OK 2018: Boren open to running

[Skill and Chance]

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

Ah yes, a collapse in the state's chief export commodity would surely make them more receptive to the Democratic Party.

That worked out so well in West Virginia and Kentucky...

WV and KY were controlled in ironclad fashion by Democrats during the heyday of said commodity.  OK and TX for that matter are completely dominated by Republicans.  If things go south at the state and local level, who else is there to blame? 

Obama

In 2018?  Okay, Bush was still pretty toxic in CA/NY/MA in 2010, but what if oil falls to $25 and stays there throughout the 2020's with a 2 term Republican president elected in 2016?  Of course those are big assumptions, but if you're looking for a world in which OK and TX can plausibly elect a bunch of statewide Democrats prior to 2040, that's it. 

[Indy Texas]

I don't see how any of that stops the Republicans, who would have been in power in OK the entire time, from saying, "B- b- but, it's the EPA and the Department of Energy's fault! And if Barack Hussein Obama hadn't passed all those job-killing environmental regulations from 2009 to 2017, none of this would have happened!"

[RFayette]

I don't see how any of that stops the Republicans, who would have been in power in OK the entire time, from saying, "B- b- but, it's the EPA and the Department of Energy's fault! And if Barack Hussein Obama hadn't passed all those job-killing environmental regulations from 2009 to 2017, none of this would have happened!"

I could see Oklahoma electing statewide democrats before TX, as TX seems to have a more diverse economy (not just oil/NG) at this point.  Obama's Presidency would be a tough one to overcome.  Of course, if a GOP President is elected for 8 years and oil stays at $25/barrel, barring a recession or major war, said President would be quite popular.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

I cannot believe we are already discussing races for 2018.....Welcome to the future!

[Skill and Chance]

I don't see how any of that stops the Republicans, who would have been in power in OK the entire time, from saying, "B- b- but, it's the EPA and the Department of Energy's fault! And if Barack Hussein Obama hadn't passed all those job-killing environmental regulations from 2009 to 2017, none of this would have happened!"

I could see Oklahoma electing statewide democrats before TX, as TX seems to have a more diverse economy (not just oil/NG) at this point.  Obama's Presidency would be a tough one to overcome.  Of course, if a GOP President is elected for 8 years and oil stays at $25/barrel, barring a recession or major war, said President would be quite popular.

Great point.  North Dakota and Alaska would also be likely to feel the crunch earlier and react before Texas.  They're also less culturally conservative than Oklahoma.  Of course, this would probably have to involve oil prices being cut in half again after Obama leaves office.  And yes, $25 oil would probably give the GOP president 60% approval nationally, but we have seen this kind of divergence before with extractive industries, e.g. 1988 and 2012.

[Miles]

^ Also, smaller states lend themselves more to retail politics, whereas larger states tend to be harder for the party they lean against.

[Boston Bread]

Is the average Oklahoman so dependant on the oil industry that they would see low gas prices as a bad thing? Maybe in ND where the return on oil investment is lower and there is a lower population. But for the most part it should be Obama who is seeing electoral dividends for presiding over a drop in oil prices.

[Xing]

Ugh, I hate Boren, though he'd probably be the Dems best chance at winning, even though he'd definitely be an underdog.

[Suburbia]

Dave McCurdy, former Oklahoma congressman should run for governor in Okla. as well in 2018. He is another moderate Democrat.

http://articles.philly.com/1991-04-04/news/25778003_1_buffalo-chips-democratic-leadership-council-war-plans

http://articles.latimes.com/1994-12-07/news/mn-5990_1_leadership-council

http://newsok.com/article/2485955

[Maxwell]

I could be wrong, but Boren likes to tease the Democrats of the state. And personally, I think Dan Boren is pretty useless - he's just as bad as the Republicans here.

[Miles]

^ I do remember him saying in an interview that his ideal job would be Governor of OK, though. Otherwise, yeah, he'd be as useless as Evan Bayh.

[Rockefeller GOP]

^ I do remember him saying in an interview that his ideal job would be Governor of OK, though. Otherwise, yeah, he'd be as useless as Evan Bayh.

... Coming from Miles?  You don't seem like you'd be one to throw around the DINO criticism.

You're not getting Ted Kennedy in Southern states.

[Maxwell]

^ I do remember him saying in an interview that his ideal job would be Governor of OK, though. Otherwise, yeah, he'd be as useless as Evan Bayh.

... Coming from Miles?  You don't seem like you'd be one to throw around the DINO criticism.

You're not getting Ted Kennedy in Southern states.

There's a difference between Ted Kennedy and someone who was completely and totally embraced and loved by Republican leadership and out right recited Republican talking points, like Dan Boren has. You can get someone who is centrist enough to win in the South without doing that. That's how John Bel Edwards won, that's how Brad Henry won in the past.

I'd much prefer Joe Dorman, even if he lost to Fallin last time.

[Miles]

^ I do remember him saying in an interview that his ideal job would be Governor of OK, though. Otherwise, yeah, he'd be as useless as Evan Bayh.

... Coming from Miles?  You don't seem like you'd be one to throw around the DINO criticism.

You're not getting Ted Kennedy in Southern states.

I meant useless from an electoral perspective, not ideologically - he's the only Democrat who could win, but it would be frustrating if he doesn't. Evan Bayh is an even worse example, as he's sitting on almost $10 million, IIRC, but won't run.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - THE only Democratic candidate, who has chances to win in present day Oklahoma. As correctly noted - Oklahoma is NOT going to elect even a centrist Democrat, much less a progressive. And he will be still less far-right that ANY feasible republican candidate. So, in case he will run - 100% of my personal support.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Why are Democrats here complaining that Dan Boren will essentially govern as a Republican, while Republicans are fine with Phil Scott in Vermont likely governing from the left of many Democrats?

[Maxwell]

Why are Democrats here complaining that Dan Boren will essentially govern as a Republican, while Republicans are fine with Phil Scott in Vermont likely governing from the left of many Democrats?

Because Republicans here are mostly liberal Republicans who just like the Republican label for some reason (nostalgic, maybe). I want someone who will actually advance at least some sort of change from the deeply conservative status quo here. Again, there is a difference between a Democrat who is kind of to the right of most Democrats on certain issues and a Democrat who literally spent his time in Congress reciting Republican talking points. Even for Governor, Dan Boren's nomination would just further legitimize Republican rule over the state.

There are quite a few Republicans in Oklahoma I'd rather have Governor than Dan Boren.

[smoltchanov]

Why are Democrats here complaining that Dan Boren will essentially govern as a Republican, while Republicans are fine with Phil Scott in Vermont likely governing from the left of many Democrats?

Because Republicans here are mostly liberal Republicans who just like the Republican label for some reason (nostalgic, maybe). I want someone who will actually advance at least some sort of change from the deeply conservative status quo here. Again, there is a difference between a Democrat who is kind of to the right of most Democrats on certain issues and a Democrat who literally spent his time in Congress reciting Republican talking points. Even for Governor, Dan Boren's nomination would just further legitimize Republican rule over the state.

There are quite a few Republicans in Oklahoma I'd rather have Governor than Dan Boren.

I repeat: ANY such Republican will be MORE conservative then Boren, and, undoubtely, will "further legitimize Republican rule over the state". So, i will prefer Boren...

[Maxwell]

Why are Democrats here complaining that Dan Boren will essentially govern as a Republican, while Republicans are fine with Phil Scott in Vermont likely governing from the left of many Democrats?

Because Republicans here are mostly liberal Republicans who just like the Republican label for some reason (nostalgic, maybe). I want someone who will actually advance at least some sort of change from the deeply conservative status quo here. Again, there is a difference between a Democrat who is kind of to the right of most Democrats on certain issues and a Democrat who literally spent his time in Congress reciting Republican talking points. Even for Governor, Dan Boren's nomination would just further legitimize Republican rule over the state.

There are quite a few Republicans in Oklahoma I'd rather have Governor than Dan Boren.

I repeat: ANY such Republican will be MORE conservative then Boren, and, undoubtely, will "further legitimize Republican rule over the state". So, i will prefer Boren...

well I'm actually from Oklahoma. Mick Cornett may be more conservative on policy papers, but I'd absolutely trust him far more to be independent and stand up to the Republican legislature on things that matter. I do not trust Dan Boren.

I'll concede as much as I kind of wish he would run for his old district - Boren isn't good at all but I'd rather have a representative who does ANYTHING over someone who is completely useless like Markwayne Mullin.

[smoltchanov]

Why are Democrats here complaining that Dan Boren will essentially govern as a Republican, while Republicans are fine with Phil Scott in Vermont likely governing from the left of many Democrats?

Because Republicans here are mostly liberal Republicans who just like the Republican label for some reason (nostalgic, maybe). I want someone who will actually advance at least some sort of change from the deeply conservative status quo here. Again, there is a difference between a Democrat who is kind of to the right of most Democrats on certain issues and a Democrat who literally spent his time in Congress reciting Republican talking points. Even for Governor, Dan Boren's nomination would just further legitimize Republican rule over the state.

There are quite a few Republicans in Oklahoma I'd rather have Governor than Dan Boren.

I repeat: ANY such Republican will be MORE conservative then Boren, and, undoubtely, will "further legitimize Republican rule over the state". So, i will prefer Boren...

well I'm actually from Oklahoma. Mick Cornett may be more conservative on policy papers, but I'd absolutely trust him far more to be independent and stand up to the Republican legislature on things that matter. I do not trust Dan Boren.

Well, may be, and of course you have personal knowledge i don't. But my criterion is purely political and has nothing with trust: Oklahoma, IMHO, will NOT elect anyone to the left of Boren in foreseable future, so (from my centrist point of view) it must be Boren as "most liberal" of all ELECTABLE alternatives...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Anything can happen, Smolts. Sicily is run by gay communist, Maryland by a rightist Republican etc.

[pbrower2a]

Am I the only person who doesn't understand how when the Socialist Party was semi-relevant in the early 20th century, Oklahoma was one of their best states?

I don't see the contradiction.  Oklahoma has always been socially conservative, but when the vast majority/plurality of the population practiced subsistence agriculture and lived through the Dust Bowl, the left was strong there.  When the majority of the population now has easy access to $50-150K oil-related jobs and can continue to live the 1950's social conservative lifestyle on those incomes due to the low cost of living, the left basically ceases to exist.

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

So Oklahoma was kind of like a populist state during the early part of the 20th Century, but shifted to a more conservative state beginning in the 1950s.

True. It was very much a D state in Presidential elections as late as 1948 (see Utah, if for very different reasons), and it has since voted only once for a Democratic nominee, like Utah. It didn't even vote for Bill Clinton, who should have had some cultural affinity to Oklahoma.

Having driven several times through Oklahoma on US 69 from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, and again in 2012, I could see Oklahoma as superficially more attractive than the rural parts of some other states (like Indiana) because it was newer. In 2012 it seemed badly decayed. That's the difference in 20 years when people tend to do things on the cheap.   

[smoltchanov]

Anything can happen, Smolts. Sicily is run by gay communist, Maryland by a rightist Republican etc.

Didn't know about Sicily, but Hogan is far from being rightist... Pragmatic moderate conservative..

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

anything can happen. I think you have a bit of an overly clean image of politics, where every politician is on a neat line from "very lefty" to "very righty" and voters carefully pick based on how close they are on the line to the candidates. The truth is, very few voters care about ideology, and will happily vacillate between leftists and rightists depending on who speaks nicest, or who has the nicest haircut.

[smoltchanov]

anything can happen. I think you have a bit of an overly clean image of politics, where every politician is on a neat line from "very lefty" to "very righty" and voters carefully pick based on how close they are on the line to the candidates. The truth is, very few voters care about ideology, and will happily vacillate between leftists and rightists depending on who speaks nicest, or who has the nicest haircut.

May be... I, naturally, use myself as "typical voter", but i may be non-typical after all....