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Author Topic: USAT/Suffolk National  (Read 3737 times)
Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
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« on: September 30, 2015, 11:34:58 AM »

Trump 23
Fiorina 13
Carson 13
Rubio 9
Bush 8
Cruz 6
Kasich 2
Huckabee 2
Paul 2
Christie 1
Jindal 1
Graham 1
Pataki 0
Santorum 0
Gilmore 0
Undecided: 18

RCP has a real problem including polls with and without the undecided option in the same average. i.e. if Trump has 30% of the electorate, one poll has him at 30 with no undecideds, and the other has him at 22.5 with 25% undecided, it’s the same ratio but it looks like a huge dip.
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Donald Trump 2016 !
captainkangaroo
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2015, 11:41:34 AM »

This looks right. Thought that Christie would be a little higher than 1% though.
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Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2015, 12:14:43 PM »

All of them should be a little higher because of the 18% undecideds. 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2015, 12:39:04 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2015, 01:42:38 PM by Mr. Morden »

Full results given here:

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_30_2015_marginals.pdf

Updated trendlines from all national polls:


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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2015, 01:20:13 PM »

1: Trump
2: Carson & Fiorina
3: Rubio, Bush & Cruz
4: The Rest.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2015, 01:44:31 PM »

This is part of a larger poll of the general electorate, and they included questions about various candidates, asking respondents to give one word that best describes Trump and Fiorina.  Here are the top responses:

Trump:
idiot/jerk/stupid/dumb 10%
arrogant 6%
crazy/nuts 6%
buffoon/clown/comical/joke 5%
unfavorable/dislike him 4%
egotistical/narcissist/selfish 4%

Fiorina:
smart/intelligent/knowledgeable 10%
dishonest/liar/untrustworthy 6%
strong/tough 5%
favorable/okay/like 5%
idiot/evil/joke/cold 4%
unfavorable/dislike 3%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2015, 02:37:19 PM »

Wow, only 6 candidate above 2%.
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Why
Unbiased
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2015, 10:54:46 PM »

1: Trump
2: Carson & Fiorina
3: Rubio, Bush & Cruz
4: The Rest.

Something like that, although Cruz probably could be put below Rubio and Bush on a level by himself.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2015, 11:25:48 PM »

1: Trump
2: Carson & Fiorina
3: Rubio, Bush & Cruz
4: The Rest.

Something like that, although Cruz probably could be put below Rubio and Bush on a level by himself.

Yup - it's not just polling but relative performance, which is why Bush needs a ranking all to himself
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Why
Unbiased
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2015, 07:09:17 AM »

1: Trump
2: Carson & Fiorina
3: Rubio, Bush & Cruz
4: The Rest.

Something like that, although Cruz probably could be put below Rubio and Bush on a level by himself.

Yup - it's not just polling but relative performance, which is why Bush needs a ranking all to himself

That is not what I said.
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A Perez
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2015, 09:57:24 AM »

The democratic is due at noon.
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Gallium
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2015, 11:59:22 AM »

Dem numbers:

Clinton 41%
Sanders 23%
Biden 20%
Chafee 1%
Webb, O'Malley, Lessig 0%

So Chafee would have finally qualified for the Democratic debate even without CNN's rule change. Lessig meanwhile...
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2015, 12:00:35 PM »

Dem numbers:

Clinton 41%
Sanders 23%
Biden 20%
Chafee 1%
Webb, O'Malley, Lessig 0%

So Chafee would have finally qualified for the Democratic debate even without CNN's rule change. Lessig meanwhile...

Congratulations to Webb and O'Malley for doing worse than Chafee.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2015, 12:10:45 PM »

Lessig got 0.46%. Close, but no cigar.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2015, 12:36:47 PM »



Note that the "candidate in a word" thing is for all voters, but the primary matchup #s are for Democratic primary voters only.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: June 16, 2016, 11:04:52 PM »

Fiorina is in 2nd!!!!
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