper caste vote base which was not transferred to the NDA LJP candidate.  So the split of the Grand Alliance and NDA vote base allowed Anant Kumar Singh to get through.  

[jaichind]

Tejashwi Yadav, son of Lalu Yadav and age 26 was appointed deputy CM of Bihar.  He used to be a budding cricketer before turning to politics.

[jaichind]

Frontline map on results


Indian Express map of results



Indian Express also made a chart similar to my chart on the matrix of contests.  Its main take away ws the same as my "RJD, Cong beat BJP harder than JD(U) does" which implies JD(U) base went over to RJD INC but not the RJD nor INC base when JD(U) is running.

[jaichind]

One last set of statistics I did not get to run through is the vote share of all the parties within the seats they ran for the Grand Alliance and NDA to see the level of vote transfer between allies.  What we find are

Grand Alliance      Seats Contested    Seats won    Vote Share
   JD(U)                      101                      71              40.5%
   RJD                         101                      80              44.2%     
   INC                          41                       27              39.4%

NDA                     Seats Contested    Seats won    Vote Share
   BJP                         157                      53               37.4%
   LJP                           42                        2                28.7%
   RLSP                        23                        2                27.4%
   HAM                         21                        1                26.8%

On the Grand Alliance side part of why INC's vote share is lower is as the weaker ally partner it got lower quality seats from a winnable point of view.  RJD and JD(U) are mostly equal so the vote share difference can mostly be explained by the fact that RJD was less effective at transferring its vote base to JD(U) as opposed to the other way around.  Higher number of RJD rebels as well as some JAP candidates seems to have taken those votes that were meant for JD(U)

On the NDA side it is clear that what made the NDA defeat greater than what it could have been was that the BJP was not effective in transferring its vote base over to its allies.  The large number of BJP rebels as well as the significant votes they captured are a testament to this.