NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances (user search)
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  NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances  (Read 8040 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« on: February 17, 2015, 11:40:33 PM »
I guess it all depends on which tea leaves you want to look at. This analysis of post-WW2 trends is bad for the Dems. And there is the precedent that the younger candidate tends to win (and everyone is younger than Hillary)

Then there are things that show Dem advantages:
- 'Keys to the Whitehouse' model (also based on fundamentals)
- Demographic analysis trend
- Betting odds
- Polls (w/ Hillary)

So there is something for everybody to hang hat on
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2015, 05:05:22 PM »
Quote from: TheElectoralBoobyPrize on February 18, 2015, 12:13:40 PM
Quote from: Likely Voter on February 17, 2015, 11:40:33 PM
- 'Keys to the Whitehouse' model (also based on fundamentals)

Uh...by my count, the Dems are only one key away from defeat.

According to the author of the 'keys' model, she is two away (as of last summer)
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/208673-why-democrats-need-hillary-clinton-in-2016
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