Why winning in 2016 will be bad for both parties (user search)
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  Why winning in 2016 will be bad for both parties (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why winning in 2016 will be bad for both parties  (Read 6799 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 31,685
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« on: February 03, 2015, 12:26:25 AM »

Unless a Republican President has <40% approval, 2018 will result in an increased number of republican senators. The only plausible democratic pickup is NV (AZ isn't going atlas red in a midterm absent an absolute democratic tsunami), ND/IN will almost certainly flip, MO/MT will start with a definite republican advantage, if Manchin retires WV will almost certainly flip (if Manchin runs for reelection he should be okay), and OH/WI/VA/PA/MI/FL/MN (if Klobuchar retires)/NM could all flip in the right situation/climate. Remember, midterm turnout skews republican naturally, so even a republican president at 44/53 approval (or thereabouts) wouldn't be toxic, and republicans would still net at least 1 senate seat.

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,685
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2015, 02:05:30 AM »

Unless a Republican President has <40% approval, 2018 will result in an increased number of republican senators. The only plausible democratic pickup is NV (AZ isn't going atlas red in a midterm absent an absolute democratic tsunami), ND/IN will almost certainly flip, MO/MT will start with a definite republican advantage, if Manchin retires WV will almost certainly flip (if Manchin runs for reelection he should be okay), and OH/WI/VA/PA/MI/FL/MN (if Klobuchar retires)/NM could all flip in the right situation/climate. Remember, midterm turnout skews republican naturally, so even a republican president at 44/53 approval (or thereabouts) wouldn't be toxic, and republicans would still net at least 1 senate seat.




Only times a party has maid gains in congress in the last 100 years has been 1934 and 2002
Lolol. Now if you had said 'party holding the presidency' instead of just 'party' you might be right (too lazy to go through wikipedia and check),but since you just said party you're hilariously wrong.

And please learn correct grammar and spelling.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,685
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2015, 02:37:22 AM »

Unless a Republican President has <40% approval, 2018 will result in an increased number of republican senators. The only plausible democratic pickup is NV (AZ isn't going atlas red in a midterm absent an absolute democratic tsunami), ND/IN will almost certainly flip, MO/MT will start with a definite republican advantage, if Manchin retires WV will almost certainly flip (if Manchin runs for reelection he should be okay), and OH/WI/VA/PA/MI/FL/MN (if Klobuchar retires)/NM could all flip in the right situation/climate. Remember, midterm turnout skews republican naturally, so even a republican president at 44/53 approval (or thereabouts) wouldn't be toxic, and republicans would still net at least 1 senate seat.




Only times a party has maid gains in congress in the last 100 years has been 1934 and 2002
Lolol. Now if you had said 'party holding the presidency' instead of just 'party' you might be right (too lazy to go through wikipedia and check),but since you just said party you're hilariously wrong.

And please learn correct grammar and spelling.


A Republican win in 2018 wont happen if a Republican is in the white house no matter how favorable the map is as the party controlling the white house will lose in midterm elections unless there is national security threat like Terrorism was in 2002 or the president inherited a catastrophic economy which caused the other party to be really unpopular like the Republicans were in 1934
I have a very hard time seeing Heitkamp and/or Donnelly getting re-elected. Donnelly only got elected because Mourdock imploded, and Heitkamp is good, but she's not skilled enough to pull off two miracle
elections in a blood-red state absent a huge democratic wave.

I really lIke both of them and want them to win again. But I realize it's probably not going to happen.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,685
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2021, 01:37:28 AM »

Unless a Republican President has <40% approval, 2018 will result in an increased number of republican senators. The only plausible democratic pickup is NV (AZ isn't going atlas red in a midterm absent an absolute democratic tsunami), ND/IN will almost certainly flip, MO/MT will start with a definite republican advantage, if Manchin retires WV will almost certainly flip (if Manchin runs for reelection he should be okay), and OH/WI/VA/PA/MI/FL/MN (if Klobuchar retires)/NM could all flip in the right situation/climate. Remember, midterm turnout skews republican naturally, so even a republican president at 44/53 approval (or thereabouts) wouldn't be toxic, and republicans would still net at least 1 senate seat.



Some errors here (AZ and MT) but overall this take was solid.
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