Will this happen in Washington anymore?
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  Will this happen in Washington anymore?
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Author Topic: Will this happen in Washington anymore?  (Read 1961 times)
bgwah
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« on: April 22, 2005, 11:54:36 PM »

Now that Washington has a top two primary, what are the chances that both candidates will be from the same party?

Looking at past primary results, one can see that in 1976, 1980, and 1996, the top two vote-getters in the primaries were both Democrats. This also happened in the 1970 and 1976 senate elections, as well as several other statewide offices--all two democrats.

2004
38.73-Gregoire (D)*
34.15-Rossi (R)
17.55-Sims (D)

2000
54.23-Gary Locke (D)*
34.52-John Carlson (R)

1996
23.65-Gary Locke (D)*
17.50-Norman Rice (D)
15.26-Ellen Craswell (R)
13.37-Dale Foreman (R)

1992
29.23-Mike Lowry (D)*
22.37-Ken Eikenberry (R)
21.67-Sid Morrison (R)
12.47-Dan McDonald (R)

1988
57.64-Booth Gardner (D)*
20.07-Bob Williams (R)
14.89-Norm Maleng (R)

1984
46.07-Booth Gardner (D)*
26.20-John Spellman (R)
22.91 Jim McDermott (D)

1980
33.04-Jim McDermott (D)
24.09-Dixie Lee Ray (D)
16.70-John Spellman (R)*
15.91-Duane Berentson (R)

1976
24.09-Dixie Lee Ray (D)*
23.28-Wes Uhlman (D)
21.77-John Spellman (R)
16.00-Marvin Durning (D)
13.14-Harley Hoppe (R)

1972
30.27-Albert D. Rosellini (D)
24.66-Daniel J. Evans (R)*
21.48-Martin J. Durkan (D)
11.00-Perry B. Woodall (R)
10.87-Jim McDermott (D)




Will parties make an effort not to divide their vote up too much? Or, if only one main candidate is running, will they still get their base out to make sure they get into the general?
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2005, 11:57:25 PM »

It very well could if we have a popular incumbnent or a very close race and the Republican vote is heavily split.
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bgwah
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2005, 12:18:44 AM »

It very well could if we have a popular incumbnent or a very close race and the Republican vote is heavily split.

Maybe we could get some 3rd parties in there! Oh wait, nevermind. They'd only make it in WA-7. And even then the Democrats would still win.

Maybe the American Heritage Party can make a comeback in Eastern Washington.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2005, 12:31:29 AM »

It very well could if we have a popular incumbnent or a very close race and the Republican vote is heavily split.

Maybe we could get some 3rd parties in there! Oh wait, nevermind. They'd only make it in WA-7. And even then the Democrats would still win.

Maybe the American Heritage Party can make a comeback in Eastern Washington.

The American Heritage Party did well in Eastern Washington at one time? That's scary. When?
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bgwah
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« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2005, 01:22:25 AM »

It very well could if we have a popular incumbnent or a very close race and the Republican vote is heavily split.

Maybe we could get some 3rd parties in there! Oh wait, nevermind. They'd only make it in WA-7. And even then the Democrats would still win.

Maybe the American Heritage Party can make a comeback in Eastern Washington.

The American Heritage Party did well in Eastern Washington at one time? That's scary. When?

EHhhh, sort of. In 1998 they got over 5% in the 4th and 5th districts for congress. But still 3rd. Not TOO impressive.

What I'm remembering is District 14 rep#1 for legislature.

They got 2nd place with 23.22%.


They seem to have disappeared after 1998 though.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2005, 01:37:54 PM »

Could voters vote in either party's primary before? (I'm assuming they could, since otherwise those figures of yours are only explainable through heavy turnout swings - jsut askign to be sure)
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bgwah
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« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2005, 03:29:35 PM »

Could voters vote in either party's primary before? (I'm assuming they could, since otherwise those figures of yours are only explainable through heavy turnout swings - jsut askign to be sure)

I think so....You could pick a Democrat for Senate and a Republican for governor.

It's basically the same thing now--except that instead of the top person from each party it's the top two people period.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2005, 03:06:30 AM »

Could voters vote in either party's primary before? (I'm assuming they could, since otherwise those figures of yours are only explainable through heavy turnout swings - jsut askign to be sure)
Washington does not have party registration of voters.  In a "blanket primary" voters can vote for any candidate regardless of party for each office.  Nonetheless, the votes were tallied as if they were for separate primaries to determine who went forward to the general election.

There was an additional little twist.  Minor parties could only nominate one candidate.  If they received enough votes (1%?) they would advance to the general election ballot.

This system was put in place around 1920, and had been used for 70+ years when the US Supreme Court ruled it unconstitutional in a California case that was later applied to Washington.California Democratic Party v Jones

California had recently switched to a blanket primary.  California was somewhat different in that it had party registration, and also that voters could vote in the primary of any party.  The decision noted a case where two Libertarians were contesting a race for a local office, and the combined total of votes was many times grater than the number of registered Libertarians.  They argued that minor parties did not necessarily seek to elect their nominee, but rather use his candidacy to put forward certain issues, and that allowing non-members to participate, could dilute or corrupt the party's message.

For the 2004 election, Washington used a so-called Montana primary, where candidates from all parties appear on each ballot, but the voter indicates (in secret) which party's primary he wishes to vote in.  This avoids party registration.  Voters, of course might choose their party based on which party has the more interesting races, especially if it was for a top of the ticket office such as Senator or Governor.

Washington approved the new Louisiana-style primary in November.  California voters defeated a similar measure.  In both cases, opponents use the spectre of an Edwin Edwards-David Duke gubernatorial contest to encourage No votes.  The difference in result may be that Washington was going back to something they were familiar with, it had the support of the Grange who had promoted the original system, and had never had party registration.
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