Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

 IndiaTV-C-Voter opinion poll survey.  NDA 117 seats with 43% of the vote, "Grand Alliance" (JD(U)-RJD-INC) 112 seats with 42% of the vote, Others 14 seats.  So neck-to-neck.

This sort of result kinds of makes sense.  In LS 2014 it was

BJP-LJP-RLSP      39.5%
INC-RJD-NCP      30.3%
JD(U)-CPI           17.2%

If we add INC-RJD-NCP and JD(U)-CPI we get 47.5%.   But NCP and CPI broke away. In 2010 Bihar assembly election NCP and CPI ran by themselves and both got around 1.8% of the vote each.  So without these two parties INC-RJD-NCP would be at 44%.    Now take into account the defection of HAM from JD(U) to NDA which lets call it 2%, this would put BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM at 41.5% and  "Grand Alliance" at 42%.

Now it is true that NDA lost a lot of luster since the 2014 Modi landslide.  But on the flip side the merging of two hostile social basis of JD(U) and RJD also must have cost it defections which we must include Pappu Yadav's JAP.  AIMIM's entry trying to target Muslim votes.  So the poll is mostly saying that these factors mostly cancel each other out.

Now the candidate list of are mostly out the infra-front conflict will come to the  fore especially in the "Grand Alliance" so we might expect the polling numbers of drop for the "Grand Alliance."  All things equal it seems that the poll is indicating a slight advantage for NDA because I believe the poll has not reflected the conflict between RJD's Yadav social base and the JD(U)'s  Kushwahas and Kurmis social bases.  

What is positive for "Grand Alliance" is that 46.8% want Nitish Kumar to be CM.

[jaichind]

BJP Bihar MP Raj Kumar Singh blasts the Bihar BJP unit for selling tickets to contest to criminals.  Several BJP MLAs who were not renominated also are making similar claims.  Raj Kumar Singh has non-political background and only joined in 2013 to contest on the BJP ticket in the 2014 election.  He is known for a clean image when it comes to fighting corruption.  I suspect what is going on is that in several seats the sitting BJP MLA does not match the caste profile the BJP is looking for as part of its strategy of going after the Yadav and other OBC vote. So they had to search for a local kingpin that fit that profile.  It could be that money changed hands but the main motivation is the right caste balance.

[jaichind]

Sitting JD(U) MLA Anant Singh has been arrested for kidnapping and murder.



He has been in trouble with the law for at least a decade on various charges of murder, kidnapping and rape.  None of that seems to have stopped him from being re-elected by ever larger winning margins.  Most likely this arrest will blow over and not get in the way of him being nominated by JD(U) and reelected.  If JD(U) chooses not to nominate him then he will most likely join a NDA party and win on their ticket or run as an independent sinking JD(U)'s chances.  As a result being nominated by JD(U) is and reelected is the most likely outcome.

It seems that Anant Singh has resigned from JD(U) and will contest as an independent from behind bars.  Anant Singh comes from the powerful Bhumihar upper caste and is still a powerful force.  Most likely he will split the "Grand Alliance" vote and throw the election race to the NDA.  

Another JD(U) MLA  Sunil Pandey



Who is also behind bars for helping a  gangster escape from judicial custody was also denied a ticket from JD(U) and will also most likely contest as an independent from behind bars.   Sunil Pandey is also from the Bhumihar caste.

[jaichind]

Rebels of all stripes from NDA or "Grand Alliance" that were not given tickets are flocking to SP-NCP-JAP-SJP-SSP-NPP or the Secular Socialist Front especially SP.  More often than not they are from parties of the "Grand Alliance" so this front will hurt the "Grand Alliance" the most.  JAP (the Pappu Yadav party) which will go after the key Yadav vote is the biggest threat.

[jaichind]

What Patna looks like now with all the election campaign billboards.

[jaichind]

BJP is trying to break into the OBC and EBC vote base of the "grand alliance" by promising that the next BJP CM in Bihar will NOT be from a upper caste.  I guess BJP if figuring that it has the upper caste vote base locked up.  Of course INC is explicitly trying to go after the upper caste vote base.  We will see how this plays out.  My hunch is the BJP gamble will work an the upper caste at this stage is so anti-Lalu that they will still go with NDA.

[warandwar]

BJP is trying to break into the OBC and EBC vote base of the "grand alliance" by promising that the next BJP CM in Bihar will NOT be from a upper caste.  I guess BJP if figuring that it has the upper caste vote base locked up.  Of course INC is explicitly trying to go after the upper caste vote base.  We will see how this plays out.  My hunch is the BJP gamble will work an the upper caste at this stage is so anti-Lalu that they will still go with NDA.

Pretty classic BJP tactic. Modi, of course, is also OBC.

[jaichind]

BJP is trying to break into the OBC and EBC vote base of the "grand alliance" by promising that the next BJP CM in Bihar will NOT be from a upper caste.  I guess BJP if figuring that it has the upper caste vote base locked up.  Of course INC is explicitly trying to go after the upper caste vote base.  We will see how this plays out.  My hunch is the BJP gamble will work an the upper caste at this stage is so anti-Lalu that they will still go with NDA.

Pretty classic BJP tactic. Modi, of course, is also OBC.

In theory Modi belongs to Teli caste where in Bihar he would count as EBC which was carved out of OBC.  In theory EBC vote should be the deciding factor in this election. EBCs are not politically active leaders so this large voting bloc could go either way.  Traditionally they vote with the landlord they work for but that clientelist relationship is breaking down in a lot of places.

[warandwar]

BJP is trying to break into the OBC and EBC vote base of the "grand alliance" by promising that the next BJP CM in Bihar will NOT be from a upper caste.  I guess BJP if figuring that it has the upper caste vote base locked up.  Of course INC is explicitly trying to go after the upper caste vote base.  We will see how this plays out.  My hunch is the BJP gamble will work an the upper caste at this stage is so anti-Lalu that they will still go with NDA.

Pretty classic BJP tactic. Modi, of course, is also OBC.

In theory Modi belongs to Teli caste where in Bihar he would count as EBC which was carved out of OBC.  In theory EBC vote should be the deciding factor in this election. EBCs are not politically active leaders so this large voting bloc could go either way.  Traditionally they vote with the landlord they work for but that clientelist relationship is breaking down in a lot of places.

Think you're simplifying this a bit. Depends where the EBC would live, of course. Plenty of places where they would vote for CPI at some point, for example.

[jaichind]

BJP is trying to break into the OBC and EBC vote base of the "grand alliance" by promising that the next BJP CM in Bihar will NOT be from a upper caste.  I guess BJP if figuring that it has the upper caste vote base locked up.  Of course INC is explicitly trying to go after the upper caste vote base.  We will see how this plays out.  My hunch is the BJP gamble will work an the upper caste at this stage is so anti-Lalu that they will still go with NDA.

Pretty classic BJP tactic. Modi, of course, is also OBC.

In theory Modi belongs to Teli caste where in Bihar he would count as EBC which was carved out of OBC.  In theory EBC vote should be the deciding factor in this election. EBCs are not politically active leaders so this large voting bloc could go either way.  Traditionally they vote with the landlord they work for but that clientelist relationship is breaking down in a lot of places.

Think you're simplifying this a bit. Depends where the EBC would live, of course. Plenty of places where they would vote for CPI at some point, for example.

Yes, my statement is only in the context of Bihar.  EBC is really a designation that only exists in Bihar anyway, outside Bihar Teli caste would just be OBC.

[jaichind]

In the first round of seats to go to polls there are 583 candidates for 49 seats.  Out of the 583 candidates  130 have serious criminal cases against them including related to murder.  Using rule of thumb that candidates facing serious criminal charges are twice as likely as those that do not, 18 out of the 49 winners should be one of these candidates facing these serious criminal cases.

[jaichind]

Zee news poll has NDA at 147 seats 53.8% of the vote and "Grand Alliance" at 64 seats with 40.2% of the vote.  6 seats will go to others and the rest are neck-to-neck.  Again the crosstabs are problematic at it has the NDA only losing the Muslim vote 35.9 vs 57.9 and only losing the Yadav vote only 43.7 vs 50.2.  If these crosstabes hold true then I am pretty sure that NDA will win close to 200 seats and not 147 plus some tossups.  The seat share does not jive with vote share in this poll. 

[jaichind]

Lokniti-CSDS poll has NDA ahead 42-38 in terms of vote share. 




It is neck-to-neck in rural seats but NDA clearly ahead in urban seats. 



Looking at the breakdown on "giving Nitish Kumar another chance" shows that it is the EBC and Mahadalit which will be decisive on who will win.  It also seems that Lalu Yadav is a major drag on the "Grand Alliance."

[jaichind]

New IndiaTV-C-Voter opinion poll survey has similar results as the previous survey.   NDA 119 seats with 43% of the vote, "Grand Alliance" (JD(U)-RJD-INC) 116 seats with 41% of the vote, Others 5 seats.  So still neck-to-neck.

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN & Axis poll has Grand Alliance ahead with 46% of the vote and 137 seats while NDA has 38% of the vote and 95 seats.





Grand alliance wil win the Muslim vote 72-10, Yadav vote 67-21 but lose the Upper Caste vote 14-73

The poll seems to indicate that BJP will win 82 seats with 29% of the vote, LJP 2 seats with 4%, HAM 8 seats with 3% of the vote, and RLSP 3 seats with 2% of the vote.  For the Grand Alliance the poll expect JD(U) to win 69 seats with 26% of the vote, RJD 48 seats with 15% of the vote and INC 20 seats with 5% of the vote.  In other words it expects BJP to do well against RJD but JD(U) will crush the BJP allies.  INC result is a surprise and could signal that despite everything the INC strategy of going after the Upper Caste vote is working in localized areas.

[jaichind]

A CNN-IBN average of all polls BEFORE the very positive poll for Grand Alliance just now yields NDA at 43% with 118 seats and Grand Alliance at 42% and 112 seats.

Usually in these elections one front pulls a head in the end and will lead to a stamped affect so the margin of victory will end up being larger than 1%.  It is just hard to tell now which front that is.

[jaichind]

On funny story about Lalu Yadav's sons who are contesting for the first time this election which the BJP is harping about.  It seems that the official age of Lalu's older son Tej Pratap as per the ECI is 25 while the official age of Lalu's younger son Tejaswi is 26.  RJD claims the records are wrong while BJP is crying fraud. 



Tej Pratap



Tejaswi Yadav

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) -- The incumbent JDU and its partners seen leading with 122 seats in a survey by India Today-Cicero before polling begins in the state on Oct. 12.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP seen trailing with 111 seats
Other parties est. to win 10 seats: India Today-Cicero survey

The vote share for this poll is Grand Alliance 41% NDA 39% and does represent a slight improvement for Grand Alliance from Sept.


 

[jaichind]

Happier times.  Earlier this year, Lalu Yadav's daughter was married to the grandnephew of SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav who himself is a SP MP.   PM Modi was also in attendance along with the new couple as well as Lalu, Lalu's wife who herself is a former Bihar CM, and Mulayam who is the leader of SP and former UP CM.

Now Lalu and Modi are fighting to the death in the Bihar elections.  Lalu also had a falling out with SP with his own son-in-law now campaigning against his own father-in-law on behalf of the SP led front.

[jaichind]

Times of India poll has NDA ahead in terms of vote share 42-38.  It did not project seat count.   It does have Nitish Kumar having a higher approval rate than Modi.

[jaichind]

ABP News-Nielsen survey has NDA at 128 seats and Grand Alliance at 122 seats with others at 3 seats.

[jaichind]

SHS who is running in 150 seats claim that in Maharashtra SHS has never indulged in any kind of anti-migrant (Bihari) movement or atrocities on migrants.  This is clearly a false statement given the track record of SHS in Maharashtra.

[warandwar]

SHS who is running in 150 seats claim that in Maharashtra SHS has never indulged in any kind of anti-migrant (Bihari) movement or atrocities on migrants.  This is clearly a false statement given the track record of SHS in Maharashtra.

Shiv Sena lying! Heavens to Betsy!

[jaichind]

Elections will be in 5 phases.  The phases are

Oct 12th   49 seats
Oct 16th   32 seats
Oct 28th   50 seats
Nov  1st    55 seats
Nov  5th    57 seats

One of the reasons for breaking elections up into phases so security forces can shift to the right areas to ensure that bandits and Maoist rebels does not disrupt the voting.

[jaichind]

Around 33% of phase II candidates face serious criminal charges as opposed to around 23% in Phase I, although that ratio goes up to around 70% for BJP, JD(U) and RJD candidates.  The rule of thumb is that candidates with criminal background have a 2 to 2.5 times higher chance to win than a non-criminal candidate.  One of the reasons why is parties that have a realistic chance of winning tend to nominate criminal background candidates as they often can deliver local muscle power that can be added to the local party based to deliver victory.