Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

AIMIM which had wanted to contest in 24 seats eventually scaled it back down to 6.  It also seems to have made a deal with Grand Alliance to back Grand Alliance in the rest of Bihar.  Its main goal is to make an impact in UP next year so it did not want to be seen being the reason that the anti-BJP Grand Alliance is defeated in Bihar.  This turn of events could help consolidate Muslim vote behind Grand Alliance.


New AIMIM ad

[jaichind]

JD(U) suspended minister Awadhesh Kushwaha after a video emerged with him taking a bribe for work on behalf of certain interests in a future JD(U) led government.  He will not be renominated by the JD(U)

Awadhesh Kushwaha


Video link
https://youtu.be/JEK7kPaMu9A?t=75

One thing that is funny about the video is the picture of Gandhi in the background of this minister's home.  It makes it look like that Gandhi is witnessing this bribe as well in addition to the hidden camera.

[jaichind]

57% turnout in phase I of Bihar elections.  In 2010 it was 51% turnout in the same areas and in 2014 LS election turnout was 55% in the same area.  So the turnout is more like 2014 LS election than 2010.  In theory that should be good for NDA although the high turnout could also just reflect the highly competitive nature of the election.

[jaichind]

Phase I voting areas



As noted before, turnout was at 57% and it seems to be concentrated in rural areas as well as women voters (women turnout was 4% higher than men turnout) as ECI tracks turnout by gender.  In theory high turnout should help NDA, but rural areas and women voters are where Grand Alliance are stronger so the trend so far seems to be a wash between the two sides.

[jaichind]

Phase II voting is tomorrow.  They will cover

[jaichind]

After phase I, both Grand Alliances and NDA claimed victory.  But it seems that internal sources from NDA shows that NDA is nervous based on feedback that phase I did not work in their favor, espcially from the BJP allies.  Right after phase I was over Modi has canceled several rallies as well as BJP pulling some billboards with Modi on it and replaced with billboard with various local BJP leaders.  The word is that fearing defeat the BJP wanted to try to separate Modi from the Bihar election. 

[jaichind]

It seems that the political chatter gives grand alliance an edge over NDA after first two rounds the bookies still has NDA winning by 7% and 50 seats over Grand Alliance.  Of course the bookies were wrong about Delhi ealier this year and lost a bundle.

[jaichind]

Third phase coming up in a week  In this round 68% RJD, 62% BJP and 56% JD(U) candidates face criminal charges.  



It seems that even within the NDA camp there is chatter that admits the first two phases did not go well.  The NDA was hoping that the OBC vote bank of JD(U) and RJD splinters due to internal rivalries but various statements by the RSS indicating that they back scrapping reservations for OBC and Dalits seems to have consolidated OBC vote behind Grand Alliance.  Also the NDA hope was that the Dalit vote breaks for NDA but it seems the rural Dalits of phase 1 and phase 2 broke for Grand Alliance.  Phase 5 is heavy with Muslims which NDA concedes will go for Grand Alliance since AIMIM does not seem to have much impact.  So it will be up the more urban Phase 3 and Phase 4 for the NDA to try to catch-up.  The NDA is hoping that at least urban Dalits would break for NDA which seems reasonable except now there is an incident in BJP ruled Harayana where two Dalit children were murdered when the Dalit house was set on fire from a upper caste men who had a conflict with this Dalit famliy which was related to Dalit-Upper Caste rivalries in that village.  This incident is getting national attention in the media. This could not have come at a worse time for NDA as social composition of their election alliance was a Upper Caste-Dalit combination.  Urban Dalits will hear about this news and might react in the way they vote.  

[jaichind]

http://m.timesofindia.com/elections/bihar-elections-2015/news/Bihar-polls-Grand-Alliance-displaces-NDA-in-satta-race-punters-give-Nitish-Lalu-127-129-seats-NDA-110/articleshow/49604867.cms

NDA recovered some ground after third phase. Before the first two phases the bookies had NDA at around 150 seats.   After the first two rounds thw bookies had NDA at around 90 seats.  Now the bookies has NDA at around 110 seats which means NDA is still behind but not by that much. 

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of 2014 election results on a booth by booth basis to formulate factors are for NDA and factors which are for Grand Alliance. 

[jaichind]

Right before phase 5 are to begin the BJP came out with an ad on cow protection with a girl hugging a cow.  It called for defending the cow from insults such as alleged discussions of eating beaf.

[jaichind]

5th and final phase is in progress.  This phase contain regions dominated by Muslims and Yadavs and should give the Grand Alliance a large edge over NDA.   Exit polls should be available once voting ends in this phase.

[jaichind]

The Indian equity market clearly prefers for NDA to win as that would perhaps give NDA at the central government the momentum to push for more economic reforms.   The markets looks like has priced in the possibility of NDA defeat where as a few months ago the markets were certain that NDA would win.  NDA win should mean Indian market goes up 1%-2% and NDA defeat means markets fall 1%-2%.

[jaichind]

Voting ends.  News projects NDA 126 seats Grand Alliance 110 seats

[jaichind]

C voter has Grand Alliance at 122 seats and NDA at 111 seats

[jaichind]

India.com has Grand Alliance at 125 NDA at 105

[jaichind]

India Today has NDA 120 Grand Alliance 117

[jaichind]

News Nation has Grand Alliance 122 NDA 117

[jaichind]

Voting ends.  News projects NDA 126 seats Grand Alliance 110 seats

Now NewsX projects Grand Alliance 135 NDA 95.  Not sure what is going on here

[jaichind]

ABP exit poll for the first 3 phases but has Granad Alliance 78 NDA 51. 



ABP 4th phase has NDA 33 Grand Alliance 20
ABP 5th phase has Grand Alliance 32 NDA 24

ABP total has Grand Alliance 130 NDA 108

[jaichind]

Average of 6 exit polls has Grand Alliance 125 NDA 109.  I rather be Grand Alliance than NDA right now especially when the remaining 9 seats are going to be a combo of NCP MIM Left Front SP etc etc.  All of whom are much more likely to do a deal with Grand Alliance than NDA.

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of polls came up with similar numbers as my.  125 vs 110 in favor of Grand Alliance.

[jaichind]

Today's Chanakya who was very accurate in 2014 LS elections, especially in UP, came out with numbers very different from others.   NDA 155 Grand Alliance 83.  

This exit poll also asked about current government performance which was mostly poor and if there is need for change of government which was 51% yes.  If so then NDA will win a majority.   it just goes against CW that Nitish Kumar is still viewed positively.

[jaichind]

I have never seen an exit poll situation where most exit polls have a close result with a slight advantage for one side but one exit poll has a landslide for another.  Will be interesting to see the real result.  My gut feeling is that if the trend is indeed a small vote share advantage for Grand Alliance which is what most exit polls are showing.  Then the seat count for Grand Alliance is undercounted.  This is because the NDA has large vote share leads in the urban seats which is about 10% of seats.  But for the overall vote share lead for Grand Alliance to hold the lead must be somewhat higher in the rural seats which is the remaining 90%  This small extra advantage will deliver a lot of seats to Grand Alliance in marginal rural areas.

[jaichind]

Today's Chanakya exit poll is interesting in terms of vote share  They have NDA 46% (+/-3%) Grand Alliance 39% (+/-3%).  So it is NDA 49%-43% Grand Alliance 42%-36%.  Newsx had Grand Alliance 42% (+/-2.5%) NDA 39% (+/-2.5%).  So it is Grand Alliance 44.5%-39.5% and NDA 41.5%-36.5%.  So in terms of NDA vote share one of the two exit polls will be WAY OFF.