Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

NDTV exit poll has NDA 125 Grand Alliance 110

[jaichind]

A Lokniti-CSDS post election poll (not exit poll) has Grand Alliance getting a greater vote share relative to before the election.  It went from losing to NDA 38%-42% to winning 42%-38%.

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN had planned to release an exit poll in its post election program.  It has commissioned  Axis APM to conduct this exit poll.  But when the results of this exit poll, the results were so out of line with every other exit poll CNN-IBN decided to not present it on its TV program.  The  Axis APM poll had

Grand Alliance 176 NDA 62 with the INC itself getting 27 seats out of the 40 it was contesting.   It also had Grand Alliance with 48% of the vote versus NDA 36%.   CNN-IBN asked for the raw data from Axis APM and was rejected.   This poll is the mirror image of the Today's Chanakya.

 



This poll is bold in that it came out with exact predictions for every seat.  It will be interesting to see how this pans out seat-by-seat.

[jaichind]

It seems that looking at all the firm that did a pre-poll survey AND an exit poll, the exit poll is always more pro-Grand Alliance that the pre-poll survey.  It seems to me that the momentum is on the side of the Grand Alliance and most likely most exit polls are underestimating such a momentum.    Today's Chanakya who was the most accurate in 2014 LS calls for a NDA landslide just like Axis APM who was the most accurate in the Delhi 2015 Assembly elections calls for a Grand Alliance landslide.  I will just consider both canceling each other out.  If I had to guess I will call for a signification Grand Alliance victory.  Something like

Grand Alliance     145       45%
NDA                      80       40%

[jaichind]

Counting begins.

[jaichind]

NDA                  5
Grand Alliance   4

[jaichind]

NDA                  9
Grand Alliance   6

[jaichind]

NDA                 13
Grand Alliance    8

[jaichind]

NDA                  15
Grand Alliance   10

[jaichind]

NDA                  16
Grand Alliance   11

[jaichind]

NDA                  27
Grand Alliance   13

Momentum going with NDA.  Lots of gains for BJP allies.

[jaichind]

NDA                  36
Grand Alliance   18

[jaichind]

NDA                  46
Grand Alliance   23
Others                1

[jaichind]

NDA                  55
Grand Alliance   26
Others                2

NDA clearly have upper hand and will most likely win.  Issue now is by how much.

[jaichind]

NDA                  58
Grand Alliance   32
Others                2

[jaichind]

NDA                  65
Grand Alliance   34
Others                3

[jaichind]

NDA                  72
Grand Alliance   37
Others                4

[jaichind]

NDA                  76
Grand Alliance   44
Others                4

[jaichind]

NDA                  78
Grand Alliance   47
Others                4

[jaichind]

NDA                  82
Grand Alliance   49
Others                4

NDA momentum still there but seems to be slowing down.  This might be closer than these numbers suggest. 

[jaichind]

NDA                  84
Grand Alliance   52
Others                5

[jaichind]

NDA                  85
Grand Alliance   55
Others                5

[jaichind]

NDA                  88
Grand Alliance   59
Others                5

[jaichind]

NDA                  90
Grand Alliance   60
Others                5

[jaichind]

NDA                  90
Grand Alliance   63
Others                4