Why winning in 2016 will be bad for both parties

[jaichind]

Another factor is elected offices at the local level.  The 2008-2014 period has been especially harsh for the Dems at the state legislative level.  This is on top of a fairly harsh 8 1994-2000 period for the Dems (although nowhere as bad as 2008-2014) at the state legislative level followed by a relatively mild set of losses by the GOP in 2000-2008.  The best way for the Dems to recapture ground at the state legislative level is to make sure they do not win in 2016 and the best way for the GOP to cement its domination at the state legislative level is for it to lose in 2016 (although it has to be at a narrow non-wave margin.)  The reason why this is important is the state legislature sort of a farm league for higher offices and the GOP domination of these these lower offices means its farm league will be better than the Dems for years to come.  Of course the winner of 2016 will get it certain preferred policy mix, but that comes at a cost.